The Monster Storm Thread

krysof · #21 Postby **krysof** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 4:26 pm

as of now, it could be anything really, we have a full weekend to monitor it

IndianaJonesDDT · #22 Postby **IndianaJonesDDT** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:14 pm

Planetsnow wrote:Indiana,

According to your predictions, Rochester NY gets pretty much nothing if the low goes offshore. THANKS A LOT.........

IndianaJonesDDT wrote:The SST's should play a big role in the formation of the storm. The Gulf stream has relapsed in the past month which means a strong Labrador Current is currently bringing very cold water by the Delmarva region. This is the reason the last storm didn't track as north as they expected; it was because the Low was feeding off of the Gulf Stream and followed it out to sea just a bit. This is what may happen with the Monday and Tuesday storm. (I'm already changing my mind about the storm LOL)

The storm will not hug the coast, but it will hug the Gulf Stream which will take the storm on a track headed northeast off of Norfolk, Virginia. The storm for reason of feeding off of he Gulf Stream, will therefore track more out to sea and will in turn cause deep snow across much of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast--most of which will be un-plowable (YAY!!)

This will likely cause a vast area of icing to occur in the areas of Southern Virginia and North Carolina.

Also, with the Low further off the coast, the moisture will have more time to cool, but since the High will be weak, there will be less damming of the air and would lead to freezing rain across the southern mid-atlantic.

As for Northern Virginia and Areas to the north, you will all receive 6 inches to an upwards of 30 inches in isolated spots. I would say that you can count on a minimum of 6 inches for any place north of Virginia.

The accumulating will begin Sunday Night and will last through Monday and Tuesday. The clipper system will move in quickly and will likely be the first shot of snow we get--it will not come together with the other low at first but the moisture should transfer rapidly durring the morning of the 28th.

Let's see how many times I change my mind...

As you can see, I am already disgarding my map. Expect the entire snowfall map that accuweather posted to shift about 300 miles east. That would put us both in the "more than 1 foot" region.

carve · #23 Postby **carve** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:19 pm

models are trending west..what is the likelyhood of seeing somthing similiar to the blizzard of "78".Here in ohio we took it on the chin.Man that was a long time ago..i was 18.

Fodie77 · #24 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:45 pm

CBS DC met just predicted a mainly rain event for the whole area. :cry:

Fodie77 · #25 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:48 pm

In addition, the GFS is now showing the storm WAY west. This just gets more and more depressing by the minute.

RestonVA · #26 Postby **RestonVA** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:52 pm

and the guy on Channel 7 in DC said Rain and Snow (wasn't Doug Hill though, the other guy). I don't put much stock in these guys anymore as it, but with all the uncertainty surrounding this storm I really don't think there is any reason to trust what the local mets are sayiing. Seems to me both those sations think the storm will take a more western track thus giving DC Metro area rain. Personally I think they are wrong, that's just me though.

krysof · #27 Postby **krysof** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:59 pm

whatever anybody says about this storm, don't believe it until it gets clear by tomorrow and tomorrow night, I am intrested to see what the gfs and nam or eta models say at 0z, it could be the turning point for this storm, and whatever happens, it will be bad, very heavy rain or snows, powerful winds near the coast, coastal flooding and flooding, or whiteouts.

Fodie77 · #28 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:21 pm

RestonVA wrote:and the guy on Channel 7 in DC said Rain and Snow (wasn't Doug Hill though, the other guy). I don't put much stock in these guys anymore as it, but with all the uncertainty surrounding this storm I really don't think there is any reason to trust what the local mets are sayiing. Seems to me both those sations think the storm will take a more western track thus giving DC Metro area rain. Personally I think they are wrong, that's just me though.

I certainly hope you're right over them. Oh, and by the way, do you know where Doug Hill has been lately? I haven't seen him in a while.

Matt31388 · #29 Postby **Matt31388** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:23 pm

And another big storm barely misses KY, why am I not suprised? :roll:

EXTONPA · #30 Postby **EXTONPA** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 8:19 pm

I agree with you Krysof...models all over the place, so don't trust em just yet

Anonymous · #31 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 9:02 pm

If the low tracks farther east, how much snow for fla? Saying the Jax area?

DS · #32 Postby DS » Fri Feb 25, 2005 9:06 pm

6 to 12 inches....at 700 millibars

IndianaJonesDDT · #33 Postby **IndianaJonesDDT** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 10:56 pm

I think there was a huge blizzard a while back (in the late 60's). Every met was saying it would be rain, and so no big deal was made about the storm. The next morning, a record snowfall covered the entire northeast. This was also in late February and the totalwas something like 20 inches on average throughout the entire region. I guess that wouldn't happen now-a-days being that we have all sorts of satellites and radar, but maybe, just maybe that could happen.

Alright, I'm going to stop my wishing. The storm will not take the track that they are currently predicting. It will most likely hug the Gulf stream and follow it as it turns northeast from Norfolk, Virginia. A storm taking this kind of an inland track(the one that the models are suggesting) simply would not amount to the 24 inches that they are talking about--it would require a 100 mile shift to the east. There are also unknown variables. Seeing as how there are 2 lows and a high in play, there is a chance the the Low pressure might do a "loop-d-loop" in the middle of it's track. This has happenned many times in the past. I strongly feel that the I-95 corridor will get heavy snow--and I mean STRONGLY. This means that I STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH ALL OF THE MODELS.

If I have learned anything in my life, it's that the ocean has the greatest effect on the weather. In this case it will be the gulf stream. Mark my words, it will follow the Gulf Stream out to sea (which is good; it will give us heavy snow).

Sunday night is JUDGEMENT DAY

--IndianaJonesDDT

krysof · #34 Postby **krysof** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:00 pm

the models are split indiana, several models are showing the possibility you are talking about, not all models favor one scenario, it's split

IndianaJonesDDT · #35 Postby **IndianaJonesDDT** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:15 pm

my mistake krisof.

I don't know if it interests anyone but March 6th could bare the same amount of snowfall (10+inches) but with a greater chance of happenning.
As of now, it will be snowing all day and night on Sunday, March 6th.

It's 10 days out but who knows...

krysof · #36 Postby **krysof** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:19 pm

calm down indiana, one step at a time, we are in a cold and stormy track at least up to mid march.

IndianaJonesDDT · #37 Postby **IndianaJonesDDT** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:21 pm

krysof wrote:calm down indiana, one step at a time, we are in a cold and stormy track at least up to mid march.

Ok, but I just can't help myself.....I'm a sex machine!

Coredesat · #38 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:27 pm

I'm guessing this means no snow for the Richmond area once again? We've only had about two inches of snow all winter, I think.

Kim_in_MN · #39 Postby **Kim_in_MN** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:31 pm

Fodie77 wrote:In addition, the GFS is now showing the storm WAY west. This just gets more and more depressing by the minute.

How far west? I am hoping that we at least get SOME snow here.

krysof · #40 Postby **krysof** » Fri Feb 25, 2005 11:36 pm

Kim, the west movement went east as of now, where do you live, state?

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