The Monster Storm Thread

[IndianaJonesDDT]

Here we can all post our opinions on the upcoming "Monster". Feel free to post any maps that you like. Here's my map/opinion:

[SnowGod]

The ETA(GFS slighly less so) has been my view since the beginning. The Foreign models "view" of this storm is puzzling to say the least. They are overdone with the Southern low and don't merge the 2 lows together correctly IMO.

Heaviest snow is in APPs,Eastern Ohio Valley, Rain for the East Coast.

[krysof]

this is the kind of situation to always check because a slight adjustment could the difference between heavy rain and heavy snow, we 2 1/2 days to watch what happens, things will likely change from now until then. Areas north of the delmarva that may see a mix or rain have to watch this very carefully because you might wake up and see heavy snow falling instead of rain.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

Exactly, a slight change could mean everything. This is my view (which is also likely to change). According to things I've read, the low will be strong but the high will be weak---this means more warm moisture will be funneled in from the Low, and less cold air will be funneled in by the High.

The more accurate predictions will be out at 11pm on Sunday Night (which by the way, it's supposed to snow that night).

[krysof]

which also means if the low is further offshore, the warm air would not funnel in the the coast because the warm air would funnel in offshore, which would explode the system, usually what the models say now will change quickly, that means as of now, I live in middlesex county nj and I should see snow to start and a changeover to rain, I think.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

And possibly a change back to snow at night? I'm hoping that the storm stalls a bit so that it strikes after the sun goes down---if the snow doesn't accumulate on the roads, it's worthless to me.

[Planetsnow]

I don't agree with that map at all, since Rochester NY is getting nothing from the storm and I don't think that will happen unless the storm really moves offshore a lot. Please extend that heavy snow area up near Lake Ontario. Local mets are calling for snow Mon and Tues. here.

[New Englander]

The local mets here in Mass are all over the place. Some are saying Rain to Snow. Others are saying Snow to Rain. Others are saying Snow to Rain to Snow. Seems like nobody has a real grasp on it yet.

[krysof]

the track of the low needs to be changed

[Planetsnow]

In what way does the low track need to be changed in your opinion - more west or more east?

[WXBUFFJIM]

Definitely this far out the uncertainity factor is there for this storm. If the current solutions are correct, then only the higher elevations from western PA, western MD up to upstate New York and northern and central New England would experience a heavy wet snowfall while the coast experiences more heavy flooding rains. There is also a wind and coastal flood threat with this. Thus no matter what the precip type is, it looks to be heavy and wind driven. Thus a nasty period coming up early next week, that's an understatement.

If the models shift this storm offshore, this would draw in somewhat colder air over the cold snowpack over the megalopolis, thus the potential for more wet snow than rain. In either case precipitation looks to be heavy and also wind driven. The amount of wind and coastal flooding that occurs with this storm will greatly be dependant on the intensity of this.

Still plenty more time to evaluate this system. Hopefully by tomorrow or Sunday we'll have a more clear picture of this storm. However with a weak high pressure present to our north possibly moving east to the Maratimes, cold air won't be as present as was the case yesterday, hence a more wet snowfall where ever that occurs.

Jim

[IndianaJonesDDT]

The SST's should play a big role in the formation of the storm. The Gulf stream has relapsed in the past month which means a strong Labrador Current is currently bringing very cold water by the Delmarva region. This is the reason the last storm didn't track as north as they expected; it was because the Low was feeding off of the Gulf Stream and followed it out to sea just a bit. This is what may happen with the Monday and Tuesday storm. (I'm already changing my mind about the storm LOL)

The storm will not hug the coast, but it will hug the Gulf Stream which will take the storm on a track headed northeast off of Norfolk, Virginia. The storm for reason of feeding off of he Gulf Stream, will therefore track more out to sea and will in turn cause deep snow across much of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast--most of which will be un-plowable (YAY!!)

This will likely cause a vast area of icing to occur in the areas of Southern Virginia and North Carolina.

Also, with the Low further off the coast, the moisture will have more time to cool, but since the High will be weak, there will be less damming of the air and would lead to freezing rain across the southern mid-atlantic.

As for Northern Virginia and Areas to the north, you will all receive 6 inches to an upwards of 30 inches in isolated spots. I would say that you can count on a minimum of 6 inches for any place north of Virginia.

The accumulating will begin Sunday Night and will last through Monday and Tuesday. The clipper system will move in quickly and will likely be the first shot of snow we get--it will not come together with the other low at first but the moisture should transfer rapidly durring the morning of the 28th.

Let's see how many times I change my mind...

[WXBUFFJIM]

That's another possibility too, would mean a more plowable heavy wet snow even for the major cities. To have this low centered near 40N 70W would really make for an explosive situation perhaps since that is where most Nor' Easters really explode and have their maximum power. The magic numbers are 40 degrees north 70 degrees west. Should this storm move north and east from there, certainly the major cities could be in trouble even with a weak high to the north. We also need to consider the fact we have a 4-8" snow pack over the megalopolis at the present time and none of that is likely to melt away between now and Monday with temps at or below freezing.

Jim

[IndianaJonesDDT]

I'll try to make another map and I'll use a political map for those who are geographically challenged.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

Accuweather just released a few new maps. I laughed my ass off when I saw them. That has to be the worst prediction that I have ever seen in my life. The storm will move fruther east without a doubt.

here's what they posted:

[Planetsnow]

Indiana,

According to your predictions, Rochester NY gets pretty much nothing if the low goes offshore. THANKS A LOT.........

[krysof]

the further offshore the low gets, the heavy snows would shift east and with no warm air nudging in at the coast, heavy snows would effect the coast

[Fodie77]

It appears to me as if here in the northern Shenandoah Valley, we're going to be right on the line between heavy snow and heavy rain.

[SnowGod]

Snowpack means nothing. Warmer air WILL be coming no matter what matters is just the low could change the timing of cold air how it phases. Amazing a American vs Europe model war, who would have EVERY think that the GFS AND ETA would be on the same page and the European models(Canada is a extension of Europe) have a different senerio.

[ohiostorm]

Im going with the inland trend. Models have sucked this year as far as track. The storms have been taking a more northerly track then what the models say. I'll post a prediction tomorrow when we know more.