LWX WSwatching but still uncertain

[arlwx]

WWUS41 KLWX 270801
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-272000-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
257 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT...

THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO A POSITION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING AS SNOW IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND SPREAD TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DURING MONDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM TRACKS FURTHER WEST WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM...
AND PRECIPITATION WOULD MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY TRACK
KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED BY THIS
EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$

[yoda]

Going to be an interesting ride here in DC...

[Ed Spacer]

If I am wrong,I'd be happy to treat the forum for a meal somewhere,but I don't think so....we're gonna get hammered!

[arlwx]

The background discussion...FXUS61 KLWX 270841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TD/TNGT)...

HV TO SAY...I'M FEELING LUCKY BECAUSE THE PTNL STORM IS STILL
PRIMARILY A 3RD PD EVENT...JUST OUT OF MY TIME FRAME. AFTR LOOKING
AT THE VARIOUS MDLS THIS IS DEFINITELY A TUFFY...BUT WE ARE LUCKY
THAT MY TALENTED COMPADRE IS HARD AT WORK FIGURING THINGS OUT.

TD HIGH PRES RMNS OVR THE ERN SEABOARD...W/ CD AIR FILTERING DOWN
XPCTG HIGH TEMPS TO BE ALMOST 10 DEGS BLO LATE FEB NORMS. THIS WL
PROVIDE ONE NECESSARY ELEMENT FOR A WINTER STORM.

TNGT CIGS WL BE DCRSG AS LOW MVS OVR CSTL CAROLINA. WL INTRODUCE THE
CHC OF S- INTO CENTRAL VA AFTR MDNGT..REACHING THE NE MD BRDR B4
SUNRISE.

WOODY!
&&

.LONG TERM (MON-SAT)...

LATEST GUIDANCE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS
INDICATING A SIG SNOWFALL EVENT IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS 10 OUT OF 12 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TAKE THE SFC AND H85 LOWS FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND
ALG THE EAST COAST HUGGING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MON AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY TUE AFTERNOON. NEW 27/00Z EURO AND UKMET TRACK OF SFC LOW
IS EVEN FARTHER EAST THAN 00Z GFS SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THE 00Z GFS
MAY BE TOO FAR WEST WITH TRACK OF STORM. THE NAM MODEL WAS
COMPLETELY DISREGARDED AS IT BRINGS THE LOW WELL INLAND. IF THE
EURO/UKMET SCENARIO PANS OUT AREAS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WOULD
TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH AREAS TO THE WEST NOT GETTING
ENOUGH QPF TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME HOWEVER GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ENTIRE
AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 INCHES OR MORE.

SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT TUE WITH PRECIP ENDING IN
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR WRN RIDGES. DEEP UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA
TUE WITH INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS. THU STILL LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS REBOUND. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO FCST
BEYOND WED.

ROSA

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTG VFR CONDS TD. TEMPO S- INTRODUCED INTO CHO AFT
04Z...WL SPREAD TO BWI BY 12Z MON. CONDS COULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...TIDES LKLY ABV NRML ALONG ERN SHORES OF CHES BAY AND PTMC
ON MON...BUT LOW PRES IS XPCTD TO MV NEWD RAPIDLY ENUF TO SWITCH
WINDS TO NW AND PREVENT CSTL FLDG.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
MD...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
VA...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
WV...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
MARINE...NONE.

[Fodie77]

The background discussion...FXUS61 KLWX 270841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TD/TNGT)...

HV TO SAY...I'M FEELING LUCKY BECAUSE THE PTNL STORM IS STILL
PRIMARILY A 3RD PD EVENT...JUST OUT OF MY TIME FRAME. AFTR LOOKING
AT THE VARIOUS MDLS THIS IS DEFINITELY A TUFFY...BUT WE ARE LUCKY
THAT MY TALENTED COMPADRE IS HARD AT WORK FIGURING THINGS OUT.

TD HIGH PRES RMNS OVR THE ERN SEABOARD...W/ CD AIR FILTERING DOWN
XPCTG HIGH TEMPS TO BE ALMOST 10 DEGS BLO LATE FEB NORMS. THIS WL
PROVIDE ONE NECESSARY ELEMENT FOR A WINTER STORM.

TNGT CIGS WL BE DCRSG AS LOW MVS OVR CSTL CAROLINA. WL INTRODUCE THE
CHC OF S- INTO CENTRAL VA AFTR MDNGT..REACHING THE NE MD BRDR B4
SUNRISE.

WOODY!
&&

.LONG TERM (MON-SAT)...

LATEST GUIDANCE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS
INDICATING A SIG SNOWFALL EVENT IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS 10 OUT OF 12 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TAKE THE SFC AND H85 LOWS FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND
ALG THE EAST COAST HUGGING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MON AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY TUE AFTERNOON. NEW 27/00Z EURO AND UKMET TRACK OF SFC LOW
IS EVEN FARTHER EAST THAN 00Z GFS SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THE 00Z GFS
MAY BE TOO FAR WEST WITH TRACK OF STORM. THE NAM MODEL WAS
COMPLETELY DISREGARDED AS IT BRINGS THE LOW WELL INLAND. IF THE
EURO/UKMET SCENARIO PANS OUT AREAS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WOULD
TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH AREAS TO THE WEST NOT GETTING
ENOUGH QPF TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME HOWEVER GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ENTIRE
AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 INCHES OR MORE.

SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT TUE WITH PRECIP ENDING IN
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR WRN RIDGES. DEEP UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA
TUE WITH INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS. THU STILL LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS REBOUND. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO FCST
BEYOND WED.

ROSA

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTG VFR CONDS TD. TEMPO S- INTRODUCED INTO CHO AFT
04Z...WL SPREAD TO BWI BY 12Z MON. CONDS COULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...TIDES LKLY ABV NRML ALONG ERN SHORES OF CHES BAY AND PTMC
ON MON...BUT LOW PRES IS XPCTD TO MV NEWD RAPIDLY ENUF TO SWITCH
WINDS TO NW AND PREVENT CSTL FLDG.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
MD...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
VA...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
WV...WINT STORM WATCH TNGT-MON NGT.
MARINE...NONE.

[Lowpressure]

Doesn't sound all that uncertain to me. They are a little uneasy with the major shift eastwards in the past 24 hours and the NAM bugs them (all of us) a bit. Other than that, I think it looks pretty straight forward- snow for the area-and maybe a bunch of it.

[yoda]

Doesn't sound all that uncertain to me. They are a little uneasy with the major shift eastwards in the past 24 hours and the NAM bugs them (all of us) a bit. Other than that, I think it looks pretty straight forward- snow for the area-and maybe a bunch of it.

If the NAM was right (which I don't think is) we would get like 3-6" of snow... then rain... then back to snow...

[Lowpressure]

Right Yoda, what are your expectations for Springfield in regards to snowfall totals?

[Ed Spacer]

If you want MY input...I would say 6-10 might be an easy call.....

[Lowpressure]

If you want MY input...I would say 6-10 might be an easy call.....

Yes Ed, sorry, I was not sure where you live. Where do you live and thanks for your estimate. Also see my VA/MD Storm thread here, feel free to join in my friend.

[yoda]

Right Yoda, what are your expectations for Springfield in regards to snowfall totals?

I am starting out conservative... 4-8"+ with a high chance of raising this...

[Lowpressure]

Current totals by adding LWX estimates on the forecast for Fredericksburg would be around 7-9 here.