Thought this was an interesting long range outlook from the GSP NWS
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER HEIGHTS BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TUESDAY AS TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM
UP TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KEEPS INFLUX OF
COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS FROM STJ
TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. INTERESTING FEATURE
NOTED ON 12Z AND 00Z GFS HAS SMALL SCALE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AN EXISTING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE
IT SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE LEFT PRECIP
TYPES ALL RAINSHOWERS THU/FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS LLVL
THICKNESSES POINT TO MULTIPLE P-TYPES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS.
Greenville-Spartanburg NWS
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Greenville-Spartanburg NWS
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I am willing to bet that the models trend farther north with this system- as they have with 99.9999% of all the other systems this winter season. However, that should not preclude anyone farther north, say Pa, Ny and off course, New England, from getting slammed with a snow storm 3/17 and 3/18.
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- Stormsfury
- Category 5
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I agree that in typical CAD situations, models end up trending south and/or underdoing the strength of the cold. However, for this situation, the CAD parent high is being projected at 1028 mb (by the US models), which is weak AND it is march, with much greater insolation. I will point out that the Euro has a stronger 1033+ mb high.
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looks like it's trending for only the mountains right now at least according to the GSP NWS...
FOLLOWED HPC LEAD BY TRENDING TOWARD ENS MEAN GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY OF THE MDLS. THIS MEANS CHC PRECIP CONTINUING WED NITE
THRU THU NITE AS SFC LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH THEN UP THE COAST. SFC
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS SFC HIGH HOLDS ON THRU SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST BUT MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. COULD BE
SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WED NITE/THU AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. BEST
CHC OF MTN SNOW WILL BE THU NITE WHEN AIR WILL BE COLDEST. OTHERWISE
P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN AIR MASS MODERATES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
FOLLOWED HPC LEAD BY TRENDING TOWARD ENS MEAN GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY OF THE MDLS. THIS MEANS CHC PRECIP CONTINUING WED NITE
THRU THU NITE AS SFC LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH THEN UP THE COAST. SFC
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS SFC HIGH HOLDS ON THRU SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST BUT MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. COULD BE
SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WED NITE/THU AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. BEST
CHC OF MTN SNOW WILL BE THU NITE WHEN AIR WILL BE COLDEST. OTHERWISE
P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN AIR MASS MODERATES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
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interesting
Interesting from the GSP NWS. If the low pulled far enough south could even Columbia see mix of sorts ? Seems it would be pretty tough to accumulate that far south, but whata some of you experts say out there about the extent of the situation ? JSB - go ahead and fire away on it...........I know you can't help it........ 

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oops
oops....here it is...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EST MON MAR 14 2005
NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ002-003-005>009-151000-
ALEXANDER NC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-
CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-ROWAN NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION NC-
YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
348 PM EST MON MAR 14 2005
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. EASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL SEND MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BY THE TIME
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...MOST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS WEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTON TO LENOIR AND
MARION.
ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 2500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE OF A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SIMILARLY...MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET. ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THESE LOCATIONS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...IT WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH COOLING TO SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FARTHER EAST
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...BEGINNING NEAR INTERSTATE 40...AND SPREADING SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SECOND BATCH OF WINTER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TERMS OF THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM...THE DEGREE OF THE COLD
AIR...AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
$$
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EST MON MAR 14 2005
NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ002-003-005>009-151000-
ALEXANDER NC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-
CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-ROWAN NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION NC-
YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
348 PM EST MON MAR 14 2005
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. EASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL SEND MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BY THE TIME
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...MOST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS WEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTON TO LENOIR AND
MARION.
ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 2500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE OF A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SIMILARLY...MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET. ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THESE LOCATIONS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...IT WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH COOLING TO SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FARTHER EAST
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...BEGINNING NEAR INTERSTATE 40...AND SPREADING SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SECOND BATCH OF WINTER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TERMS OF THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM...THE DEGREE OF THE COLD
AIR...AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
$$
14
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There are actually 2 distinct storms. The one you are referring to is the wednesday one, which is mainly southern stream energy. The problem with southern stream energy in mid march (for the southeast), is that there is little upper level dynamics. So, basically, there has to be some source of cold air because the system is not capable of cooling the column enough. Although 850 temps look impressively cold (-5 C RDU, -3 C CLT, +1 C CAE), the lower level (1000-950 mb) thicknesses are going to be as impressively warm. There is a cold high sitting in central canada, but the positioning and advection of cold into the southeast is marginal. Hence, I highly doubt that anyone south of I-40 below 2000 feet will see much accumulating snow. I do think places like Hickory, Morganton, Greensboro, Raleigh and Rocky Mount could see 1-3 inches, mainly on grassy surfaces. Does Columbia have a chance of snow? Yes, at night if the precip falls hard enough.
Also, the friday event looks pretty interesting too for the Carolinas. In fact, that one may give Columbia a better shot at snow.
-DS
Also, the friday event looks pretty interesting too for the Carolinas. In fact, that one may give Columbia a better shot at snow.
-DS
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