Snow_Wizzard,
I do agree to some degree. 12 months of this weather would get old. But since it doesn't happen very often...esp. in Winter...let's enjoy, okay?! I mean, when's the next time a February will be this warm/dry?! Probably never. And let's enjoy next week, because there are signs a pattern change may be on the horizon.
Anthony
STILL 52F.
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Today was downright HOTT in the sun... I drove by a few thermometers in Bellingham today that read 63 and 61 at about 2:30PM... Man it felt good outside. Since it is only the beginning of march... It feels like SUMMER when you get into your car after the hott sun had been beeting on it... Well it's pretty nice i'd say...
As for the long term, if it isn't going to get cold or at least below normal, I would rather keep this warm weather... I don't want 50* and rain, that is just too boring... Warm and sunny, or cold... cold and rainy, cold and snowy, cold and dry, it don't matter.... I don't want 50* and rainy...
As for the long term, if it isn't going to get cold or at least below normal, I would rather keep this warm weather... I don't want 50* and rain, that is just too boring... Warm and sunny, or cold... cold and rainy, cold and snowy, cold and dry, it don't matter.... I don't want 50* and rainy...
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I don't care if we need rain and snow in the mountains or whatever... This is a standout year and all I want is standout weather now... I hope the mountains get 0 more inches of snow this winter and everyone freaks out... Then come mid september and we just get clobbered with cool and wet weather all fall that gives our mountains HUGE dumps of snow... Come november and the lowlands are getting in on the fun... something like the early 1860's would be fun.
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Nice pics Andy!! Right now I am having some septic and drainfield issues, so my yard is completely dug up and ripped apart so as soon as the drainfield is fixed I will be quite busy relandscaping the yard. Normally I would be excited about it, but I get enough of that stuff at work 
Current temp is 44.8 degrees and clear
Current temp is 44.8 degrees and clear
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good evening all. Viewing the 18z GFS, along with ECMWF...tomorrow looks to be another nice day with just a few clouds around. 500MB vorticity heights are 558DM with Southerly to SSW winds of 20 to 30kts. 850MB temps are around +3C with light SW winds of 10 to 15kts and heights of about 1470M. 5th - 7th look like alright days, but a weak system tries to throw some very light precip into the Northern interior areas for 6th/7th time frame. Then for 8th and 9th...looks like maybe a few possible light showers. Am wanting to disreguard/ignore thoes light showers as 500MB heights will approaching 570DM level by middle of next week. So will go for partly cloudy skies and highs near 70 during that time.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...You are talking my kind of language! Wet and COLD!
I still disagree that any of the weather in February was spring, but that's all past us now. No doubt that from Feb 28 till now, it has been very spring like. The air has a completely different feel to it. The frogs began croaking at night about two days ago...now that is spring weather. In Feb, those poor things would have froze their butts off if they had been out!
Have you guys been reading the thread that Don Sutherland started. Oh Yeah!!!!
I still disagree that any of the weather in February was spring, but that's all past us now. No doubt that from Feb 28 till now, it has been very spring like. The air has a completely different feel to it. The frogs began croaking at night about two days ago...now that is spring weather. In Feb, those poor things would have froze their butts off if they had been out!
Have you guys been reading the thread that Don Sutherland started. Oh Yeah!!!!
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good late evening all. Viewing the 00z run of the GFS, looks like we could still have an alright day tomorrow with maybe just a few clouds. 5th - 8th, it appears that some weak systems will be clipping our northern areas. 9th - 10th features what appears to be some pretty good rain showers. Then finally...11th and 12th, a weak but temporwary high pressure ridge builds up, only to be flattened by a 1008MB low that brings numerous showers on the 13th...followed by very cool and very showery trough on the 14th with 500MB vorticity heights lowering to near 528DM.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Looking this morning 06z GFS....there does`nt really appear to be a big ridge in the short term forecast, as we`ll have a chance of showers to scattered light showers from about Sunday the 6th through Saturday the 12th. Then 13th - 18th looks like a some what strong ridge of high pressure building up, only to be shattered by a very cool and moist airmass on the 19th ans 500MB vorticity height drop to near 528DM.
