Ideas on next weekends event??

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Jrodd312
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Ideas on next weekends event??

#1 Postby Jrodd312 » Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:39 pm

Anyone?? Im starting to loose faith here in philly. (Sorry Jer) Every meteorolgist here in philly has high temps that day in the 50's. I still have a TON of hope, but i mean i am getting scared that this thing wont happen.
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donsutherland1
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Re: Ideas on next weekends event??

#2 Postby donsutherland1 » Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:50 pm

John,

As I noted in my weekly pattern discussion, "A storm moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast and heading northeastward from there could bring at least some accumulations of snow from Philadelphia to Boston during the 3/17-19 period. Parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could see a significant snowfall."

Unfortunately, at this time, it is too soon for me to argue whether this would be mainly a rainstorm or snowstorm, much less whether the big cities from PHL to BOS would receive that significant (6" or more) snowfall. I do believe each of these cities will see at least some accumulation.

The ECMWF has been trending steadily colder over the past few days. Let's see if this trend continues with the 0z 3/12 run.
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krysof

#3 Postby krysof » Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:59 pm

So many possibilities but eventually Jrodd and Noreaster will agree with me, if a storm does develop it will either

1. Move far offshore or out to sea producing little if any accumulation to the big cities.

2. Temperatures way above freezing and strong March sun producing only a rain event, either light, moderate or heavy for the entire mid-atlantic region except the higher elevations and far north into Northern new england again once more.

3. Or an inbetween scenario, weak to moderate storm with snow to start and changing to rain with a faster changeover for the big cities especially south of NYC.

I don't think this will be an offshore scenario but I do think the temperatures will be way above freezing for all those areas.
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#4 Postby Plower737 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 10:11 am

Sorry, dude's. Winter precip is done for the east coast. Stick a fork in it. It's done.
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krysof

#5 Postby krysof » Sat Mar 12, 2005 10:41 am

I agree. It will still be below average at least 10 degrees
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Re: Ideas on next weekends event??

#6 Postby donsutherland1 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 10:46 am

The Euro's march toward a colder solution continued overnight. By 3/19 0z, the 3/12 0z ECMWF depicts snow from Washignton, DC to Philadelphia. Right now, it's still too soon for me to get into details but the encouraging trend toward a more wintry solution continues.
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#7 Postby Plower737 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 11:06 am

I wish I could believe you don, but the way this season has gone for my area, there has been too much hype and not enough results. There have been more"near" misses then actual events. Its nice to look ahead to see what could happen but after 48 hrs, nothing is set in stone.
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#8 Postby donsutherland1 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 11:09 am

Plower737,

I empathize with you concerning the lack of snow down in DE. At this time, it is too soon for me to speculate on possible accumulations (if any). Things could still change.

I do believe someone on the East Coast will see 6" or more. I just don't know who it will be at this time or even if the major cities will see it. Hopefully, by midweek next week the details will be clearer (and also snowier).
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#9 Postby Plower737 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 11:14 am

Don't get me wrong I would LOVE to have one more go plowable event. But my confidence is no very high. I can't read any of those maps that are posted, or understand phasing, blocking, 50/50 low, etc. but I just have a gut feeling that Delaware is done this year for snow. I hope you prove me wrong.
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#10 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 11:56 am

All I can say is looking at the analogs to the 58', 60', and 84' storms everyting is going according to plan, some one is going to get nailed, It is very early but the threat is growing, please don't believe the "La La Land" GFS, I can't believe that any of us even use this model in the winter it is pathetic
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krysof

#11 Postby krysof » Sat Mar 12, 2005 11:58 am

well snow should be done now, its not February its mid March and spring approaches, I can honestly say that snow is over this season, but looking forward to next season and hurricane season, thunderstorm and tornado seasons getting very active in a month or two.
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#12 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 12:13 pm

Krysof... The snowfall record for PA is only 50 miles northeast of Philadelphia in Morgantown, PA... It's not on a mountain, it's just a small town... It occured March 21st 1958 and there was 54 inches (that's not a typo either) from that storm, so don't tell me it can't snow in March
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#13 Postby Jrodd312 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 12:16 pm

Noreaster_Jer_04 wrote:Krysof... The snowfall record for PA is only 50 miles northeast of Philadelphia in Morgantown, PA... It's not on a mountain, it's just a small town... It occured March 21st 1958 and there was 54 inches (that's not a typo either) from that storm, so don't tell me it can't snow in March
Really krysof put a sock in it. You always say it isnt going to snow and then it does. Like he** ill ever agree with you like you said up top. Im with jer all the way. I do believe now that chances are incrasing. The GFS has no clue what is goin on like Jer said, and like don said the Euro and ECMWF are both trending towards and east coast storm. (Jer the minute you put out that map i immediatley put it as my background on my computer LOL)
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#14 Postby snow_wizzard » Sat Mar 12, 2005 2:49 pm

In my opinion the very deep trough digging into the west is going to greatly hurt the chances of an East Coast snow event. You guys have to admit, it's our turn now. :D
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Guest

#15 Postby Guest » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:06 pm

Yup and the Plains will get a snowstorm or two~
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krysof

#16 Postby krysof » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:22 pm

but it won't affect us and this snow chance, we have other things supporting it
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#17 Postby Guest » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:28 pm

Who are you talking too?
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krysof

#18 Postby krysof » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:34 pm

Jer
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#19 Postby donsutherland1 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 11:27 pm

John,

The 3/12 12z ECMWF was also very encouraging with regard to snow. At this point, there is little compelling reason to argue that Winter 2004-05 has seen its last snows, especially from Philadelphia northward. Even climatology argues against such a proposition.

FWIW, since the pattern changed on February 17, PHL has seen 13.8" snow.
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#20 Postby donsutherland1 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 11:41 pm

Snow_wizzard,

A strongly negative PNA is not always bad for the East when it comes to late-season snowstorms and a negative PNA is the norm for such storms.

• March 1956: Negative 5 days before storm and slightly positive during the storm; rising
• March 1958: Strongly negative 5 days before and during the storm; falling
• March 1960: Negative 5 days before and strongly negative during the storm; falling
• April 1982: Strongly negative 5 days before and during the storm; falling
• March 1993: Weakly negative 5 days before and during the storm; fluctuating
• March-April 1997: Weakly negative 5 days before and during the storm; rising

Key:
Strongly negative: -2.000 or below
Negative: -1.000 to -1.999
Weakly Negative: -0.001 to -0.999
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