The Monster Storm Thread

[PurdueWx80]

Accuwx numbers are based on the GFS as well.

[krysof]

so, at least they have been trending colder

[bmoreorless]

For the last hour+ the Weather Channel has been saying that while they still can't say which of the two tracks the low will take, they're now leaning toward mostly rain for the I95 corridor.

Any guess why they'd be saying that. They did comment that there would be a lot of warm air wrapping around the system which maybe is part of their thinking.

I just have this bad feeling that Dr. Paul Kocin is back behind the curtain telling the talking heads on air that it's going to be mostly rain, and that he'll step out and make the call himself once he's a little more confident.

[krysof]

I don't know about that, models continue trending east, it could mean the heaviest snow right near the coast.

[bmoreorless]

I don't know about that, models continue trending east, it could mean the heaviest snow right near the coast.

I know the models are trending east - which is why I really don't understand the Weather Channel leaning toward their prediction of mostly rain from I95 east. They didn't say anything about which of the two tracks the low would take - the inland or ocean route - so I'm starting to wonder about warm air wrapping around keeping this all rain along the coast, even if the low goes off-shore.

Like I said - I'm just trying to think of an explanation why the Weather Channel's forecast would be flying in the face of the models eastward progression.

[krysof]

If the low is 200-300 miles offshore than the warm air wrap around would not even reach the coasts, except eastern long island. They may be using the nam model data which has the low just inland, but that too is slowly trending east.

[EXTONPA]

the weather channel always goes with the GFS and ETA, which are far enough west with storm to bring warm air to big cities; however, all of the international models, including Canadian have different solution, with storm farther east, which brings snow to big cities

[RestonVA]

well WUSA 9 now says Rain and Snow. If they keep this trend up it should be all snow by tomorrow night.

Last Night: All Rain
Tonight: Rain and Snow
Tomorrow: All Snow???

[ohiostorm]

Just issued from the Pittsburgh NWS....

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-270900-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-
FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-
MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUCKER WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-
WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-
629 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005


...SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

A DEVELOPING MOISTURE LADEN STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
STORM IS UNCERTAIN.

PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND GARRETT
COUNTY MARYLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.AT THE ONSET A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS AND UPDATES.

$$

[Karebear]

WJZ Brooks said only 1-3 inches snow then change to all rain for Baltimore. I was hoping for at least one good snowstorm. It's going to miss us again. Starts off as snow and changes to rain. I must say this, WJZ is the only station to put out amounts that I saw flipping through the channels. The others will not say. Just that it is still to soon to say. Wjz does not match up to the amounts posted here. Are they just throwing amounts up just to be the first? LOL!! Any coments?

Karebear

[krysof]

amounts at this point of a very complex storm could change rapidly and most likely will

[Planetsnow]

What does everyone see happening for Rochester, NY? Local mets are saying possibility of heavy snow with lake enhancement too. It the low tracks offshore, the heavy snow shield will be east of us with the coastal low, but we will get at least some snow from the great lakes low. Once both storms merge and move north, wrap around moisture and lake enhancement may provide another burst of snow later tuesday. What are your thoughts?

[krysof]

I think you may get significant snowfall as well. The nam just doesn't want to move east, its the only model that is inland.

[Jrodd312]

So did it stop it's trend east then?

[Lowpressure]

I think you may get significant snowfall as well. The nam just doesn't want to move east, its the only model that is inland.

I want to see huge snowfall as much as you, but give the NAM respect, it has done quite well this winter. If it shifts east, then it's on.

[Planetsnow]

People earlier were talking about snow 3-4 feet, etc. Now, at most up to 16-18 inches. Is this really a monster or just a good ol fashioned strong nor'easter?

[Planetsnow]

If the storm does follow an offshore track, I think Rochester will get min 5 inches and max 12 with lake enhancements.

[RestonVA]

so is the NAM the only model at this point that still has the storm tracking over land? When does the next NAM came out?

[krysof]

yeah, what's a little bit different with the 0z nam model is that the low is stronger and some colder is at the 54 hour if you compare 18z and 0z.

[krysof]

the snow and cold is right next to the low, an east track would bring the cold air near the city and heavy snow from the Nam models, but Nam is holding its ground.