Update: latest ETA further west: rain for big cities

[EXTONPA]

ETA usually best model this close to event. Looks like all those predicting inland track were correct....Rain in EXTON PA boo hoo;

bring on spring

[hack]

funny.. cus weather.com just changed our forecast in DC from rain/snow to heavy snow, 5 to 10" & a winter storm watch is up.

would be crazy/hilarious if they got everyone excited today the day before the storm, and then changed it back to rain

[Ed Spacer]

You guys are crazy. My original assessment as well as previous models,and this lovely map-we are now under a WINTER STORM WATCH here in Delaware.Someone is dropping the ball,who is it?

[yoda]

ETA usually best model this close to event. Looks like all those predicting inland track were correct....Rain in EXTON PA boo hoo;

bring on spring

Don't worry about it. 10 of its ensembles which run on the SREF predict a coastal...

[Ed Spacer]

You got it,buddy,have no fear,winter is still here.

[Lowpressure]

Thanks for jumping on that Yoda. LXW even says in discards the ETA due to be outlier. It does have a good track record, but appears to have problems handling something here. Or, it will be the only model to pin this thing down and many of us will be upset when we wake up tomorrow morning.

[BlizzzardMan]

ETA usually best model this close to event. Looks like all those predicting inland track were correct....Rain in EXTON PA boo hoo;

bring on spring

This is strange! Yesterday, the Weather Channel seemed to be favoring an inland track with their forecasts when most here were saying the track would be just off the coast. NOW, I just had the Weather Channel on and they said they are favoring a track just off the coast and now the ETA is favoring an inland track!?!? Is the Weather Channel just behind or what? Have to go check the latest models out myself. What a weird storm this is turning out to be.

[DS]

The latest NAM (06Z) is further west, but the latest MM5 is further east...off the coast completely. So the NAM would be too warm for big cities while the MM5 would mostly miss them off the coast completely. Now I really don't know what the heck is going on.

[krysof]

last time I checked the low was south of the mississippi/alabama border in fact way south, I don't but the Eta

[krysof]

I mean louisianna/mississippi border

[IndianaJonesDDT]

funny.. cus weather.com just changed our forecast in DC from rain/snow to heavy snow, 5 to 10" & a winter storm watch is up.

would be crazy/hilarious if they got everyone excited today the day before the storm, and then changed it back to rain

That would not be hilarious.....well actually, yeah it would be, but if that happenned I think I would blow up the weather channel building.

[DS]

This is from the Sterling, VA NWS discussion this morning...


LATEST GUIDANCE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS
INDICATING A SIG SNOWFALL EVENT IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS 10 OUT OF 12 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TAKE THE SFC AND H85 LOWS FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND
ALG THE EAST COAST HUGGING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MON AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY TUE AFTERNOON. NEW 27/00Z EURO AND UKMET TRACK OF SFC LOW
IS EVEN FARTHER EAST THAN 00Z GFS SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THE 00Z GFS
MAY BE TOO FAR WEST WITH TRACK OF STORM. THE NAM MODEL WAS
COMPLETELY DISREGARDED AS IT BRINGS THE LOW WELL INLAND. IF THE
EURO/UKMET SCENARIO PANS OUT AREAS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WOULD
TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH AREAS TO THE WEST NOT GETTING
ENOUGH QPF TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME HOWEVER GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ENTIRE
AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 INCHES OR MORE.

[RestonVA]

I'm not liking the sounds of this. Has the storm moved too far east? I'm just to West of DC, not the extreme NW burbs, about 20 minutes west. Just when all the real mets start preaching what everyone on here has been saying for the past 3 days, this stuff comes up.

[krysof]

as long as the nam model remains inland, they can't say it will move too warm east, they have to balance the models

[Fodie77]

I'm not liking the sounds of this. Has the storm moved too far east? I'm just to West of DC, not the extreme NW burbs, about 20 minutes west. Just when all the real mets start preaching what everyone on here has been saying for the past 3 days, this stuff comes up.

I have the exact same concern as you. Except for me, it's even worse, I AM in the extreme NW burbs.

[krysof]

its really good for me, I live just east of I-95.

[vbhoutex]

as long as the nam model remains inland, they can't say it will move too warm east, they have to balance the models

?????????? Who is they and why do they have to balance the models?

[krysof]

an inbetween situation as of now until the models finally agree, forecasters and meteorologists are "they"

[vbhoutex]

They don't balance the models. The models are used by them for their forecasts and "they" have to look at each one, if they use more than one, and come up with a "balance" for their forecast, but "they" do not balance the models.

[krysof]

you seem cranky, but I know they can't just favor one and forget the other ones like the TWC has been doing, they must try to make a forecast as accurate as possible.