HURAKAN wrote:BY THE WAY, THIS IS MY FIRST POST FROM MY NEW LAPTOP, MY BIRTHDAY IS ON TUESDAY, I WILL BE 18 YEARS OLD.[/i][/b]
Aww... Happy Birthday, Sandy (on Tuesday, that is)!!! Congrats on the new laptop. I just bought a new laptop last week.
Tropical Cyclone PERCY (20P)
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-
AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 28/0749 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 165.4W
AT 280600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 280554Z SSM/I DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
DEEP CONVECTION RE-ORGANISED OVER CDO WITH CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING
MORE SYMMETRICAL PAST 3 HOURS. SUGGESTION OF AN EYE [RE-APPEARING] IN
EIR IMAGERY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBD IN WHITE OR COLDER,
YIELDING DT=5.0. MET=5.0, PAT=4.5, FT BASED ON DT:
T5.0/5.0/W1.0/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH THEN
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS
UNLIKELY, DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 13.3S 164.9W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 14.2S 164.9W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 15.5S 165.0W MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 16.6S 165.4W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 281400 UTC.
Feb 28/0749 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 165.4W
AT 280600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 280554Z SSM/I DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
DEEP CONVECTION RE-ORGANISED OVER CDO WITH CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING
MORE SYMMETRICAL PAST 3 HOURS. SUGGESTION OF AN EYE [RE-APPEARING] IN
EIR IMAGERY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBD IN WHITE OR COLDER,
YIELDING DT=5.0. MET=5.0, PAT=4.5, FT BASED ON DT:
T5.0/5.0/W1.0/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH THEN
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS
UNLIKELY, DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 13.3S 164.9W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 14.2S 164.9W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 15.5S 165.0W MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 16.6S 165.4W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 281400 UTC.
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AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
HURAKAN wrote:senorpepr wrote:HURAKAN wrote:BY THE WAY, THIS IS MY FIRST POST FROM MY NEW LAPTOP, MY BIRTHDAY IS ON TUESDAY, I WILL BE 18 YEARS OLD.[/i][/b]
Aww... Happy Birthday, Sandy (on Tuesday, that is)!!! Congrats on the new laptop. I just bought a new laptop last week.
Thanks, the laptop is great.
Cool Sandy.
excuse ignorance but u are a gal right
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 28/1349 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 165.0W
AT 281200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES-9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 281005Z SSM/I DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
THE SMALL EYE THAT WAS BRIEFLY VISIBLE IN EIR IMAGERY HAS BECOME
CLOUD FILLED. CENTRAL CLOUD PATTERN IS SYMMETRICAL WITH CDG COLD TOPS
SURROUNDING INDISTINCT EYE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBD IN
WHITE OR COLDER, YIELDING DT=5.0. MET=PAT=5.0, CI HELD AT 5.5:
T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH THEN
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 36 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT INTENSITY COULD BE MAINTAINED FOR
ABOUT 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 13.2S 164.8W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 14.6S 164.8W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 16.3S 164.8W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 17.8S 164.0W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 282000 UTC.
Feb 28/1349 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 165.0W
AT 281200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES-9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 281005Z SSM/I DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
THE SMALL EYE THAT WAS BRIEFLY VISIBLE IN EIR IMAGERY HAS BECOME
CLOUD FILLED. CENTRAL CLOUD PATTERN IS SYMMETRICAL WITH CDG COLD TOPS
SURROUNDING INDISTINCT EYE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBD IN
WHITE OR COLDER, YIELDING DT=5.0. MET=PAT=5.0, CI HELD AT 5.5:
T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH THEN
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 36 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT INTENSITY COULD BE MAINTAINED FOR
ABOUT 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 13.2S 164.8W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 14.6S 164.8W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 16.3S 164.8W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 17.8S 164.0W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 282000 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/0138 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [935 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 165.0W
AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIRR BASED ON GOES-9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
SMALL AND IRREGULAR CLOUD-FILLED EYE VISIBLE ON EIR AND VIS IMAGES.
SOME SHEAR AND WARM AIR INTRUSION EVIDENT. LLCC STILL SURROUNDED WITH
CDG COLD TOPS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED B EYE AND CMG SURROUND, YIELDING
DT=6.0. MET=PAT=5.5, CI KEPT AT 5.5: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24HRS. PERCY
REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN MOST
QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS UNLIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 14.6S 165.3W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 16.4S 165.8W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 18.2S 165.7W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 19.9S 164.8W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 010800 UTC.
WELL, AFTER GOING THROUGH A BAD MOMENT IN ITS LIFE, TC PERCY BEGINS TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL ONCE AGAIN. PERCY PERSISTS IN ITS CONQUEST OF CONQUERING THE SOUTH.
Mar 01/0138 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [935 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 165.0W
AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIRR BASED ON GOES-9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
SMALL AND IRREGULAR CLOUD-FILLED EYE VISIBLE ON EIR AND VIS IMAGES.
SOME SHEAR AND WARM AIR INTRUSION EVIDENT. LLCC STILL SURROUNDED WITH
CDG COLD TOPS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED B EYE AND CMG SURROUND, YIELDING
DT=6.0. MET=PAT=5.5, CI KEPT AT 5.5: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24HRS. PERCY
REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN MOST
QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS UNLIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 14.6S 165.3W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 16.4S 165.8W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 18.2S 165.7W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 19.9S 164.8W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 010800 UTC.
