I may be the only idiot on the forum here.......

[Ed Spacer]

And I could be the biggest idiot,but I stand by my original forecast from two days ago. Looking at the current radar, the trough #1-is winning.Once the precip starts, it will cool the surface layer by about 4-5 degr.It is obvious by the strength of this inversion in shifting the momentum of the precip the body of it is coming from the west,while our nifty low is exp[loding over the atlantic,trying to bring warm air, but NOT WINNING,whereas by watching this radar, the whole conglomeration is coming up from the southwest to the northeast,and not from the ocean inland.Yes, it is happening, but at the same time it appears the trough is strong and creating a blocking mechanism that is actually forcing the low and its energy to develop rapidly.Based on the amount of precip,and the afct of the directional momentum of the precip moving due east from west and south, not cxoming off the ocean,and hopw big the sheild of precip is,I stand behind 1-2 feet here for DC/Phila/Wilmington,DE.

[Ed Spacer]

The models are goofy,and unpredictable.You can forecast what will happen based on undcerstanding and observing what is happening now at the p[resent,and again,I stand firm on my analysis.

[benjammin]

And I could be the biggest idiot,but I stand by my original forecast from two days ago. Looking at the current radar, the trough #1-is winning.Once the precip starts, it will cool the surface layer by about 4-5 degr.It is obvious by the strength of this inversion in shifting the momentum of the precip the body of it is coming from the west,while our nifty low is exp[loding over the atlantic,trying to bring warm air, but NOT WINNING,whereas by watching this radar, the whole conglomeration is coming up from the southwest to the northeast,and not from the ocean inland.Yes, it is happening, but at the same time it appears the trough is strong and creating a blocking mechanism that is actually forcing the low and its energy to develop rapidly.Based on the amount of precip,and the afct of the directional momentum of the precip moving due east from west and south, not cxoming off the ocean,and hopw big the sheild of precip is,I stand behind 1-2 feet here for DC/Phila/Wilmington,DE.

From your keyboard to God's ears, but I'm not seeing that. NWS in DC has already dropped their snowfall forecast from 6-10 to 3-6 and while I respect your line of reasoning, I think this storm is busting for DC. I hope I'm wrong, but I've seen it all too often.

[Ed Spacer]

Watch this...and loop it! Again,too much reliance on the equipment and tools rather than the analysis that the tools were supposed to help to begin with which is the human element....and I stand behind my projections,as it is happening,closing in from the west,as the east low explodes....



Let not your heart be troubled.GOD has a suprise in store!

[Ed Spacer]

See this image?Its coming from SW to NE,and theres a six hundred or so mile shield of it some of it quite heavy,on the way.I would even bet money on this.

[Ed Spacer]

The trough is winning out. The cold flow from the southwest precip is colliding with the eastern atlantic onshore flow,which means either the 1-2 feet that I stand behind,or the other possibility is a major-league ICE STORM, if enough of the onshore flow gets inland.There is no way that this warm air will find itself to the surface,because the blocking mechanics of the trough and its motion have generated its own osmosis which would take blowing all the laws of physics to break just by watching the flow of the west vs east. The original call for this blocking to take place and the cooling to take place when the precip hits as I have stated is even happening in Richmond,where it is SNOW and SLEET up the I95 corridor. The call two days on this was right from the getgo,the EURO model was right on from the start.

[RestonVA]

so what exactly are you saying Ed and how does it apply to the I-95 cities?

[Ed Spacer]

What I am saying is that from RICHMOND northeast to DC to PHILA to ALBANY will see 1-2 feet,and no matter how far south you are, especially that report from Richmond is so validating of this,if it is RAINING,it will not be for much longer. 1-2 feet or 12-15 with ICE. Boston,NYC,and Long Island will have RAIN. Poor suckers.Let them get the downers for once.

[Ed Spacer]

Heck,I will go as far as to say the vortex will funnel down enough cold air to interior Georgia and Atlanta's suburbs will actually see SNOW SHOWERS.The downward effect is a wonderful thing...

[RestonVA]

Ed, I really hope that's true. But right now I think the odds of what you saying might happen actually happening are about the same as Exton's flat out stupid belief that DC will only get 1 inch of snow.

[Ed Spacer]

Again,just watch the way the precip is coagulating on the radar,and how it is closing in on any dry spots.The motion is from SW to NE,and theres a whole lot of it coming. I am smarty jones the race horse right now,I am the long shot,no way in hell under normal circumstances to win,by standard perception,but thats based on MODEL PROFILES.Just watch.Observe what is happening. You will see that I am right.I could be wrong...but I don't think so.

[Jrodd312]

Again,just watch the way the precip is coagulating on the radar,and how it is closing in on any dry spots.The motion is from SW to NE,and theres a whole lot of it coming. I am smarty jones the race horse right now,I am the long shot,no way in hell under normal circumstances to win,by standard perception,but thats based on MODEL PROFILES.Just watch.Observe what is happening. You will see that I am right.I could be wrong...but I don't think so.

