Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Oh Baby! I love the 12z GFS. It continues to show that the big upper level ridge will make a dramatic shift to the NW with time. I really like the fact, it has moved the timing up now! The process is already underway by day 10. This map for hour 300 shows a setup that could deliver another shot of cold continental air. This bodes SO well for next winter...historically speaking.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_300m.htm

Update...look at this map...We are in the cold spot of a HUGE Omega block. The pressure gradients stay straight N to S, so there would be no compressional heating from offshore flow. Please let it be so!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_360m.htm

[TT-SEA]

Again... the GFS beyond day 7 is so unreliable it might be better to assume the opposite. You will have a better chance of being right.

Remember 10 days ago it showed a strong, cool zonal flow for this week. A few runs even hinted at lowland snow.

Yet... the blocking pattern still persists much to my dismay.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I appreciate you trying to keep me from getting too excited about trends and stuff more than a week down the road, but I can't help it! There are just too many good signs.

You could be right about leaves coming out next week. I just hope things don't get too advanced in case it gets really cold again. That could prove disasterous to young growth. It is becoming increasingly clear, we may have significant continenetal influence for quite some time. That stuff can be harsh to plants.

I understand your disappointment that everything remains so blocked. on the other hand if it gets cold...I on board for that!

[TT-SEA]

And here is the problem with the cold scenario...

The ECMWF shows NO sign of a retrograding high pressure. This is a MUCH more likely pattern.

Here is next Tuesday (3/8) on the latest run...

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

It's march. Time for Spring and Summer. I'm tired of Winter...esp. this Winter. Nothing exciting has happened...no decent lowland snow event, no big snowstorm, no huge mountain snows...if you can't get any of those, why continue with Winter?! At this point, I want sunny conditions with temperatures near 75F. That would be perfect for me. And if current forecasts are correct, next week could come close to those numbers.

I know you're excited about the extended, but how accurate has the GFS been this entire Winter season?! I would say its accuracy does not exceed 20 percent. It's shown over five arctic outbreaks...only one occurred and that was minor. And you must remember...it will be the middle of March by then. What's the chances of an arctic outbreak in the middle of March?! I'm not saying it can't happen, but it is indeed very unlikely.

Honestly, I think this blocking pattern may continue for quite awhile...maybe all of Spring. Like TT-SEA stated earlier, something is altering the weather patterns all around the world. Maybe it was the monstrous 9.0 earthquake?! Maybe it's global warming? (Though, I don't buy this...global warming would be a gradual change...not just in one Winter.) Who knows at this point. Not even the expert meteorologists.

So what I'm saying is...Winter's over. It was a terrible Winter in general. So I say bring on Spring and Summer. And a word of caution...don't get too excited about the extended. There's a strong possibility that scenario will not play out.

Anthony

Currently 52F with partly cloudy conditions.

[TT-SEA]

Gotta love the warm sector.

Sunny, warm, and kind of humid today.

I love it. The frost in the shadows last week is a DISTANT memory now.

R-Dub... the grass on your golf course is going to start growing fast now!!

[vbhoutex]

Snow_Wizzard,

It's march. Time for Spring and Summer. I'm tired of Winter...esp. this Winter. Nothing exciting has happened...no decent lowland snow event, no big snowstorm, no huge mountain snows...if you can't get any of those, why continue with Winter?! At this point, I want sunny conditions with temperatures near 75F. That would be perfect for me. And if current forecasts are correct, next week could come close to those numbers.

Because I don't like the 100º+ we get during the summer!!!

Oh wait, wrong part of the country!! Actually don't some of the desert/more arid areas in Washington get into the 100's during the summer?

[Guest]

Anthony, TT, I can't believe you say winter is over... The extended GFS hasn't been good at all this winter... Yes, we all know that, but does that give us reason to stop paying attention to the long term? NO... When this ridge that is coming up was 10 days out you were all GUNG HO about it... So why can't we be GUNG HO about the possibilities 10 or more days out with what it is showing now? I really believe this one is it...