Note.
To see a cold airmass 16 days out in the weather models...and get excited about it...is not really worth getting ones hopes up as this could just be a fluke and be completely thrown out in the next models. Just a thought.
-- Andy
Note.
To see a cold airmass 16 days out in the weather models...and get excited about it...is not really worth getting ones hopes up as this could just be a fluke and be completely thrown out in the next models. Just a thought.
-- Andy
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Yeah Andy I was kidding... But it still fun to imagine something like that happening. It sort of looks like what was suppose to happen here in early January... I wonder what causes these models to screw up so badly. I think they need to take the last 6 days off of the GFS and make the operational model for 10 days out and have ensemble members for the last 6 days.
It does look like we could be seeing more of that what shows on day 16 of the 6z though here in the upcoming winters... With an overall shift to negative PDO, we are almost guarenteed great winters to come. Every single winter since the records show with a PDO a good deal below normal had at least 1 good arctic blast. I think the last 2 years was a big step towards better winters... Before last year, we hadn't had an arctic outbreak since 1998, an absence of over 5 years without a true arctic outbreak. And now this year we came soooo close to having a major arctic outbreak with a relatively snowy pattern...(1950)lol... Like snowwizzard told me last night, the indexes weren't good enough to support a big blast like that... In 1950 there was an extremely low PDO, PNA and the AO was deeply negative to hold the pattern on lock... I hope next year's PDO dives, that will be the sign to whether or not we will be in it next year...
It does look like we could be seeing more of that what shows on day 16 of the 6z though here in the upcoming winters... With an overall shift to negative PDO, we are almost guarenteed great winters to come. Every single winter since the records show with a PDO a good deal below normal had at least 1 good arctic blast. I think the last 2 years was a big step towards better winters... Before last year, we hadn't had an arctic outbreak since 1998, an absence of over 5 years without a true arctic outbreak. And now this year we came soooo close to having a major arctic outbreak with a relatively snowy pattern...(1950)lol... Like snowwizzard told me last night, the indexes weren't good enough to support a big blast like that... In 1950 there was an extremely low PDO, PNA and the AO was deeply negative to hold the pattern on lock... I hope next year's PDO dives, that will be the sign to whether or not we will be in it next year...
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TT-SEA
Not a bad day at all today! Filtered sunshine with mild temperatures...about 58F.
The extended doesn't look as good as has been advertised the past week. I ridge of high pressure builds tomorrow, but weak weather systems ride over the ridge to affect the northern portions of Western Washington. Doesn't mean it'll be a washout, but it won't be the sun I wanted. Still, temperatures will be VERY mild...mid 60s sounds good!
In the far extended, a pattern shift is looking more likely. The huge ridge in the west, trough in the east will slowly transition to a zonal flow and then possibly a trough in the west, ridge in the east. After day 10, things look interesting when 500 mb heights lower to below 528. But remember, it's the middle of March. So even though 500 mb heights are that low, it's not the same as if it were December of January...when temperatures would be in the middle 30s...probably the middle 40s for this time of year.
One big change, ALOT OF PRECIP is coming. I guess it's good for the mountains and reservoirs, but I just want this sunny/warm weather to continue!!
Anthony
The extended doesn't look as good as has been advertised the past week. I ridge of high pressure builds tomorrow, but weak weather systems ride over the ridge to affect the northern portions of Western Washington. Doesn't mean it'll be a washout, but it won't be the sun I wanted. Still, temperatures will be VERY mild...mid 60s sounds good!
In the far extended, a pattern shift is looking more likely. The huge ridge in the west, trough in the east will slowly transition to a zonal flow and then possibly a trough in the west, ridge in the east. After day 10, things look interesting when 500 mb heights lower to below 528. But remember, it's the middle of March. So even though 500 mb heights are that low, it's not the same as if it were December of January...when temperatures would be in the middle 30s...probably the middle 40s for this time of year.
One big change, ALOT OF PRECIP is coming. I guess it's good for the mountains and reservoirs, but I just want this sunny/warm weather to continue!!
Anthony
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TT-SEA
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