Ok boys and girls, sit back and enjoy my ramblings...
1) March 4th 1960- 12"+ PA and Southern New England
2) March 29th 1984- 3"/hour snowfall rates with 80 mph winds in NJ
3) March 21st 1958- PA Snowfall record of 54" (one storm) in Morgantown, PA
What do all three of these storms have in common, besides the fact that they occured in March ???
Answer- The pattern 3 days before hand were identical, what's more is that the Euro is showing the exact, and I mean the exact set up, particularly for the March 60' storm On Tuesday of next week.
How do we get there...
First the block over Greenland is migrating westward, this will make the sharp trough in the East, much broader, it will also stop this uneccassary pattern where the Alberta Clippers are the dominating feature screaming out of the NW... Instead we will see a return to storms moving west to east across the country, we will see a system come out of southwest US nextweek, this sytem will track due east... Now some might say that the ridge is popping up in the southeast and should
a) force warm air into the pattern
b) force the storm to cut to the lakes
Well a) is right to some degree as warm moist air will enter the pattern, but it will not dominate, all a) will really do is force an abundance of moister from the Gulf of Mexico, fuel for the fire if you will...
As for b)... isn't going to happen, and the reason why is simple... the block. The block will force storms to cut underneath, and it will force energy south and east despite the Southeast ridge, storms will have to ride the boundry of very warm and very cold to excape this boundry is from Kansas City to Washington, DC (perhaps a touch south of there)
Height fall will occur right into the ridge and flatten it due to the block
More evidence... the SOI has flipped in a mjor way due to a tropical storm effecting Austrailia, this argues for major amplitude in the east in a week
By the way all three storms noted above had a similar block and southeast ridge days prior to each event.
Finally the myth has backers...
Today's Canadian run has a major storm moving as outlined above hitting the Northern Middle Atlantic Coast late next week, The Euro also is arguing for the pattern set-up just prior... And the dreaded GFS is now showwing this possibilty at week's end (it just has the details wrong)
Now as for wil it be cold enough... Yes for crying out loud, and this goes to you Krysof...
There is way too much cold air hangging around and there is nothing there to force it out, the block will also help with forcing cold into the pattern, but once again it will be a braoder kind of cold not directed souly at the Northeast.
As for long term implications... I did mention that this storm could break the winter pattern... I believe now that I was wrong about that part as I really see the pattern reloading now, that NAO just isn't coming up enough for me to say that winter will be over after this... In fact there is model support saying that Early April could be just as cold as Early March...
So what to expect... A major storm next Friday East Coast, Mid Atlantic (New England, not you)
Rain or Snow ???? Very early to tell, pattern argues for more cold than warm...
Big snows possible...
winter not close to over
"March Monster"... Not Just A Theory Anymore...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Noreaster_Jer_04
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Noreaster_Jer_04
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Scorpion
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weathermom
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scorpion- Depressing why? Because it gets cold and snowy?
The Northeast is a beautiful place to live. In the winter we get to enjoy the quiet beauty of a snowfall, or sometimes the windy fury of a blizzard while we are tucked warm inside our homes, spending time with our families. Have you ever taken a long walk in the snow and listened to the quiet? You can almost hear the flakes fall. How about the joy of watching children catch snowflakes on their tongues? Or the sounds of children happily sledding down a hill, or building a jump out of snow to make the sledding more exciting? Have you seen the quiet beauty of snow coating all the limbs overhanging a river, shimmering in the sun after a snowfall? Have you ever stood at the top of a mountain and experienced the feeling just before skiing down?
If these things are depressing, then I guess someone forgot to tell me I should be depressed. I guess life is what you make it!
The Northeast is a beautiful place to live. In the winter we get to enjoy the quiet beauty of a snowfall, or sometimes the windy fury of a blizzard while we are tucked warm inside our homes, spending time with our families. Have you ever taken a long walk in the snow and listened to the quiet? You can almost hear the flakes fall. How about the joy of watching children catch snowflakes on their tongues? Or the sounds of children happily sledding down a hill, or building a jump out of snow to make the sledding more exciting? Have you seen the quiet beauty of snow coating all the limbs overhanging a river, shimmering in the sun after a snowfall? Have you ever stood at the top of a mountain and experienced the feeling just before skiing down?
If these things are depressing, then I guess someone forgot to tell me I should be depressed. I guess life is what you make it!
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weathermom
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Stephanie
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That was an excellent post weathermom!
Winter isn't my favorite time of the year, but I know that I would miss the change of the seasons if I didn't live here in the Mid Atlantic. I am definately ready for spring, but I do excited at the beginning of winter when we get the first snow fall. It is a silent beauty during and after a snow fall. Everything is so peaceful and glistening.
Winter isn't my favorite time of the year, but I know that I would miss the change of the seasons if I didn't live here in the Mid Atlantic. I am definately ready for spring, but I do excited at the beginning of winter when we get the first snow fall. It is a silent beauty during and after a snow fall. Everything is so peaceful and glistening.
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Noreaster_Jer_04
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May bite the bullet posting a map about this thing this early...
But here is where I feel the threat is for snow, heavier in the brighter white, also I'd like to say that I feel it is possible for New England to get in the action here as is shown on the map, but it would only be southern NE in the heavy snow area... Confidence is growing that this could be a severe winter event...
Other than that no changes to what I outlined yesterday more on this as the day goes on
But here is where I feel the threat is for snow, heavier in the brighter white, also I'd like to say that I feel it is possible for New England to get in the action here as is shown on the map, but it would only be southern NE in the heavy snow area... Confidence is growing that this could be a severe winter event...
Other than that no changes to what I outlined yesterday more on this as the day goes on
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Noreaster_Jer_04
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Jrodd... Keep your fingers crossed, model support at this time is weak, but it is there, and the analog years I have noted in the initial post are striking in similarities to this week's pattern, I'm hoping too buddy... And don't worry I will be updating very frequently about all of this on here
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I posted something on this in the Lawrence/Kansas City thread. To be sure, the 12Z GFS looks darned good for this area-in respect to how bad this winter has been. I mean, if we got 4 inches from this, Kansas City would stand still!!!!LOL!!! The 12Z gives us close to 3/4 inch of precip with the whole colum below freezing for the whole event. Will this verify-very doubtfull. I would expect the snow to move much farther North by the time we get closer to the real time. Interesting though that the 12Z EURO has the storm stronger than on the 0z run this morning. Maybe we will finally get a good snow here this winter-have had 5 inches in 2005!!! Of course, with me being in Colorado next week, I would almost bet that it does verify-the one time the GFS is right this far out the past 3 years-just have me leave town!!!! Def. something for this area to watch-if KC got a major snow now, people would freak big time!!! By the way, this is a great thread-awesome info!!!
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