First Guess (Acc. Map) On Monday Noreaster...

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I stress the word guess becasue there are alot of questions reguarding this storm and very little time to answer them, based on the information I've been looking at all day this what I have come up with for now, but please keep in mind I do expect this to change...

So confidence is very low...

[nystate]

Well, I hope it DOESN'T change!

[krysof]

4-7 for my area, did you check the models, heavier snow should be moved east and there is no way areas that west will get so much heavy snows

[Andy_L]

how about continuing that map into Canada????? somehow i doubt the snow is going to stop on the border

THANKS

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I have my fears that this thing may not be as big as hoped for there will not be as much phasing as first thought either, The NAM bothers me as it has done well this year, and if it's bringing it up the Mts, I have to take that into consideration...

[krysof]

well for now, it's a pretty good map overall for now, and you say it will change so okay

[EXTONPA]

heaviest snow should be Lancaster to Allentown to Hartford to Brattleboro to Plymouth (NH) through Maine (50 miles on either side); Western PA, and Western NY not in the picture

[krysof]

if the independent eta were to finally go offshore, than it would be more reasonable to see that the heavy snows might hit the big cities

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Like I said guys this will change, the NAM's forecast has to be taken seriously though, it is starting a trend further east... and I like the further east solution, but there are other factors about this storm that just aren't adding up...

Exton... I'd love to have that axis right over my house and based on the Canadian that would happen...

Changes will come

[krysof]

I suppose I have to take the Nam seriously.

[nystate]

4-7 for my area, did you check the models, heavier snow should be moved east and there is no way areas that west will get so much heavy snows

And you know this how...? Seems like a lot of people would disagree with you.

[krysof]

if the storm keeps trending east than how is it that 10-14 inches could fall in western new york

[RestonVA]

I think there is way too much of people forecasting and believing what they want to see and believe, not what will likely happen. I'd like to hear the input of some Cali or West Coast people who really know this stuff, who can look at some maps, and give some type of a prediction. The bias factor wouldn't be a problem anymore.

[EXTONPA]

considering evey model out there is in agreement, except the NAM, means should not take NAM seriously;

[EXTONPA]

NOGAPS, Canadian, GFS and ECMFW now have identical solutions

[ohiostorm]

I would have to disagree easpecially for Central and Western PA and Eastern OH. I think totals will be much higher.

[EXTONPA]

well, there are no models to support your assertion; models have converged on solution for coastal low.

[ohiostorm]

Local NWS still think we will see some heavier precip.

[EXTONPA]

it's possible, hopefully everyone will get in on the action

[ohiostorm]

Yeah I know. Its been a boring winter to say the least.