Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Well...at least ash fall is a "weather type" they won't see back east! We needed to see something.

[TT-SEA]

Even the ash fall misses Seattle!!

[R-Dub]

Even the ash fall misses Seattle!!

Nothing can penitrate the monster ridge

[andrewr]

I consider our temperatures today a real weather event. If it was 55-60 and sunny, then I would agree with you, but temps making it well into the 70's is interesting.

[andycottle]

Looking the latest GEM and GFS models...tomorrow still appears to maybe have a few sprinkles/light rain showers, but also just a tad cooler..as in the mid 60`s. 10th - 15th still pretty dry with the exception of a stray sprinkel on the 12th. Then from the 16th onward...weather is still look quite wet with 500MB vorticities in the 540`s and 550`sDM.
-- Andy

[R-Dub]

Currently 57 degrees and cloudy as of 8:50PM Breezy also.

[R-Dub]

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 430 PM PST TUE MAR 8 2005 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TIED AND BROKEN TODAY... DATE SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD TIED/BROKEN 3/8 OLYMPIA 70 70 IN 2004 T 3/8 NOAA SANDPOINT 69 69 IN 2004 T 3/8 SEA-TAC 67 65 IN 2004 B 3/8 STAMPEDE PASS 61 55 IN 2004 B

[TT-SEA]

We had the same weather last year!!

Nothing spectacular about this.

[andrewr]

Yeah, I guess your right. I didn't realize it was almost the exact same weather this same time last year. Perhaps we are headed into a warmer and drier period (a.k.a. snow_wizzard's worst nightmare)?

[snow_wizzard]

Nnnooooo! Not that!

I am actually not worried at all, because what is coming is much different than last year was. I will have more later!

[snow_wizzard]

The new 0z is a bit different. It actually moves up the timing of shifting into a negative PNA by a day or two. By day three the 500mb - 1000mb thickness is already down to 540, and we have a moderate to strong NW to SE pressure gradient. That should create brisk north winds down the Puget Sound basin which will result in considerably cooler highs by Saturday. By Saturday night the wind sheltered areas will drop below freezing. As the thickness falls to 525 and 850mb temps drop to about -4 or -5, early next week, some areas will drop into the 20s. The favored areas for the really cold lows will be the areas sheltered from north winds...that's you TT! The GFS insists there will be no downsloping so the temperatures will easily slide to below normal by Sunday at the latest. The ECMWF has downsloping on Saturday and Sunday, but then a straight north wind by Monday.

The big difference between the GFS and ECMWF continues to be whether the ridge pinches off around day 8 or 9. If it does not pinch off we stay cold and mainly dry...if it does pinch off we go into a cool and wet pattern. This could easily be the best period for snow in the mountains so far this winter. At any rate, the mamby pamby crap is almost over!

[TT-SEA]

The last few days have been the best of this dry spell

I REALLY like this warm air mass... high dewpoints... and NO stagnant fog. The conditions are perfect.

This pattern of high pressure and a front offshore to stir things up creates my favorite Seattle days.

I have no desire for sub-freezing lows at all.

None.

But alas... you may be right about North Bend.

Still... I know that we desperately need a cool zonal flow so anything that can get us there is important.

[snow_wizzard]

I am really starting to like you TT.

You can be quite sensible...AT TIMES. I am looking forward to what could be a fun ride over the next two weeks. We can only hope that there will be some fun surprises along the way.

I really like this surface pressure map for Sunday. By then we could have thicknesses below 528 with a BRISK north wind. This would spell my idea of a delightful day. High temps around 50, dew points in the 20s, crystal clear skies, and a nice snap to the air. A far different feel than we had today!

http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/5d/avn_pres_5d.html

[snow_wizzard]

THERE IS ACTUALLY RAIN SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR. ACTUAL WEATHER!!!! I FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD SOUND A RED ALERT OR SOMETHING....

It certainly does appear we will get a nice little bit of rain late tonight and early tomorrow. Perhaps 2/10 or maybe a quarter inch. At least it's something!

[andycottle]

Well viewing the 0z GFS...tomorrows weather features a few showers and possiably lingering into the early morning hours of the 10th. The 11th looks mostly dry. But then the 12th, we may have some steady rain..per NAM model, or just a few sprinkles. High pressure should start to rebuild late in the day on the 12th and lasts through the 16th. Though we may actually see some cooling down of the temps rather than seeing the continuing warm spell as of late. We will see what happens in the next set of model runs. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Currently RAINING!!!!
Haven't seen that in a long time, we are up to a whopping .01"

3/9/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:37:14 AM CURRENT
LT. Rain
Temperature (ºF) 50.5
Humidity (%) 95.8
Wind (mph) ESE 2.0
Daily Rain (") 0.01
Pressure ("Hg) 30.28
Dew Point: 50.4 ºF

[R-Dub]

Sounds like record breaking temps for the last part of this week, then below normal temps for next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 302 AM PST WED MAR 9 2005

ALAS...LOOK FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW THE REST OF THIS WEEK FOR CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER. ALSO...WE MAY EXPERIENCE RECORD OR NEAR WARMTH ONCE AGAIN ON THU IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FRI THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG WAVE FEATURES WILL RETROGRADE...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...NLY FLOW AND A COOLING TREND...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST GFS SHOWED A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROF QUICKLY MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. NOT READY TO LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION YET BECAUSE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT.

[andycottle]

Cloudy skies and 55 degrees here at 8:32a.m with humidity 94% and DP 54. Baro is 30.06 and steady. Thinnk we had a little rain real early this morning, but was not even enough to measure in my rain gage. -- Andy

[andycottle]

This mornings 06z GFS showing a few light shower for tomorrow through early part of Thursday, and maybe during the day Friday to. Then about the 12th - 18th, we have high pressure incontrol, but also turning much cooler by the 19th as a very cool trough comes dwon from the north to spread clouds and showers and maybe even some snow for the mountains. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Our rain is over already
Back to the sun and warm i guess