The Monster Storm Thread

[IndianaJonesDDT]

Guys, there is now way in hell that this storm will move further west-- it would have to defy the laws of physics and a little something called the "Coriolis Effect". (In the northern hemisphere, anything moving close to a vertical line turns to the right due to the spin the of the earth and it's tilted axis.)

I disclaim any effect on the weather.

But seriously, I may be "on location" for this one. If it looks promising, I'll post observations.

Hahahahhaha....The storm will continue its eastward trend. I'll bet you that after the storm passes out to sea, TWC will still say that it will be heading for the Appalachians.

[krysof]

the 12z nam models are finally agreeing with the other models and a significant eastward trend has begun

[wxcrazy]

I see that the low will cruise through Florida and on up to the east. Will the low swing low enough to clip the tampa area or will it sway more northern florida and on up?

[Planetsnow]

There goes my chance for a huge dumping here in Rochester, NY. I'm not even goign to log on here for the next week and hear about how you guys East of here are getting dumped. See you all after the storm. Enjoy. I'm now looking forward to Spring.

[BlizzzardMan]

There goes my chance for a huge dumping here in Rochester, NY. I'm not even goign to log on here for the next week and hear about how you guys East of here are getting dumped. See you all after the storm. Enjoy. I'm now looking forward to Spring.

Sickening, isn't it?!?! Definitely getting old at this point! Although the national weather service posted a statement for this area this morning about us getting significant snowfall Monday. Of course, significant could mean 3 to 6 inches for all I know. WHoopee! I also checked Philly's forecast and they're still forecasting a high of 40 with a changeover to rain possible. They WERE forecasting a high of 40 here and the same thing but they changed it to mid 30s now with possible significant snow.

[krysof]

you'll be lucky if you even get 3-6, maybe next time

[Planetsnow]

Yeah, maybe next year........thanks for the consolation.

[krysof]

I live near the coast of new jersey and i'm hoping I get dumped with heavy snow, right now they are saying an offshore track is the most likely scenario, but the low could still hug the coast and my snow chances would diminsh almost entirely.

[BlizzzardMan]

How come people are saying that the NAM has trended east as well? I just checked out the latest one and it showed eastern Ohio and Western PA getting pounded. And I clicked on possible precip totals with the GFS (the one that everyone suddenly is bragging about since it's trended east) and even that one has my area getting dumped on a bit from the inland low, I guess before it transfers its energy east. Not as much as the NAM, but it certainly isn't saying I'm only going to get a couple inches either. I just might get a lighter, but longer snow that will add up. Reminds me of Pres. Day 2 when we ended up getting 18 inches here when all everyone talked about was how the coast was going to get nailed and we wouldn't get hardly anything. Snowed for almost 2 days here. Maybe Im just grasping at straws, I don't know. I'm not giving up hope just yet. Mother Nature is a crazy thing.

[DS]

Considering a rather strong jump that the 12Z eta made, it is reasonable to assume that a few more runs will show a significant eastward shift. This notion would obviously imply that western PA, eastern OH, NW WV will all miss the major part of this storm, and their snow would come exclusively from upper air dynamics, not the surface low. Upper air dynamics rarely give more than 4 inches, if that, in these kinds of situations.

[krysof]

the nam jumps east when its in the south and then pulls nne, it will likely pull nne or ne but the trend should be further east when the low is in the south and then pulling ne or nne like the nam is indicating, except when the low is in the southeast the trend will be to shift east in the south and than pull north.

[Planetsnow]

and then the west of the south east low will pull north into the west trough thereby giving the north pull in the south before the storm goes west and then north then going east in the south before going north and then east.

(sorry, I couldn't resist)

[krysof]

the 12z gfs keeps trending east, but the moisture around the storm is too shallow, the heavy moisture is tightly wrapped around it and it doesn't spread the heavy moisture to the coast, the forecast will go inbetween most likely and the fact the the gfs has trended east raises the heavy snow threat for the coast

[DS]

Hmm...The 12Z GFS has very little Miller B left, almost exclusively Miller A. In fact, it is too far EAST now-giving the major cities almost nothing (although all snow)- although DC still has 6. Eastern WV and W Va look to be the winners of all this model mayhem. Also mountains of NW NC could get rocked above 3000 ft.

[krysof]

if it would be closer to the coast, temperatures would be warmer

[Planetsnow]

I hate this waiting and hearing all different info from people. I'm just going to expect pretty much nothing here in W NY with partly sunny skies and a few snow showers Mon-Wed, that's it. If there is anything more, it will be a bonus. I AM NOT GOING TO RAISE MY HOPES THIS TIME AS I HAVE BEEN LET DOWN TOO MANY TIMES THIS WINTER.

I hate models.

[krysof]

sorry, but ds, since the nam models are still inland with the storm, it means models would go inbetween the solutions and it would nail the megalopolis, Philly, NYC, Boston, and Providence.

[Andy_L]

anyone want to hazzard a guess whats going to happen once this passes NY, boston etc and tell me what effect it will have on Nova Scotia? Thanks so much

[krysof]

it could be a full blown blizzard for the northeast anyway, but further out, it could even become a stronger monster, 4 feet of snow maybe for eastern Canada.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

it could be a full blown blizzard for the northeast anyway, but further out, it could even become a stronger monster, 4 feet of snow maybe for eastern Canada.

It's funny you mentioned 4 feet for canada. I was just looking at the ETA and it shows .5 inches of precip for the SE corner of quebec. I wouldn't be surprised if it cranked out 5 feet in some areas.

Right now, the models have me in for snow on the morning of Monday the 28th, then it will change ot a mix for mid-day, and then it will go back to all snow by 7 or 8pm. For Tuesday, there is widespread snowfall across the entire Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, the Mid-West--including the great lakes region. It will snow for an astonishing amount of time. The NWS is now finally agreeing with the more eastern track and they said very significant snow is possible for the I-95 corridor (I could have told you that yesterday). According to the Precip Accumulation models, Central Maryland (Annapolis, Maryland) could see an upwards of .3 inches. Depending on the liquid to snow ratio, that could mean 10 inches, or it could mean 30 inches....I'll be safe and stick with the median of 20 inches. Either ways Boston could easily see 3 feet, and Philadelphia still looks like it can make out at least 10 or 15 inches from this storm.

For me, I'm in the most difficult area to forecast. I am always in the area where the mets don't know wether it will be cold enough or too warm. This poses a problem seeing as how some of the models are also having difficulty with this. I strongly believe that the storm will take an eastern track for the NE when it passes Norfolk, Virginia because the Gulf Stream should be taking it's turn there too. My belief is that the warm Gulf moisture will evaporate causing updrafts--Low Pressure systems are based on upward rising air. This will most likely move the system out to sea for reasons of feeding off of the stream. It will be at that point when snow starts to fall in my region.

This storm is already a monster, all we need is for it to move out to sea abit so we can call it a Blizzard.

--IndianaJonesDDT