Virginia/Maryland Winter Storm thread

[krysof]

do not believe that what they say is etched in stone because if anyone tells you it will be something, it's just a prediction and it may have little value

[Lowpressure]

do not believe that what they say is etched in stone because if anyone tells you it will be something, it's just a prediction and it may have little value

true, even the models are split and we are not that far from the onset of formation.

[Lowpressure]

SPS issued for interior counties of NC,VA, and MD. Standard, we are not sure, but you might get a bunch of snow, stay tuned statement.

[Lowpressure]

LWX has SPS issued for most of the listening area now. They still think snow focus will be west of I-95- for now. Trend has been east and more snow to this point for I-95 major cities. This storm just might be the big one for many.

[yoda]

LWX has SPS issued for most of the listening area now. They still think snow focus will be east of I-95- for now. Trend has been east and more snow to this point for I-95 major cities. This storm just might be the big one for many.

Yup... tonights runs are going to be crucial....

[krysof]

the final model runs will be the 0z sunday night

[Lowpressure]

LWX has moved the onset of snow 12 hours earlier (1 p.m. Sunday) for this area and dropped Sunday and Monday high temps to the upper 30's. Trend is colder and snowier and a lengthier event.

[Lowpressure]

9:36 p.m. SPS issued by LWX is basically unchanged, wait and see, but pay attention type attitude. They will change their tune by tomorrow morning looking at the latest NAM.

[RestonVA]

what does the latest NAM say?

[Karebear]

I see all is excited about this NAM thing. Does this mean Baltimore will see some good snow or will the rain wash it all away? LOL!! I have to laugh because the way this winter has been there is no sense in getting upset. It snows some and then the rain follows.

karebear

[krysof]

I still think that once we get 24 hours before the storm the nam will agree with the other models although the 0z shows cold air wrapping around the system, this is intresting, the low may pull in cold air rather than warm air around it and that would mean big snows for everyone, but thats unlikely.

[Lowpressure]

The NAM is one of the two main models most TV forecasters as well as sites like Accuweather use. GFS is usually the model of choice, however, the NAM has done very well this winter with predicting more north and west components to winter storms ( and that has occured in many cases as Purdue has pointed out). This is why the NAM caries so much weight. It has been good, even as an outlier.

[krysof]

the Nam is really important, if the Nam were to agree with the other models than the forecasts would most likely change quickly

[Karebear]

Thanks for your answers. I'm curiously waiting to see what they say on the 11 o'clock news tonight or is it to soon for them to put out the info? Thanks in advance.

Karebear

[krysof]

what channel is the best at 11?

[Karebear]

None of the channels would say earlier except WJZ. I like Doug Hill but have not seen him lately, so I guess it's channel 11 because I don't like hearing 1 to 3 then all rain. LOL!! Maybe they will say its a monster of a storm. Ya, I know stick to Brooks on WJZ which is 1 to 3 then all rain. At least it won't be that disappointing. Oh well.

Karebear

[Lowpressure]

Winter storm watches up for the entire area, will not link due to several others already posting watch. Local weather adds up to more than 7-9 inches of snow for the area, focusing on the I-95 corridor! LWX has taken Monday's high down to 32 degrees! Snow expected to start here around midnight. 25.0 outside right now.

[Fodie77]

I'm getting very depressed. It looks like we're going to be screwed once again here in the Shenandoah Valley.

[Lowpressure]

I'm getting very depressed. It looks like we're going to be screwed once again here in the Shenandoah Valley.

I wouldn't give up just yet in Winchester. You are set to get plenty of snow and the ULL is vigorous and will help enhance your area. I don't think you will get quite as much as some areas, but you may. Last week my area was set final estimates at 1-2 inches with D.C. at up to 7 and we got 4 1/2 and D.C. got less than 3! This type of strom really matters where banding sets up with forcing also issue. Snow growth rates are key here, and honestly I have not seen those numbers yet.

[Fodie77]

I'm getting very depressed. It looks like we're going to be screwed once again here in the Shenandoah Valley.

I wouldn't give up just yet in Winchester. You are set to get plenty of snow and the ULL is vigorous and will help enhance your area. I don't think you will get quite as much as some areas, but you may. Last week my area was set final estimates at 1-2 inches with D.C. at up to 7 and we got 4 1/2 and D.C. got less than 3! This type of strom really matters where banding sets up with forcing also issue. Snow growth rates are key here, and honestly I have not seen those numbers yet.

I hope you're right. However, my main concern is that in the NWS discussion, it was mentioned that areas west of I-95 may not even see enough snow for warning criteria.