Big Storm ??? Next Week Will be The Week...

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I know that people in New England may say "who are you kidding" as they have been nailed time and time again, and the pattern we're leaving it was New England that would bear the brunt... Clippers coming down and re-developing coastal energy thats a situation where places south of New England... It just doesn't come together quick enough, an example of this will be seen on the Friday storm system as well.

Next week though the trof that has been locked in the east will migrate west-ward and flatten, this will mean the core of new cold will be attacking the plains and we will begin to see storms actually moving from west to east across the country, now one might wonder "if the core of the cold is now the plains how will it be cold enough to snow in the east", very easily... I don't care if its March there is alot cold air just hanging around and its not in a hurry to get out of here...

Also the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business next week, more so than at any other time seen this winter...

Result:
There will be a boundry that sets up from Kansas City to in Washington DC, north of that line there will be snow threats from several systems that will be moving across the country, One of these storms may try to cut off and become a monster it's happened before, in March and even April... This is how I feel the winter pattern will break and end.

quick tid bit: This may end up being a situation where the Northern Mid-Atlantic gets nailed and New England does not, if it comes true, I think after this weekend New England you might be done at least in the way of big storms (6"+)

[Stephanie]

I do hope that you're right about this being Winter's parting shot!!

[JETSTREAM BOB]

I can buy your snow line-----------

[Jrodd312]

I can buy your snow line-----------

Jer i have a question. When you say that the northern mid-atlantic would get the brunt of it would philly be in that zone?

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Jrodd...

Here is piece of today's weather forecast discussion from the National Weather Service, the first one is from Mount Holly, NJ, (Philly's zone)...

BEYOND DAY 7, THERE COULD BE SOME INTERESTING STORMINESS IN THE PIPELINE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK MAY START TO BREAK DOWN. IF THIS OCCURS, THERE COULD BE ONE MORE SHOT OF WINTER, THEN MAYBE BRING ON SPRING. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS BLOCKY PATTERN BEHAVES OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS.

Here is the statement from State College's office...

COULD BE A RATHER INTERESTING PERIOD OF WX LATER NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG BLOCK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENS. VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S...AS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF SW U.S. ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE FOR FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PA...CERTAINLY WL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS

[krysof]

Nah i don't think so, we are done here in new jersey, Philly, and areas further south.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Krysof, do you have anthing to back up that statement, I laid out a pattern overview that could spell trouble I also posted sources from the NWS that agree, and could post (if it was legal) several senior Met's from Accuweather that are concerned about a major storm next week...

And you say "no I think we're done"


Come on.....

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Winter's her for at least the next week...

[krysof]

Northeaster, Come on its March. It's mid March. What do you mean next week, not this week, not Friday or Saturday which doesn't look like a big deal with 6 inches max in Northern new england.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Krysof... The biggest snowfall in PA history was Morgantown, PA... 54" in one storm that occured in March, in a pattern not too dis-similar from the pattrn that i sevolving for next week. AS for Friday-Saturday it will not be a big storm 1" in the big cities, but >6" is possible in New England, its been the story all winter storms want to blow up in New England, nothing has changed and sometimes you just have to ride the horse that got you here. As for next week again some big storms happened in March, did you ever hear of the Palm Sunday Snowstorm, obviously that was in late March, you'll see...

The pattern has been one of extremes and to break that pattern there will have to be a big storm, this is often called the "Rubberband" Theory, the rubberband will be puuled to hard and one of two things happens...

a) It snaps back to the oppisite extreme (which has been the case all winter) and it continues back and forth

b) And this is the only way to stop this merry-go-round... Is for the rubberband to be pulled so that it breaks releasing energy (ala a storm) and the the pattern itself too, can be reset

[Jrodd312]

Krysof... The biggest snowfall in PA history was Morgantown, PA... 54" in one storm that occured in March, in a pattern not too dis-similar from the pattrn that i sevolving for next week. AS for Friday-Saturday it will not be a big storm 1" in the big cities, but >6" is possible in New England, its been the story all winter storms want to blow up in New England, nothing has changed and sometimes you just have to ride the horse that got you here. As for next week again some big storms happened in March, did you ever hear of the Palm Sunday Snowstorm, obviously that was in late March, you'll see...

The pattern has been one of extremes and to break that pattern there will have to be a big storm, this is often called the "Rubberband" Theory, the rubberband will be puuled to hard and one of two things happens...

a) It snaps back to the oppisite extreme (which has been the case all winter) and it continues back and forth

b) And this is the only way to stop this merry-go-round... Is for the rubberband to be pulled so that it breaks releasing energy (ala a storm) and the the pattern itself too, can be reset

So are you saying that you think there will be a big storm coming soon??

[sauss]

yer right about pa. our biggest storms usually always hit in march
ding ding ding. were ready

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Jrodd... I'm saying that there is definite potential in a pattern that has just been crazy, the details are fuzzy though and some tings just aren't adding up... This is a theory that happens to fit the facts of a pattern that in the past has produced the biggest snowstorms in history from places north of Washington DC, but south of Boston...


We'll have to see where this goes, at this point its hard to tell, but yes the potential is there, time though is running out.

[BlizzzardMan]

I either want a blockbuster of a snowstorm or spring to get here! I'm getting tired of these wimpy little clippers getting me here with an inch of snow and then turning into monsters out in the Atlantic missing me once they do. Hopefully next week we'll get something decent here! If not, bring on spring!

[Stephanie]

I either want a blockbuster of a snowstorm or spring to get here! I'm getting tired of these wimpy little clippers getting me here with an inch of snow and then turning into monsters out in the Atlantic missing me once they do. Hopefully next week we'll get something decent here! If not, bring on spring!

I'm hoping for spring myself. Hopefully, this is Father Winter's last gasp this weekend. I'm tired of it!!!

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I was wrong about one ting in one of my posts above, Winter is far from done, next week may just be the beginning of a nasty period that could last into April