The Monster Storm Thread

[DS]

Purdue, I definitely agree that all the biases for the models this winter have been too far south/east. However, this storm is different (as is every storm) because the pattern will be much more amplified. Therefore, this bias has not been tested in these cases. Although the latest NAM (18Z) has shifted west, I just have no confidence in that kind of an awkward track. I am going with the Euro. I think the coastal low will not hug the coast at all. Instead the upper level system will drive the midwest low and thats how all of the snow will be produced in the northeast.

[hack]

nvm.

[krysof]

how far away does the storm have to be in order to have a watch issued

[krysof]

actually if you look at the 18z models carefully, the low has very slightly shifted east when it is already up the coast, you should carefully compare the 12z and 18z and also the 18z is not as accurate as 0z and 12z.

[PurdueWx80]

how far away does the storm have to be in order to have a watch issued

If they are relatively certain in a scenario occurring (obviously not the case here), they will issue a watch 36-48 hours ahead of time. I imagine that if there are no watches this afternoon in the East, they'll be there in the morning. It's the wise thing to do right now.

[ohiostorm]

Yes, I live in Madison, WI and that's where I am and will be for the foreseeable future. Any other questions, related to physics or weather perhaps?

P.S. The 18Z Eta is out - Ohiostorm - you'd see the best of this storm (6-10"), no one in the I-95 corridor would get over an inch or two, IF it verifies.

Looks good but lets keep our fingers crossed! Doubt it will happen.

[krysof]

which is why they aren't issuing any this afternoon, they are still very unsure and the event is about 38-40 hours away.

[ohiostorm]

Its horrible that we have all this computer technology and still cant predict the weather a day away... it crazy.

[krysof]

just because you won't receive too much snow Purdue doesn't mean you have to ruin it for all of us, what is 6-10 going to be the most amounts. The last storm dumped that much, one spot received 11 inches. This one is straight from the gulf, packed with moisture and it is a prolonged event.

[krysof]

models are trending colder as well, weather.com has the high to 38 on Monday, yesterday it was 43 actually

[ohiostorm]

Cleveland NWS now has some Winter Storm Watches issued. More details coming.

[ohiostorm]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089-PAZ001>003-270400-
ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-CUYAHOGA OH-
GEAUGA OH-HOLMES OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-MAHONING OH-MEDINA OH-
NORTHERN ERIE PA-PORTAGE OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-SUMMIT OH-
TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHTABULA...CANTON...CHARDON...
CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...ERIE...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...MEADVILLE...
MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...PAINESVILLE...RAVENNA...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
315 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND OH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WATCH AREA. THE SNOW
MAY BE MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE WATCH AREA WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PART. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MIXTURE WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.

[nystate]

just because you won't receive too much snow Purdue doesn't mean you have to ruin it for all of us

How exactly is he "ruining" it for you? He is just giving his opinion....

[PurdueWx80]

I could care less how much snow I see out of this (although the 18Z NAM gives us a 6-8" storm now...don't think we'll get more than 3 or 4) - I don't forecast with emotion or with dreams of lollipops in my head, and I most certainly don't wishcast.

If the storm goes up along or just west of NYC...eastern Long Island will probably see temps in the 50's as the low passes.

[krysof]

okay then, well it really doesn't matter here, we already have above normal snowfall for the season

[ohiostorm]

Just read the discusson from Pittsburgh NWS and they said 4 to 8 inches possible from Sunday night to Tuesday. Bulk coming Monday.

[DS]

krysof- comparing weather channel high temperatures is not a great way to get the model trends- they just take numbers straight of GFS MOS, because that is the most available and most updated model.

[krysof]

well accuweather showed 46 yesterday and now it shows 37 on Monday

[DS]

thats because the GFS had the storm going west of jersey yesterday, now its east of jersey today...

[krysof]

The nws says that my area could get significant snow, snow will change to a mix or rain from south to north, the mix or rain could than change back to snow, and a few more inches will be possible before the storm ends. Everything depends on the exact track, the further east, the more change of heavy snow for the I-95 corridor. It would be nice to wake up tomorrow and check forecasts and see heavy snow for monday highs 31-32 degrees, possible foot or more. That would be a dramatic difference but you never know what happens.