WELL, AFTER GOING THROUGH A BAD MOMENT IN ITS LIFE, TC PERCY BEGINS TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL ONCE AGAIN. PERCY PERSISTS IN ITS CONQUEST OF CONQUERING THE SOUTH.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A20 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/1956 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [915 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 164.9W
AT 011800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
EYE HAS WARMED RAPIDLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. TMI PASS AT 1725Z
INDICATES A TIGHT CDO WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
MG EYE WITH A CDG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=MET=PAT=6.5, FT BASED ON DT :
T6.5/6.5/D1.0/12HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW OVER SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG PROJECTED PATH.
OUTFLOW IS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. PERCY IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 17.1S 165.0W MOV S AT 11 KT WITH 115 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 19.1S 165.0W MOV S AT 11 KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 21.5S 164.4W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 24.3S 162.6W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020200 UTC.
TWO WORDS: "BEAUTIFUL PERCY"
Mar 01/1956 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [915 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 164.9W
AT 011800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
EYE HAS WARMED RAPIDLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. TMI PASS AT 1725Z
INDICATES A TIGHT CDO WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
MG EYE WITH A CDG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=MET=PAT=6.5, FT BASED ON DT :
T6.5/6.5/D1.0/12HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW OVER SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG PROJECTED PATH.
OUTFLOW IS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. PERCY IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 17.1S 165.0W MOV S AT 11 KT WITH 115 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 19.1S 165.0W MOV S AT 11 KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 21.5S 164.4W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 24.3S 162.6W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020200 UTC.
TWO WORDS: "BEAUTIFUL PERCY"
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
HurricaneBill wrote:Does Percy seem kinda "bipolar"?
It seems he's been weakening, then strengthening, then weakening, then strengthening.......
Certainly strengthend today:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/2022 UTC 15.3S 165.2W T6.5/6.5 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean
01/1422 UTC 14.3S 164.9W T6.0/6.0 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean
01/0752 UTC 13.6S 165.3W T5.0/5.5 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Hurricane Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/0059 UTC 2005 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone PERCY [900 hPa] centre was located near 15 decimal 7 South 165
decimal 4 West at 020000 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 15.7S 165.4W at 020000 UTC.
Cyclone moving southwest at 10 knots and expected to curve south.
Expect sustained winds of 125 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre,
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 180 miles of centre in the northeast quadrant
and within 120 miles elsewhere of centre.
Forecast position near 17.3S 166.1W at 021200 UTC
and near 19.2S 165.9W at 030000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports
every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other
vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 004.
165 mph (1-min avg) ... 900mb / 26.58"
Tropical Cyclone PERCY [900 hPa] centre was located near 15 decimal 7 South 165
decimal 4 West at 020000 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 15.7S 165.4W at 020000 UTC.
Cyclone moving southwest at 10 knots and expected to curve south.
Expect sustained winds of 125 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre,
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 180 miles of centre in the northeast quadrant
and within 120 miles elsewhere of centre.
Forecast position near 17.3S 166.1W at 021200 UTC
and near 19.2S 165.9W at 030000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports
every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other
vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 004.
165 mph (1-min avg) ... 900mb / 26.58"
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A21 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 02/0149 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 165.4W
AT 020000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.
WARM PIXEL IN PERCY'S EYE REGISTERED 8 DEGREES CELSIUS IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES. CDO REMAINS TIGHT WITH A CLOUD FREE AND CONCENTRIC
EYE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE WITH A CMG SURROUND, YIELDING
DT=MET=PAT=7.0, FT BASED ON DT : T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS
IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE OVER
SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG PROJECTED PATH. OUTFLOW IS STRONG IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONE
IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS. PERCY SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 17.3S 166.1W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 125
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 19.2S 165.9W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 21.5S 164.8W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 23.4S 163.2W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020800 UTC.
Mar 02/0149 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 165.4W
AT 020000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.
WARM PIXEL IN PERCY'S EYE REGISTERED 8 DEGREES CELSIUS IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES. CDO REMAINS TIGHT WITH A CLOUD FREE AND CONCENTRIC
EYE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE WITH A CMG SURROUND, YIELDING
DT=MET=PAT=7.0, FT BASED ON DT : T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS
IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE OVER
SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG PROJECTED PATH. OUTFLOW IS STRONG IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONE
IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS. PERCY SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 17.3S 166.1W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 125
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 19.2S 165.9W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 21.5S 164.8W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 23.4S 163.2W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020800 UTC.
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Scorpion
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
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- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Awesome loop... but I'm only posting the link. It's a killer, sizewise.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn2/ ... -1648W.gif
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn2/ ... -1648W.gif
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
P.K. wrote:HurricaneBill wrote:Does Percy seem kinda "bipolar"?
It seems he's been weakening, then strengthening, then weakening, then strengthening.......
Certainly strengthend today:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/2022 UTC 15.3S 165.2W T6.5/6.5 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean
01/1422 UTC 14.3S 164.9W T6.0/6.0 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean
01/0752 UTC 13.6S 165.3W T5.0/5.5 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean
And now 7.5. Guys, I'm tempted to say that Percy is now a 155 knots or 180 mph tropical cyclone based on the latest Dvorak estimates, which are certainly visible in the satellite images. THIS IS A BIG ONE.
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
HURAKAN wrote:And now 7.5. Guys, I'm tempted to say that Percy is now a 155 knots or 180 mph tropical cyclone based on the latest Dvorak estimates, which are certainly visible in the satellite images. THIS IS A BIG ONE.
The only other South Pacific cyclone to reach that intensity was Cyclone Zoe in 2002!
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