Tropical Cyclone WILLY (23S)

[AussieMark]

It's also a rather large storm.

Willy looks around 4 times the size of Ingrid.

but storms off the WA coast have historically been large systems.

[James]

The latest satellite images seem to reveal an eye forming.

[HURAKAN]

Name: Willy
Severity Category: 3
Situation At: 6AM WST Friday 11 March 2005
Location: 15.9S 113.9E
Recent Movement: SW at 17 km/h
Remarks: Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy is likely to continue intensifying as it moves steadily to the southwest. However it is not expected to impact the WA coast within the next 48 hours.

The next track map will be issued by 1:30pm WST Friday.

TC WILLY IS ALREADY POWERFUL BUT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT STOP AT THIS MOMENT.

[HURAKAN]

The latest satellite images seem to reveal an eye forming.

JAMES, YOU'RE 100% RIGHT. THERE WE SEE A SMALL EYE DEVELOPING IN THE MASSIVE STRUCTURE OF SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILLY.

[AussieMark]

our forcasters have been saying on the weather channel that Willy may hit the middle section of the western Australia coast on Sunday.

[HURAKAN]

our forcasters have been saying on the weather channel that Willy may hit the middle section of the western Australia coast on Sunday.

Have they specified the intensity the cyclone would probably have at the moment of landfall?

Because right now it's already Cat. 3 and the future looks promising for the cyclone. I hope in any case of landfall the cyclone should bring the needed rainfall for the area to alleviate the drought.

[AussieMark]

they haven't said intensity but I think it may be significant. Thats my gut feeling.

U heard of our drough have ya.

A lot of Australia has had below average rainfall since 2000 or 2001

[HURAKAN]

they haven't said intensity but I think it may be significant. Thats my gut feeling.

U heard of our drough have ya.

A lot of Australia has had below average rainfall since 2000 or 2001

There is an article in the magazine "WEATHERWISE" that especially talks about the drought in Australia, but I don't remember the issue.

[AussieMark]

The Sydney area is one of the worst ones affected.

The dam that produces 80% of Sydneys water is 42.7% full

[HURAKAN]

11/0225 UTC 16.3S 113.0E T5.0/5.0 WILLY -- South Indian Ocean

GETTING RAPIDLY STRONGER.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0434UTC 11 MARCH 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 960 hPa located at 0400UTC
to within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude sixteen decimal four south [16.4S]
Longitude one hundred and thirteen decimal zero east [113.0E]
and moving southwest at 10 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nautical miles of centre.


FORECAST
Winds 30/45 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell increasing to
45/75 knots and high to very high seas within 50 nautical miles of the centre.
Tropical Cyclone Willy expected to continue to intensify with winds within 50
nautical miles of the centre increasing to 45/95 knots with very high to
phenomenal seas by 0400 UTC 12 March.

At 1600UTC 11 March 17.5 south 111.6 east 950hPa
At 0400UTC 12 March 18.7 south 110.3 east 935hPa

Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 11 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 12:55 pm WST on Friday, 11 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy [Category 3] was located at noon WST near 16.4S
113.0E, that is approximately 630 kilometres north of Exmouth, and was moving
southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as it moves to the southwest
but will not impact the WA coast within the next 48 hours. Large swell waves may
be expected about the western and central Pilbara coast in the next few days.

The next advice will be issued at 7pm WST.

INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES; PRESSURE DOWN, AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING, SIGNS OF FUTURE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION.

[HURAKAN]

TC WILLY CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SW, AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. AT THIS MOMENT IT'S NOT A THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.

[P.K.]

11/1525 UTC 17.8S 111.5E T4.5/5.0 WILLY -- South Indian Ocean

Dvorak rating is down slightly.

[HURAKAN]

TC WILLY CONTINUES TO TRACK SW, WITH A FUTURE TURN TO THE SOUTH, AND THEN PROBABLY TO THE SSE.

[Scorpion]

Wow, looks terrible on the sat. Maybe losing some form?

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1032UTC 12 MARCH 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 960 hPa located at 1000UTC
to within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty decimal two south [20.2S]
Longitude one hundred and nine decimal eight east [109.8E]
and moving southwest at 12 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 150 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Winds 30/45 knots with very rough seas and moderate to swell. Within 40 nautical
miles of the centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles in southern
quadrants, expect winds 50/75 knots, with high to very high seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

At 2200UTC 12 March 21.5 south 109.0 east 960hPa
At 1000UTC 13 March 22.3 south 108.5 east 970hPa

Next warning issued at 1700 UTC 12 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH



WEAKENING CONTINUES WITH WILLY.

[senorpepr]

IDW24000
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 6:45 pm WST on Saturday, 12 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy [Category 3] was located at 6pm WST near 20.2S
109.8E, that is approximately 490 kilometres west north west of Exmouth, and was
moving southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone has reached its peak intensity and is expected to weaken during the
next 24 to 48 hours. It will not impact the WA coast within the next 48 hours,
however large swell waves may be experienced about the western Pilbara coast
this weekend.

The next advice will be issued at 1am WST Sunday.

[HURAKAN]

WILLY, GOING DOWN THE HILL.

[HURAKAN]

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0408UTC 13 MARCH 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 965 hPa located at 0400UTC
to within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty decimal nine south [20.9S]
Longitude one hundred and eight decimal eight east [108.8E]
and moving west southwest at 3 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 130 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Winds 30/45 knots with very rough seas and moderate to swell. Within 45 nautical
miles of the centre, extending to within 75 nautical miles in southern
quadrants, expect winds 50/70 knots, with high to very high seas and moderate
swell.

At 1600UTC 13 March 21.0 south 108.0 east 980hPa
At 0400UTC 14 March 20.7 south 106.7 east 988hPa

Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 13 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH

THERE IS ONLY ONE WORD IN WILLY'S FUTURE: "WEAKENING"

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1029UTC 13 MARCH 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 975 hPa located at 1000UTC to
within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty one decimal two south [21.2S]
Longitude one hundred and eight decimal four east [108.4E]
and moving west southwest at 4 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Winds 30/45 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 40
nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 60 nautical miles in southern
quadrants, expect winds 45/60 knots, with high to very high seas.

At 2200UTC 13 March 21.3 south 107.7 east 985hPa
At 1000UTC 14 March 21.1 south 106.8 east 995hPa

Next warning issued at 1700 UTC 13 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH



WELL, NOTHING MUCH TO SAY, TC WILLY IS LIVING ITS LAST HOURS OF LIFE.