Pacific Northwest Weather

[Guest]

I can't believe that this is causing them to talk about global warming... It isn't NORTHWEST US warming either as they seem to think. If you all wouldn't have posted it first, I would have mentioned the 1998-1999 snowfall year in the mountains... It all evens out, we had our good snowfall years in the 90's, and we are paying for it now. It will come back... As for the short term and long term future, I can;t believe Anthony and R-Dub think this weather could go on for 2-3 weeks... There is no way it will go on at all... THe pattern change is here and you will be surprised in just a couple days.

[andycottle]

The average or normal temp for say Everett is 52 for a high and 37 for a low for this date.

Ok...next question.. Is there a way to find out if my temp was above or below normal for the day/week? Like for example...here`s a run down of my high/low temps this month up through yesterday the 9th. -- Andy

1st...63/44
2nd..58/44
3rd...64/37
4th...62/39
5th...61/41
6th...64/47
7th...59/48
8th...71/42
9th...63/48

[TT-SEA]

Dude... I don't need to check.

That is ABOVE normal for March!!

[R-Dub]

Dude... I don't need to check.

That is ABOVE normal for March!!

Yeah Andy, without even checking, that is above normal, but if you want to know I go here..........http://www.wunderground.c ... erett.html , then scroll down and look for the normal temps.

[snow_wizzard]

Here you go Andy...These are the norms for Sea - Tac.

http://www.beautifulseattle.com/tempstat.asp

[R-Dub]

WOW 1955 must have been a really cold month in Seattle with a record low of 11 degrees around the 4th

[R-Dub]

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 450 PM PST THU MAR 10 2005 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN WESTERN WASHINGTON AS OF 4PM... LOCATION HI TODAY OLD RECORD / YEAR BELLINGHAM 65 64 / 1965 QUILLAYUTE 60 59 / 1993 SANDPOINT WSFO 66 62 / 1996 STAMPEDE PASS 61 54 / 1992

[snow_wizzard]

Oh yeah! 1955 was a wickedly cold year. March, April, and May were all among the coldest of those months ever recorded. There must be at least 20 record lows from that year.

Speaking of cold...this is rather eye popping. I think this cold spel is going to happen. This run continues the trend of keeping the offshore ridge intact for a longer time, which means a better chance of getting some really cold in here.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_144m.htm

The big change from some previous runs is that the low does not dig out over the ocean so much. That had been the cause of the offshore ridge blowing its top in previous runs.

[andycottle]

Dude... I don't need to check.

That is ABOVE normal for March!!

Righ back at ya Dude..lol hahaha

[andycottle]

Here you go Andy...These are the norms for Sea - Tac.

http://www.beautifulseattle.com/tempstat.asp

Thanks Randy and snow wizzard...but really...I wanted to know for my area of Woodinville. Now in my weather obs for this year so far...there are a few near normal high temps, but I didn`t see any below normal high temps.

Another question...is there a way to figure out normal/average low temp for the night? -- Andy

[andycottle]

Latest 00z shows high pressure still continuing through about Tuesday of next week, with maybe some precip by the morning of the 16th. But we`ll probably just end up with some clouds. Cooler weather begins by monday and then maybe even cooler by next Sunday as a pretty cool trough drops out of the North to spread numerous showers across our area. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... you are a hopeless optimist!!

The GFS has been showing some kind of major pattern change starting around Monday (3/14) for about 15 runs now so something is going to happen!!

This latest run of the GFS has an amazing zonal flow in 2 weeks. This has been a general theme as well. Though the details are still sketchy.

If true... we would get COPIOUS rain and mountain snow.

That would be PERFECT.

There is a big difference between this upcoming situation and the other times the GFS showed a pattern change in recent weeks. This is a global shift... a gigantic reshuffling if you will. Its quite impressive and all models are showing a major change. The devil is in the details.

Rest assured... our warm, dry weather is just about over.

[andrewr]

That's a bold prediction TT, I hope you're right so we can start getting some different type of weather in here.

[snow_wizzard]

Now this is different! Can you say snow in the mountains?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_276m.htm

This is nearly a miracle to see this kind of pattern considering where we have so far this winter. This will certainly go down as one of the oddest winters on record!

[snow_wizzard]

Andy...I could work up some normals for Woodinville. I have Bothell records for 1948 - 1959 and Woodinville records for 1991 - 2000. That would give a pretty well rounded normal from both a cold phase and warm phase period. It would take me a while to do that, but it's a project I have wanted to do. Also, there were some below normal highs in January and a few scattered through Feb. The main cold weather this winter has certainly been on the lows.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You are right. We will still need a few things to go our way to get the really cold in here next week. At any rate we should see some below highs and lows next week. I would guess at first we will see near normal highs and cold nights, and then go to below normal highs and slightly below normal lows. Once again the upper level pattern is fantastic early next week, but there is still no bitterly cold air close enough to really nail us. That has been a common theme over the past year or so. I am sure that such beautiful upper air patterns will eventually deliver the really cold air. We have just been plain unlucky this winter.

[andycottle]

Hey question here. About the drought...

Does anyone here think that the drought will be REALLY bad this year to where water might be shut off? My step mom made the comment that she remembers the water being turned off for a period of time back in 1992 when there was a Major drought. I certainy hope it doesn`t get that bad, because my main idea is to have a really good looking garden this year.
-- Andy

[Guest]

There will be no drought... Plain and simple.

[R-Dub]

Currently at 5:20AM
Clear
43.6 degrees

Off to work, then its back to play in the lake in the afternoon

I think a lot of people overreact to the could be drought!
If you think about it, So Cal went like 4 yrs without hardly a drop of water and they survived, Wa State freaks out when we have 2 dry months

[TT-SEA]

The situation in Southern California is very different than in Washington. They have to import 85% of their water normally... so the rain that falls down there is not critical to their water supply.

Unlike here in the PNW.

For what its worth... the 06Z run of the GFS continues to show a wild pattern for next week and then a POWERFUL zonal flow for the following week.

The geneal theme of each run is very consistent.