Model Support For "March Monster"...

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

We'll start with the EURO (ECMWF)... Which has trended colder on each of its past few runs... I'm really liking this scenerio... It would put the big cites on the fence as far as signifigant snow or rain, just NW it could be a quite a storm... Below the model is what it would mean if it verifys...



Result:



Next We'll go the route of the UKMET, which would be a little more ambitious for the Big Cities... with a slight more eastward angle, it also would have the storm very strong by the time it heads for the coast... Below the model run is it's reslut...



Result:

[img]http://img58.exs.cx/img58/9693/ukmetpossmm18yk.png[img]

Next we'r of to the no, no, no... NOGAPS... which solution is very similar to the UKMET, but perhaps a touch stronger...



Result (same from UKMET):
[img]http://img58.exs.cx/img58/9693/ukmetpossmm18yk.png[img]

Now lets go to everyone's best friend the GFS, this model pushes a very unorginized piece of crap off the SE shore, this is not reality... Anyways there is no result map as it would be sunny here in the Northeast if it were to be correct, keep in mind three runs ago it had a storm up the coast as well...




I'd like to see the UKMET and NOGAPS verify, but honestly the EURO make the most sence, but we will see...

Your comments please...

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Whooops, that got screwed up... the result for the UKMET and NOGaps would be...



Here is the NoGaps, by the way



And the on crack GFS...

[Jrodd312]

Perfect im on the rain/snow line like for the Euro (what a surprise). I hate where i live. I just hope the blue moves a centimeter east then ill be in the blue. I like the no gaps and the umket. Like you said Jer, well see.

[krysof]

ty Jer, it puts me on the fence between heavy snow with the euro and rain, and all heavy snow from the ukmet and nogaps, the gfs looks ridiculous but is it that ridiculous? An out to sea scenario because there is no phasing with the northern jet.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Krysof... I honestly have no idea why the GFS is considered the king of all models, as it seems it's not in touch with reality half the time... the error is in its physics and no one will admit that, but thats what it is, it just doesn't know how to handle certain aspects in regaurds to heat...

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I'm not going to post the images but I did want to mention a few other models...

The JMA (Jappenese)... has a storm cutting to the Lakes, which was the same error teh GFS had a few days ago, impossible though as the block will not allow it

The DGEX (which is a long range ETA, with GFS data) is showing the same thing as the GFS although a touch north...

[krysof]

What would be the time line or this possible storm?

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Thusday night into Friday, perhaps into Saturday if it cuts off, however that looks doubtful at this point, thats what happened with the 58' storm...

[Guest]

ya . a relative in pa. said its 50 degrees there and in D.c with no snow on the ground. and mid 40s in nyc. the true arctic air is in the northern plains the temps are in the single digits and teens in minnesota and north dakota, looks like the plains will get hit hard this upcoming week not everystorm is a monster but thats like thats like that everywhere mets always blow forecasts theres just 80 billion people up there and like 450 total people who live in the plains being "sarcastic" so every storm is hyped up in the east. theres just farmland and uh dirt in the northern centrel and southern plains and no weather coverage. the weathermets could care less if it was 50 below and a blizzard in the plains.they just care what happens in the northeast on accuweather and the morning news and just about every national forecast...............

[Guest]

noreasters are hard to predict i just wish when i used to live in pittsburgh a few yrs. ago i saw the backedge of the snow. pitt is always on the backedge all the heavy snow is always in philly or nyc. moon township in pitt right byt the airport where i lived always was on the back edge of the noreasters but pitt has more lake effect..... Mntexas hockey