I believe you are right Ed. So 1-2 feet for philly? Im right behind u man. Exton will probably be on any minute saying that philly is supposed to get nothing, But i think 1-2 feet is a great estimate Ed and think you are right!

[Ed Spacer]

Here you go..again,just as I said,the western sheild of main precip is winning,and the saturation is taking place.The very first flakes here in Middletown,DE are slowly starting to fall. As the COLD AIR INVERSION interacts with the deepening storm off the coast,it will actually mechanize the low and further intensify it,and the interactivity of these elements will have the cyclonic inflow from the osmosis of the invesion,and the energy will have transferrance over to the main storm,which will have become a cold core by that point.Again,it will be a bust for Boston and NYC,but not here.

[Jrodd312]

Here you go..again,just as I said,the western sheild of main precip is winning,and the saturation is taking place.The very first flakes here in Middletown,DE are slowly starting to fall. As the COLD AIR INVERSION interacts with the deepening storm off the coast,it will actually mechanize the low and further intensify it,and the interactivity of these elements will have the cyclonic inflow from the osmosis of the invesion,and the energy will have transferrance over to the main storm,which will have become a cold core by that point.Again,it will be a bust for Boston and NYC,but not here.

So what are your snowfall amounts for the major cities? And how sure ar you that this is going to happen because i dont really understand what you are saying with the precipitation shield.

[Ed Spacer]

Again,just watch the way the precip is coagulating on the radar,and how it is closing in on any dry spots.The motion is from SW to NE,and theres a whole lot of it coming. I am smarty jones the race horse right now,I am the long shot,no way in hell under normal circumstances to win,by standard perception,but thats based on MODEL PROFILES.Just watch.Observe what is happening. You will see that I am right.I could be wrong...but I don't think so.

I believe you are right Ed. So 1-2 feet for philly? Im right behind u man. Exton will probably be on any minute saying that philly is supposed to get nothing, But i think 1-2 feet is a great estimate Ed and think you are right!

Thats right.Computer models are only guidance systems,and data-generated projections.watch and observe.If you understand from the whole picture what is going on,and the conditions creating the situation, you will understand how the outcome will be based on the human understanding of such climatalogical events and the reactional outcomes that are as a result of such actions taking place.

[Fodie77]

Ed, do you think the dry slot coming up in the precipitation shield will fill in then? (Look at radar, it's about 150mi. SW of DC)

[Jrodd312]

Again,just watch the way the precip is coagulating on the radar,and how it is closing in on any dry spots.The motion is from SW to NE,and theres a whole lot of it coming. I am smarty jones the race horse right now,I am the long shot,no way in hell under normal circumstances to win,by standard perception,but thats based on MODEL PROFILES.Just watch.Observe what is happening. You will see that I am right.I could be wrong...but I don't think so.

I believe you are right Ed. So 1-2 feet for philly? Im right behind u man. Exton will probably be on any minute saying that philly is supposed to get nothing, But i think 1-2 feet is a great estimate Ed and think you are right!

Thats right.Computer models are only guidance systems,and data-generated projections.watch and observe.If you understand from the whole picture what is going on,and the conditions creating the situation, you will understand how the outcome will be based on the human understanding of such climatalogical events and the reactional outcomes that are as a result of such actions taking place.

I dont really understand it. Can you explain it?

[Ed Spacer]

Well,looky,looky. Just as I stated.The clipper system has just conglomerated with the inland surface disturbance,which is now one gigantic sheild of SNOW.The back end of which is all the way to Missouri,and the south end in Tennessee. It is actually moving from WSW to ENE,and 90 % of the whole big mess will be making its way through VA,MD,PA,DE and NJ, all while our nice coastal low develops.

[Ed Spacer]

Ed, do you think the dry slot coming up in the precipitation shield will fill in then? (Look at radar, it's about 150mi. SW of DC)

It is filling in.Look at this:


And as I stated,the back end is all the way to MIssouri,and we still have a coastal low yet to contend with.

[Ed Spacer]

Again,just watch the way the precip is coagulating on the radar,and how it is closing in on any dry spots.The motion is from SW to NE,and theres a whole lot of it coming. I am smarty jones the race horse right now,I am the long shot,no way in hell under normal circumstances to win,by standard perception,but thats based on MODEL PROFILES.Just watch.Observe what is happening. You will see that I am right.I could be wrong...but I don't think so.

I believe you are right Ed. So 1-2 feet for philly? Im right behind u man. Exton will probably be on any minute saying that philly is supposed to get nothing, But i think 1-2 feet is a great estimate Ed and think you are right!

Thats right.Computer models are only guidance systems,and data-generated projections.watch and observe.If you understand from the whole picture what is going on,and the conditions creating the situation, you will understand how the outcome will be based on the human understanding of such climatalogical events and the reactional outcomes that are as a result of such actions taking place.

I dont really understand it. Can you explain it?

I'll put it in laymans terms. The way weather used to be forecasted before the advent of technology,is that what happens now will determine what happens later,as simple as that.