The Monster Storm Thread

[krysof]

how much snow would the suburbs of nyc see?

[IndianaJonesDDT]

I just got hasseled for saying 3 feet in Boston on another thread so I am not at liberty to post anymore opinions on totals because nobody likes them.

[ohiostorm]

Can we at least get a map with ur predictions on it?

[nystate]

Very confused here in Watertown, NY (just east of Lake Ontario). Some people are saying 3-6 inches and others are saying 1-2 feet. What do you all think?

[ohiostorm]

Its the same here. Some are saying rain, others saying mix and some saying we could get nearly a foot of snow. I dont know whats up.

[krysof]

1-2 feet is very unlikely especially since the trend is further east, 3-6 is the best bet, probably in the higher range or around 6 inches for your area.

[nystate]

This is the current accuweather storm map-

[krysof]

that map doesn't seem reasonable, 3-6 for the coast, the storm's current track would give heavy snows to the big cities, so they may have to adjust that map

[PurdueWx80]

There have been a drought of upper soundings from Mexico lately, which is why the models are having such a tough time of finding the shortwaves/jets in the southern stream that will phase with the northern stream. I can't believe there is this much model variance 24 hours before the event is set to begin, but I guess we can attribute it to that. My gut all along has said follow the trend of previous storms, which means the massive trough digging into the center of the nation will push everything further west and north (meaning more rain than frozen precipitation in the I-95 corridor). I think Accuwx's map should be shifted further west, so that NYC is in the 1-3. Boston has the greatest chance of seeing snow out of this, but I still think the warm air may sneak in and drastically reduce the snow.

The Lakes may have a nice little storm out of this, with the trough/low cutting off over them and an inverted surface trough digging back from the main coastal low. Some models even show a formidable low in the Lakes (sub-990). It will definitely be an interesting storm to watch, but I feel a lot of people in the East wll see it as a dissapointment due to the heavy rain that will fall.

[EXTONPA]

wrong Purdue, wrong....

[krysof]

purdue, do you know the laws of physics, the low can't just go northwest, coriolis effect, the storm is already under the great lakes, how could it move north and west if there is trough digging in, a trough pushes storms east, I think accuweather should extend the heavier snows to nyc.

[Lowpressure]

I disagree Purdue. Ocean effects and gulf stream warth will win out over the low in the lakes. This will be a classic nor-easter. The low in the lakes will dumbell to possibly make a larger swath of snow than so far forecast- i.e Ohio Valley thru Pittsburgh area. It will also prolong snow in the Mid- Atlantic and especially the North East.

[krysof]

all I can say is, if the storm is just a rain maker here in northcentral new jersey, its over with wintry weather, this is the last one for me, I won't even look at long range models because there's no point. Last one this winter for me, either we get snow or not.

[ohiostorm]

Very wierd that no advisories are out for any of the eastern seaboard. Whats going on?

[PurdueWx80]

purdue, do you know the laws of physics, the low can't just go northwest, coriolis effect, the storm is already under the great lakes, how could it move north and west if there is trough digging in, a trough pushes storms east, I think accuweather should extend the heavier snows to nyc.

Yes, I have a degree in meteorology, and I think I'm well studied on the laws of physics. I think you misunderstood what I was saying, however, as a side note, a surface low most certainly can move north and west around cyclonic mid/upper level steering, especially when an upper low closes off, as will be the case with this system. I never forecasted that, although it will happen in the Canadian maritimes once the storm gets up there. Take a look at composite storm tracks in the north Atlantic - many of them die as they are moving northwest towards the Arctic.

I'm just giving my educated opinion here based on the number of storms this year that have suprised everyone by being further north and west than the models had indicated. It's as simple as a shortwave in the northern stream being stronger than forecast - it digs in further south and west forcing the surface low further north and west in the end. It has happened a million times this winter!

Then, we have the 12Z Euro and UKMET which take the storm so far out to sea that none of the big cities would see much of anything. The GFS, to me, looks to be suffering from convective feedback, which is why I don't trust the track of the low whatsoever. I think the 12Z NAM is right on, as is the 00z WRF at 72 hrs (shown below).

[krysof]

where do you live purdue?

[Lowpressure]

Very wierd that no advisories are out for any of the eastern seaboard. Whats going on?

Special weather statement scrolling across my screen as I type. Discussing the "potential" for a significant winter storm for the metro area.
Depending on ultimate track, if further east solution verifies, area is set for "significant snowfall totals"

Local weather just now starting to put minmal accumulations in the forecast.

[ohiostorm]

it says madison, wi... wonder if he lives there.

[ohiostorm]

Very wierd that no advisories are out for any of the eastern seaboard. Whats going on?

Special weather statement scrolling across my screen as I type. Discussing the "potential" for a significant winter storm for the metro area.
Depending on ultimate track, if further east solution verifies, area is set for "significant snowfall totals"

Local weather just now starting to put minmal accumulations in the forecast.

Yeah theres a few for central PA too.. but wierd not seeing any watches yet.

[PurdueWx80]

Yes, I live in Madison, WI and that's where I am and will be for the foreseeable future. Any other questions, related to physics or weather perhaps?

P.S. The 18Z Eta is out - Ohiostorm - you'd see the best of this storm (6-10"), no one in the I-95 corridor would get over an inch or two, IF it verifies.