ETA vs GFS vs JMA vs ECMFW and the monster storm

[EXTONPA]

ETA and GFS out to lunch on this one! It's rare for storms to take the track indicated in those models.

I think JMA and ECMFW much better. JMA predicting about two feet for EXTON PA, therefore I am routing for it. I think anyone who sticks to close to the models on this one will get burned! The answer lies in studying historical analogues

[RestonVA]

another newbie question, is there a place I can go to view all these different models?

[DS]

GfS, NAM, NGM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis

European, UKMET:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast

RGEM:
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html

GGEM:
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

COAMPS:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=27km_conus

NOGAPS:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=ngp_namer

[EXTONPA]

latest ETA beginning to come in line with my thinking about this storm

[RestonVA]

what's that thinking and how does that thinking look for the situation in Northern Virginia, west of DC?

[Fodie77]

what's that thinking and how does that thinking look for the sitation in Northern Virginia, west of DC?

I was about to ask the same question.

[EXTONPA]

I think looks good (if you like snow); latest ECMFW maintains track up east coast, which would put NW VA directly in line to get heavy snow; in fact, if this current model is correct, you can expect 2 feet of snow; this is obviously far from a sure thing, but looking promising

[DS]

Looking at the latest GFS and NAM (the other 00Z's aren't in yet), it is clear that both models are trending east. The NAM slightly...the GFS substantially...more towards the Euro and its camp of models. The GFS is putting much more emphasis on the coastal low, as it really splits the 500 mb SW's and allows for no phasing until well into the storm (i.e up the coast). From this latest guidance, it is reasonable to assume that the heaviest snow axis will run from NW NC (3000+ ft) to SW VA almost along and slightly east of I-81 corridor. At this point, accumulations are a guess- maybe 4-8 inches maybe a foot? From there NE is a little more problematic.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

I think there was a huge blizzard a while back (in the late 60's). Every met was saying it would be rain, and so no big deal was made about the storm. The next morning, a record snowfall covered the entire northeast. This was also in late February and the totalwas something like 20 inches on average throughout the entire region. I guess that wouldn't happen now-a-days being that we have all sorts of satellites and radar, but maybe, just maybe that could happen.

Alright, I'm going to stop my wishing. The storm will not take the track that they are currently predicting. It will most likely hug the Gulf stream and follow it as it turns northeast from Norfolk, Virginia. A storm taking this kind of an inland track(the one that the models are suggesting) simply would not amount to the 24 inches that they are talking about--it would require a 100 mile shift to the east. There are also unknown variables. Seeing as how there are 2 lows and a high in play, there is a chance the the Low pressure might do a "loop-d-loop" in the middle of it's track. This has happenned many times in the past. I strongly feel that the I-95 corridor will get heavy snow--and I mean STRONGLY. This means that I STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH ALL OF THE MODELS.

If I have learned anything in my life, it's that the ocean has the greatest effect on the weather. In this case it will be the gulf stream. Mark my words, it will follow the Gulf Stream out to sea (which is good; it will give us heavy snow).

Sunday night is JUDGEMENT DAY

--IndianaJonesDDT

[RestonVA]

I'm giddy. Can't get the hopes up too high though, seems when big storms are forecasted more than 2 days in advance they end up busting. But thank you, I will be watching the boards closely this weekend.

[BlizzzardMan]

Well, you may be right but I hope you're wrong considering my location! Although these nor' easters tend to rarely track inland because I've seen way too many storms over the years hit the big cities along the coast and end up missing me here in Pittsburgh when the lows hug the coast or track just off the coast. We shall see. The last nor' easter that I can remember taking an inland track may have been 10 years ago when we got about 2 feet here in a single day and Philly and New York City got mostly rain.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

Well, you may be right but I hope you're wrong considering my location! Although these nor' easters tend to rarely track inland because I've seen way too many storms over the years hit the big cities along the coast and end up missing me here in Pittsburgh when the lows hug the coast or track just off the coast. We shall see.

It is a slight misconception that the Lows hug the coast. In fact, the lows are actually hugging the gulf stream, that's because they are feeding off it.

[krysof]

it's a big storm, so you should be effected no matter what, but you probably won't get the wind energy that I'm supposed to get living near the coast, I live northwest of the jersey shore.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

it's a big storm, so you should be effected no matter what, but you probably won't get the wind energy that I'm supposed to get living near the coast, I live northwest of the jersey shore.

sounds like there's going to be some serious beach erosion. Hmmm, interestingly that's similar to the Blizzard of 96'.

[BlizzzardMan]

Well, you may be right but I hope you're wrong considering my location! Although these nor' easters tend to rarely track inland because I've seen way too many storms over the years hit the big cities along the coast and end up missing me here in Pittsburgh when the lows hug the coast or track just off the coast. We shall see.

It is a slight misconception that the Lows hug the coast. In fact, the lows are actually hugging the gulf stream, that's because they are feeding off it.

I know, I just meant the location of the low as it moves northeast. When it's on the coast or off the coast I don't get squat usually. Even if it's a big storm I may get several inches at the most from that scenario, buts that's it. Just going by past history on that one.

[RestonVA]

well, all the DC mets just ended the 11 o'clock broadcasts saying that there are two possible scenarios, but all 3 mets favor an almost entirely rain event. They all clearly state it's going to be a big storm and they all are hyping it like crazy. If they were so confident it would be rain why are they hyping it so much? No one gives a hoot about a big rain storm. So, I've come to this earth shattering conclusion: the mets don't know what's going to happen at this point. I just want to get some solid predictions soon, and I want them to be ones that I want to hear

[IndianaJonesDDT]

I was just trying to be a pain. LOL

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to dive out of a burning airplane and use an inflatable raft to break my fall as I slide down a huge mountain into a little Indian village. Oh, and did I mention that I have to fist-fight a nazi on the way down.

[yoda]

well, all the DC mets just ended the 11 o'clock broadcasts saying that there are two possible scenarios, but all 3 mets favor an almost entirely rain event. They all clearly state it's going to be a big storm and they all are hyping it like crazy. If they were so confident it would be rain why are they hyping it so much? No one gives a hoot about a big rain storm. So, I've come to this earth shattering conclusion: the mets don't know what's going to happen at this point. I just want to get some solid predictions soon, and I want them to be ones that I want to hear

They didn't see how the GFS gives us snow...

[IndianaJonesDDT]

well, all the DC mets just ended the 11 o'clock broadcasts saying that there are two possible scenarios, but all 3 mets favor an almost entirely rain event. They all clearly state it's going to be a big storm and they all are hyping it like crazy. If they were so confident it would be rain why are they hyping it so much? No one gives a hoot about a big rain storm. So, I've come to this earth shattering conclusion: the mets don't know what's going to happen at this point. I just want to get some solid predictions soon, and I want them to be ones that I want to hear

They didn't see how the GFS gives us snow...

That is funny! "earth shattering conclusion"....those are great words of sarcasm my friend.

[PurdueWx80]

Sorry guys and gals - The PV will develop in the western Lakes/eastern Plains - which means that the surface lows will take the tracks on the 12Z Eta - the major cities along the East coast will not get big snows from the Sunday/Monday systems. Instead, the Appalachians will be the biggest receivers this go 'round. We have seen this scenario ( in a million different fahsions) this winter - the vort max in the Plains will dig in stronger and further west than planned (because of the giant vortex in New England/SE Canada) and the surface low will be further west and north than everyone will "think".