Tropical Cyclone PERCY (20P)

[senorpepr]

Hurricane Warning 094 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/1917 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [940 hPa] centre was located near 10 decimal 5 South 170
decimal 8 West at 261800 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 10.5S 170.8W at 261800 UTC.

Cyclone moving east-southeast 10 knots. Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 90 knots close to the centre, increasing to 95 knots
in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre,
Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 11.3S 168.9W at 270600 UTC
and near 12.4S 167.4W at 271800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports
every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other
vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 092.

120 mph (1-min avg)

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 26/1959 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 170.8W
AT 261800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING
TO 95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

WARM SPOT HAS RE-APPEARED IN THE EIR IMAGERY SINCE 1525 UTC AND IS
INDICATIVE OF EYE PATTERN. CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SINCE THE
PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. CMG EYE
SURROUNDED IN CDG YIELDS DT=5.5, MET=5.5, PAT=5.0 FT BASED ON DT:
T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW BUT
INCREASES SOUTH OF 15S. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE AT 500 HPA NEAR COOKS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND TURN PERCY SOUTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 11.3S 168.9W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 12.4S 167.4W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 14.1S 166.3W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 16.1S 165.4W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 270200 UTC.

[P.K.]

26/2022 UTC 10.6S 170.4W T6.0/6.0 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BATTERS SWAINS ISLAND; CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO TOKELAU
Cyclone Percy is now pounding Swain's Island (population 7) after causing widespread property damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday.

Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports on the preliminary damage as follows:

Situation on Nukunonu
The height of the storm surge occurred at 8:00 PM local time corresponding with high tide. The storm surge resulted in at least 5 houses on Nukunonu being washed away (3 in Motuhaga and 2 in Fale) and damage to many other houses. Residents living in the immediate coastal area fled inland or were evacuated to stronger houses during this time. During the evacuation, 2 people, one mother and a young man were caught by waves and washed out, but both were rescued. Everyone on Nokonunu is reported safe and well. Matiti School, the only school on Nukunonu has been large destroyed, but the hospital is alright. The bridge between Motuhaga and Fale is heavily eroded on the sides and covered with power and telecommunications lines and other debris. Vehicles can not go across but it can be walked across. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Fakaofo
There has been one serious injury to a man while trying to clear debris yesterday. This is a deep laceration to his leg. There is no doctor on the atoll, so authorities are evaluating the situation to try to get the man some medical help. The storm surge has washed away 2 houses and damaged many others. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Atafu
Communications with Atafu are still limited to satellite telephone, and communication has been irregular. Earlier reports from Atafu noted that the storm surge had been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications and power are still down. The latest report confirms that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone continues safe and well.

Yesterday's Parliamentary Session had been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported earlier today to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared. He has been keeping Wellington advised of the situation as it has developed.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Ben Sili, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications have been down with Swain's Island for some hours, and that they are trying to re-establish communication. He confirms that there is only about 7 people currently on the island. It can be expected that damage here is similar to that on Tokelau given the proximity of the storm.

Cyclone Percy is now moving southeast at 13 kt and is about 50 miles (85 km) northeast of Swain's Island. Percy has maintained overall strength overnight after some weakening yesterday. Percy is still a strong Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is still likely to strengthen to a Category 3/4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will continue to batter Swain's Island with hurricane force winds for about 4-6 hours before pulling away. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Once Percy pulls away from Swain's Island, it is forecast to pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path as a Category 3/4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

[James]

Well, Percy has certainly required a pinhole eye again. Looks like a major storm now.

[AussieMark]

anyone got a satellite image of Percy

[James]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/SHEM/20P.PERCY/ssmi/vis1km_high/full/Latest.html

[AussieMark]

wow.

Looking a lot healthier than last night (my night)

[AussieMark]

NRL has Percy at around 110 kts / 125 mph and 933 mb.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/SHEM/20P.PERCY/ssmi/vis1km_high/full/Latest.html

[AussieMark]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0158 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 169.6W AT 270000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

A RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED IN PAST 6 HOURS. CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. BLACK EYE SURROUNDED IN CMG YIELDS DT=6.0, MET=PAT=6.0 FT BASED ON DT: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW BUT INCREASES SOUTH OF 15S. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN PERCY SOUTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 11.6S 167.9W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 12.8S 166.6W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 14.6S 165.7W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 16.5S 164.8W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 270800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

AFTER TAKING A NAP, TC PERCY BEGINS ONCE AGAIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT SWELLS SHOULD BE HITTING HARD THE SAMOA ISLANDS. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

[AussieMark]

When did Percy become Perry



SOuthernWX will be thrilled

[HURAKAN]

When did Percy become Perry



SOuthernWX will be thrilled

It seems to be a JTWC grammar error.

[senorpepr]

WHPS01 NFFN 270000
HURRICANE WARNING 096 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 27/0119 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY [925 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 8
SOUTH 169
DECIMAL 6 WEST AT 270000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 10.8S 169.6W AT 270000 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST 8 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEAST.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING T
O 110 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 11.6S 167.9W AT 271200 UTC
AND NEAR 12.8S 166.6W AT 280000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNE
LS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 094.

130 mph (1-min avg)

[AussieMark]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0741 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 168.6W AT 270600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES-9 EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

PERCY'S EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN - WHITE EYE SURROUNDED IN CMG
YIELDS DT=5.5. MET=PAT=5.5, CI HELD AT 6.0: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A BREAK
IN THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH. ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 48 HOURS
AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY PROVIDE CONSISTENT TRACK FORECASTS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 11.9S 167.4W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 12.8S 166.7W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 13.8S 166.2W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 15.3S 165.7W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 271400 UTC.

[AussieMark]

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 10.9S0 168.8W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 168.8W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 11.7S9 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 12.8S1 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 14.0S5 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.4S0 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.3S3 165.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 168.5W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (PERCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
230 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED 10 NM EYE. TC 20P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT POLEWARD
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEER-
ING FEATURE. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5
IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5, 272100Z2, 280300Z3 AND
280900Z9.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

Hurricane Warning 098 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 27/0655 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [925 hPa] centre was located near 11 decimal 1 South 168
decimal 6 West at 270600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 11.1S 168.6W at 270600 UTC.

Cyclone moving east-southeast 10 knots but expected to gradually turn southeast.

Expect sustained winds of 100 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre,
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 11.9S 167.4W at 271800 UTC
and near 12.8S 166.7W at 280600 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports
every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other
vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 096.

130 mph (1-min avg)

[Scorpion]

Amazing how quickly these cyclones intensify!

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/2013 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [935 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 166.4W
AT 271800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES-9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS BUT SLOWING AND
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOUIRS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE.

PERCY'S EYE REMAINS CLOUD-FILLED AND OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS BECOME
ASYMMETRIC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED AS PERCY RUNS INTO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBD IN CMG,
YIELDS DT=5.0. MET=PAT=5.0, CI HELD AT 5.5: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS.
PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE MIDDLE-LEVEL
RIDGE AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH. ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A TURN TO THE SOUTH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 11.8S 165.7W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 12.9S 165.8W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 14.6S 165.8W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 16.6S 165.4W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 280200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TC PERCY HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE ITS FORMATION. THE FUTURE DOESN'T LOOK PROMISSING FOR THE SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SOME MORE TIME. BY THE WAY, THIS IS MY FIRST POST FROM MY NEW LAPTOP, MY BIRTHDAY IS ON TUESDAY, I WILL BE 18 YEARS OLD.