NWS has this officially a SNOW event I95 and north....

[Ed Spacer]

And at that,they are not expecting a changeover,but a mix east and south of I95.I live in middletown,DE- even though I am a few miles soutyh of I95-I am also west near the border of Maryland.Good news.I think they are still underestimating the amounts,though.

WWUS41 KPHI 270953
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
450 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-272300-
ATLANTIC NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CARBON PA-CECIL MD-
CHESTER PA-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-KENT MD-KENT DE-
LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-
NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...CAMDEN...DOVER...
NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...PHILADELPHIA...READING...
TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
450 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE STEADY SNOWS WILL BEGIN OVER THE
EASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA
AREAS AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD. THE SNOWS WILL REACH THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE SNOWS BEGIN, THEY MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
MOST AREAS.

ONCE THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR REGION THE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN IN THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO
INTERSTATE 95 COULD BE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES
IN CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH
VALLEY WILL HAVE SNOW AND SOME SLEET DURING MONDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO OUR FORECAST AND
OUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CHANGE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE TIME
OF THE EVENT. YOU ARE, HOWEVER, URGED TO PREPARE NOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH
EARLY 2005. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS EARLY MONDAY
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

=====================================================================

PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN 18IN 24IN
=====================================================================

MPO 85 75 55 25 15 <5 <5
ABE 90 85 70 35 20 5 <5
PHL 90 85 75 40 20 5 <5
ACY 85 75 55 25 15 <5 <5
GED 60 30 15 5 <5 <5 <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)





WWUS41 KPHI 270953
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
450 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-272300-
ATLANTIC NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CARBON PA-CECIL MD-
CHESTER PA-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-KENT MD-KENT DE-
LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-
NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...CAMDEN...DOVER...
NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...PHILADELPHIA...READING...
TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
450 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE STEADY SNOWS WILL BEGIN OVER THE
EASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA
AREAS AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD. THE SNOWS WILL REACH THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE SNOWS BEGIN, THEY MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
MOST AREAS.

ONCE THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR REGION THE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN IN THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO
INTERSTATE 95 COULD BE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES
IN CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH
VALLEY WILL HAVE SNOW AND SOME SLEET DURING MONDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO OUR FORECAST AND
OUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CHANGE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE TIME
OF THE EVENT. YOU ARE, HOWEVER, URGED TO PREPARE NOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH
EARLY 2005. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS EARLY MONDAY
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

=====================================================================

PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN 18IN 24IN
=====================================================================

MPO 85 75 55 25 15 <5 <5
ABE 90 85 70 35 20 5 <5
PHL 90 85 75 40 20 5 <5
ACY 85 75 55 25 15 <5 <5
GED 60 30 15 5 <5 <5 <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)




[Ed Spacer]

Looky,looky here,folks,this looks even better!

[Ed Spacer]

WE ARE GOING TO GET SLAMMED!
MODEL TRENDS...

MIDWEST/EAST...
THE NAM HAS BROADENED ITS NRN STREAM ENERGY/TROUGH OVR
THE PAST 24 HRS OF RUNS AND HAS INTENSIFIED THE SRN STREAM
ENERGY MOVG UP ITS EAST SIDE. THIS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE
SFC CYC EWD ON THE 12Z RUN...DEEPENED THE SFC CYC BY ABOUT 10
HPA FROM ITS RUNS OF 12-24 HRS AGO AS IT PASSES THE MID
ATL...AND APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SPEEDING UP ITS MOTION TO THE
NORTH.

THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...FINALLY...IN ITS PAST 24 HRS
OF RUNS. THE NRN STREAM ENERGY CLOSES OFF INTO A CYC IN THE
OH VLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN SEEN IN PREV RUNS...AND THE SRN
STREAM ENERGY IS EVEN DEEPER THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN...BUT THE
TRACK OF THE SFC CYC FROM NC NORTHWARD HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EWD WHICH SHIFTS LANDFALL INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES RATHER
THAN THE PINE TREE STATE/MAINE AND PASSES THE CYC UP TO THE
POLAR VORTEX RATHER THAN MERGING THE SRN AND NRN STREAM
ENERGY TOGETHER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WAS SEEN THIS
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE EARLY PART OF THE TRACK...SOUTH OF NC...IS
SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN SEEN PREVIOUSLY.

[Ed Spacer]

[Ed Spacer]

This is nice....temperature models validate this being a SNOW event...
[edited----wrong day!!!!!}

Here is one for MONDAY,has the 30 degree bar WELL SOUTH into and past the mid-atlantic area.....