The Monster Storm Thread
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- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 97
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 12:56 pm
Damn it, we are missing the main action once again in W NY! You know, we do get snow in the winter, but often, small storms that add up over a long period. No huge dumpings at once, which is what I really want. Same thing again this time. I really thought for once after many years, we would get a huge dumping, but NO!, the guys in the east take the cake again. Oh, well, at least we get SOME snow......Here is the latest from the NWS
Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO- SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING- 930 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005
... EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN LOWS. THE PRIMARY ONE WILL TRACK FROM MISSOURI TO LAKE ERIE BY LATER MONDAY WHILE A STRONGER COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. OUR REGION SHOULD ESCAPE MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM. HOWEVER... SNOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION MONDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE "PRIMARY" LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BACK TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH. A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ALL IN ALL... WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WINTRY FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE EXCESSIVE IN ANY ONE PERIOD... SNOW WILL FALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME... WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL THURSDAY.
REMEMBER THOUGH... BECAUSE THE STORMS HAVE NOT YET BECOME ORGANIZED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND PATHS THEY WILL TAKE... AND CHANGES IN EITHER THE INTENSITY OR PATH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE AREA RECEIVES....
Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO- SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING- 930 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005
... EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN LOWS. THE PRIMARY ONE WILL TRACK FROM MISSOURI TO LAKE ERIE BY LATER MONDAY WHILE A STRONGER COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. OUR REGION SHOULD ESCAPE MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM. HOWEVER... SNOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION MONDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE "PRIMARY" LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BACK TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH. A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ALL IN ALL... WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WINTRY FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE EXCESSIVE IN ANY ONE PERIOD... SNOW WILL FALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME... WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL THURSDAY.
REMEMBER THOUGH... BECAUSE THE STORMS HAVE NOT YET BECOME ORGANIZED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND PATHS THEY WILL TAKE... AND CHANGES IN EITHER THE INTENSITY OR PATH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE AREA RECEIVES....
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if the low is strong enough, it could pull cold air within its center and around it, I'm not sure but it may be pulling the cold air from the high south like a wedge, forecasters didn't say it because they thought it would be unreasonable, but there is a chance that they are underestimating the low and if its strong enough and the 0z is much stronger than the 18z, the low is a bit north and west than 18z and it starts to pull the warm air in, but as it strengthens it may pull strong cold air in that would change rain to snow for the I-95 corridor and several inches would still accumulate, I think this is very unlikely though and I am a lot more sure with an offshore track.
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You're talking about a process called occlusion. Basically, the low initially rides on the warm side of the thermal gradient. But during maturation, it becomes occluded and it shifts into the cold side. The result is a very quick change from heavy rain to heavy snow. HOWEVER, this does not happen when the upper dynamics are still phasing. Therefore, it would most certainly NOT apply in this case. Low track over land= rain for big cities. Period.
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Latest eat has it further east which means the trend isnt ending.RestonVA wrote:krysof, so let me get this straight, the NAM is the only one that still has this storm coming over the land, but this could end up being okay? How is this possible, all along everyone has been saying if it stays overland the I-95 cities will get rain. Please explain.
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- IndianaJonesDDT
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 108
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:15 pm
- Location: Annapolis, Maryland
- IndianaJonesDDT
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 108
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:15 pm
- Location: Annapolis, Maryland
krysof wrote:is this your best thread Indiana?
i guess so. nobody really takes interest in what i have to say so i try to make it a free for all--everybody can share opinions and things they notice in the models.
I'm hearing that the track moved east yet again. I'm surprised that TWC still has me in for some Mix Precip and then a snow-shower on tuesday. How can they be so ignorant to the situation we have coming at us.
My gut tells me I'm in for the long-haul.....say maybe 8 inches or more.
I'm sure there will be bands in areas that could give 3 to 4 inch per hour snowfall rates. Areas towards canada could look at 5 to 7 inch per hour snowfall rates.
Also, people are saying it's a fast moving storm....I'm not seeing this in any of the radar or models. It looks like it will take 24 hours to cross the area completely-but that's just me. (I'm drooling right now...imagine it simply snowing at a rate of one inch per hour for 24 hours)
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Indiana, I'm feeling the same way you are. It seems the writing is on the wall with this one, but no one is getting it. Everything has been moving east for the past 24 hours now, but it just seems none of the "professionals" want to believe it. To me it looks like the DC Metro Area (in all honesty though, it's really only to the west of DC I care about) is going to get a decent size snow out of this, but everyone who gets paid to do this keeps saying that rain is going to come into play. I'm baffled. Everyone here is quite confident that DC and West will get moderate/significant snow, and all the mets keep plugging away with the rain thing.
I just wish I could read all these models on my own and make some of my own predictions. One day maybe.
I just wish I could read all these models on my own and make some of my own predictions. One day maybe.
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- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 96
- Joined: Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:59 pm
- Location: Pittsburgh, PA
- Contact:
RestonVA wrote:I just wish I could read all these models on my own and make some of my own predictions. One day maybe.
Why don't you? The models are very accessible. Look at them yourself and give us your opinion. That's what we've all been doing on here for days now. Makes me feel like I'm trying to make a prediction for the Super Bowl or something with all of this build up. Actually, that prediction was A LOT easier than this one!
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local mets show my area getting 4-8 inches as of now but they said that a colder scenario may be very possible and by tomorrow the higher scale of 4-8 may be more likely, 8 inches or more possibly. I live west of the city and north and west of the jersey shore, the city and immediate coast may see mixing but I should see all snow, maybe blizzard conditions when you add the strong winds.
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- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29112
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
RestonVA wrote:I would just wishcast instead of forecast.and what good would that do?
I'm going to interpret this as you don't know how to read the models. If that is the case start looking at them and reading the posts that some post about/with them. If it still doesn't make sense then ask questions. Those of us that understand the models are here to help as well as prognositcate what we think will happen. If you are "forecasting" what you think will happen from what you see in the models it is not "-removed-"(a very nasty term in the eyes of S2K). If you are posting what you wish would happen as a forecast then you are indeed "-removed-" and more than likely will thoroughly dressed down for doing. Post away and don't be afraid to aks questions about that which you do not understand. That is how everyone here that does know what they are talking about started out!!
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- fasteddy77
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 27
- Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:13 pm
- Location: Frederick, MD
vbhoutex wrote:RestonVA wrote:I would just wishcast instead of forecast.and what good would that do?
I'm going to interpret this as you don't know how to read the models. If that is the case start looking at them and reading the posts that some post about/with them. If it still doesn't make sense then ask questions. Those of us that understand the models are here to help as well as prognositcate what we think will happen. If you are "forecasting" what you think will happen from what you see in the models it is not "-removed-"(a very nasty term in the eyes of S2K). If you are posting what you wish would happen as a forecast then you are indeed "-removed-" and more than likely will thoroughly dressed down for doing. Post away and don't be afraid to aks questions about that which you do not understand. That is how everyone here that does know what they are talking about started out!!
Thanks for this post. I know that I am just starting to see all of these different modeling techinques and trying to figure them out. It's nice to feel at home, even though we may know nothing about the maps!!
(Just a little post from a newbie!!)
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