[Guest]

And another thing, TT you show the EURO at day 7... The cold me and Snowwizz are talking about doesn't come until about day 11... So what the heck are you showing us day 7 for?

[TT-SEA]

Dream on boys.

Spring is here and summer is around the corner!!

The rain, the sun, and the moisture in the air during the last two days is causing an explosion of green here now. Trees are really bursting out and the grass is turning lush green.

Ahhhh.. it is beautiful outside!!

Feels like early June. It may feel like July early next week. More disappointment on tap for cold weather lovers!!

[TT-SEA]

Its a beautiful 62 degrees and sunny at my house.

I feel sorry for those people who do not like this weather. Most people are energized by this beautiful weather. We just need more rain and it will be perfect.

[AnthonyC]

Not a bad day at all, considering it was suppose to rain most of the day. Currently 56F with partly cloudy conditions. Not the awesome weather of the past two weeks, but I'll take it!!

Brennan,

I've given up on this Winter. It's over...and it should be. It's March. Time to move on to Spring and hope for a better Winter next year. The chances of anything cold at this time of year is slim to none. So just give up...face the facts. Next week will be warm and sunny. And I'm excited!

Anthony

[Guest]

Anthony I am not going to face the facts... Because there are no FACTS TO FACE... It isn't written somewhere that it shouldn't get cold in mid march... I got nearly a foot of snow on March 21st just 3 years ago...

Ok TT... the Atmosphere knows that the grass is getting greener and the leaves on the trees are growing and the buds are blooming... So I think it just may change everything because of that...

I am keeping the faith, I do believe you and Anthony are going to be biting your toe nails come mid march. EWWW

[Guest]

And I didn't say I don't like this weather... And I never said it's not going to get warm/hot next week... I know a ridge is coming and I know it's going to get nice and toasty... LOOK BEYOND

[snow_wizzard]

Everyone is so short sighted. April 1984...81 on the 14th...wet snow at the end of the month. You just have not seen what a cold climate phase is capable of. Remember, I have a lot of records, and know what is possible and likely. It is not likely that we are going to see non stop warm weather from here on. If we do...bye bye summer. I will relish talking about fall in July, if that is the case.

By the way. I am not all that disappointed about this winter. We have had a lot of moderately cold weather (daily averages 5 - 9 degress below normal). Last year I was disappointed. After early Jan it was ridiculously warm. No cool signs like this year.

[TT-SEA]

So... we COULD get a little wet snow.

So what.

Its spring guys.

[TT-SEA]

Look beyond??

You always want us to do that. Ignore the nice weather outside our window right now. Look at the arctic blast that could be coming in two weeks!!

[TT-SEA]

Ironically the 18Z run of the GFS shows NO cold air coming in the next two weeks.

But insists on the next 7 days being warm!!

[Guest]

TT you must only read what you want to read because i noted that I NEVER SAID I DON'T LIKE THIS WEATHER... I know it is going to be warm next week and I know it is going to feel like spring...

So if we do get a wet snow event, all of the news stations are going to be up on it, full coverage, school delays and what not, it isn't going to feel like spring anymore...

Why can't you have an open mind and say HEY, that would be pretty awesome if we got really warm weather followed by cold and possibly snowy pattern... You are stuck on it being warm, sunny and spring...

[W13]

Snow_Wizzard,

It's march. Time for Spring and Summer. I'm tired of Winter...esp. this Winter. Nothing exciting has happened...no decent lowland snow event, no big snowstorm, no huge mountain snows...if you can't get any of those, why continue with Winter?! At this point, I want sunny conditions with temperatures near 75F. That would be perfect for me. And if current forecasts are correct, next week could come close to those numbers.

Because I don't like the 100º+ we get during the summer!!!

Oh wait, wrong part of the country!! Actually don't some of the desert/more arid areas in Washington get into the 100's during the summer?

Yes, Eastern Washington does regularly get into the 100's during the summer, while Western Washington (at least in the past few years), has a few days of mid to high 90's, and some 100 degree readings in the warmer spots.