"March Monster"... The Plot Thickens

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Noreaster_Jer_04
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:19 am
Location: Reading, PA (65 mi NW of Philly)
Contact:

"March Monster"... The Plot Thickens

#1 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:46 pm

Well... My friends things are looking better than they did last night, some of the models yesterday really wanted to take this thing up towards the Lakes, as I've said many times this just will not happen due to the block, today every model is showing a Coastal solution... Below are some of the models and what they're showing, I really wish I could have posted the Canadian which has a massive storm coming up the coast, but I'm having trouble with it... Out of the models below the DGEX is showing what I think best... This could be quite a storm 4-8"+ for Northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England if this can pan out, the Canadian solution not seen below would bring totals of 12"+ for alot of places...

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Based on all of this I can say that this is the threat zone, it is very early so confidence is low, but we'll see how this goes...

Image
0 likes   

Jrodd312
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:06 pm

#2 Postby Jrodd312 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:52 pm

THATS WHAT IM TALKING ABOUT!!! HELL YES!!! EXCELLENT OVERVIEW JER!!! And is the site going to be updated today or tomorrow?
0 likes   

kmanWX
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 965
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2003 9:48 pm
Location: PHL
Contact:

#3 Postby kmanWX » Sun Mar 13, 2005 2:44 pm

This week will be a very interisting..To watch how this system will devolops...Most are the models are in agreement with this...there is still about 3 days until we know for sure...except some twist in the model forecast by wesdenday it's now cast time...
0 likes   

paul e
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 49
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 9:57 am
Location: White Plains, NY

#4 Postby paul e » Sun Mar 13, 2005 2:58 pm

Im not sure where youre getting your Nogaps data, but take a look at this.. Its a Major miss for almost the entire east coast, while Im really pulling hard for what youre saying, I think the Nogaps has to be yanked as a supportive entity.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=144
Last edited by paul e on Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

krysof

#5 Postby krysof » Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:42 pm

can some areas get 12 inches from this? I'm just asking.
0 likes   

User avatar
Noreaster_Jer_04
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:19 am
Location: Reading, PA (65 mi NW of Philly)
Contact:

#6 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 4:25 pm

Hey Paul... You're right, I must have pulled up and older run or something, either that or the link was bad, but yes according to the NOGaps it would be a miss wide east, way out to sea... Keep in mind this model did show a Plains Snowstorm yesterday, now its way out to sea...

I'm not really a big fan of the Nogaps that much anyway, I'm Euro, UKMET, and CMC kinda guy

Speaking of the CMC, take a look at if you can it's trying to make this basically stall out and just bomb out... It has a 990 low on the NC coast Saturday morning, which is much slower than the other models, it has it crawling up the coast and massive amounts of phasing, it looks like the 58' storm, that dropped over 4 ft of snow to SE PA... While I don't think that will happen, this could be getting very interesing.

The GFS is also falling into line on it's new run, it also shows a storm just two days later of equal strength

12" Krysof, would be tough, but is possible, I'm thinking it will be a widespread 6" snowstorm amounts up to 10", but who knows where... If the Canadian is right those amounts are way too low, if it has its way 1-2 ft would be the norm
0 likes   

krysof

#7 Postby krysof » Sun Mar 13, 2005 4:38 pm

if this storm was massive than I think everyone would be shocked
0 likes   

Jrodd312
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:06 pm

#8 Postby Jrodd312 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 5:05 pm

Jer when is the site going to be updated?
0 likes   

krysof

#9 Postby krysof » Sun Mar 13, 2005 5:27 pm

18z gfs almost suprised me, the storm I believe may be a tad too far offshore or east but the amount of precip the gfs shows is what may happen
0 likes   

User avatar
Noreaster_Jer_04
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:19 am
Location: Reading, PA (65 mi NW of Philly)
Contact:

#10 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 5:45 pm

Wow, the GFS is now forecastin 10-15" over parts of the Mid Atlantic, this is very strange, I don't like the GFS but it seems to be catching on to the idea of my beloved Canadian
0 likes   

paul e
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 49
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 9:57 am
Location: White Plains, NY

#11 Postby paul e » Sun Mar 13, 2005 5:48 pm

Noreaster_Jer_04 wrote:Hey Paul... You're right, I must have pulled up and older run or something, either that or the link was bad, but yes according to the NOGaps it would be a miss wide east, way out to sea... Keep in mind this model did show a Plains Snowstorm yesterday, now its way out to sea...

I'm not really a big fan of the Nogaps that much anyway, I'm Euro, UKMET, and CMC kinda guy

Speaking of the CMC, take a look at if you can it's trying to make this basically stall out and just bomb out... It has a 990 low on the NC coast Saturday morning, which is much slower than the other models, it has it crawling up the coast and massive amounts of phasing, it looks like the 58' storm, that dropped over 4 ft of snow to SE PA... While I don't think that will happen, this could be getting very interesing.

The GFS is also falling into line on it's new run, it also shows a storm just two days later of equal strength

12" Krysof, would be tough, but is possible, I'm thinking it will be a widespread 6" snowstorm amounts up to 10", but who knows where... If the Canadian is right those amounts are way too low, if it has its way 1-2 ft would be the norm


Yea.. the canadian looks like a dream come true.. Moisture laiden monster crawling north northeasterly. The 12z gfs is very strange relative to what the cmc is showing. the Gfs has two events, one on thurs, and one on sunday. The Sunday one is bigger for NY area, and is wetter all around. The cmc seems to be putting all its eggs in this one basket, and is forgetting about the least thurs system.

18z gfs coming out now.. lets see if it keeps the events separate. Oh Man.. its strengthening the lead system, for thurs/fri, giving dc a good dumping, but just coming short of hitting NYC.. Good qpf goes halfway up jersey, and then out to sea. Now, looking at the wkend system, as the thurs / fri system moves off the coast, second system closes of the H5 low over Oklahoma at 126 hrs, fri nite. By 162 hrs, it moves off hatteras out into the atlantic. I think there are a ton of questions for the gfs to answer.. Will there really be two systems, or does the Canadian HECS idea win the day?? IF there are really two, is it the first one which gives nJ a big dumping as shown and up to NYC a tease , and does the second one just please the folks in inland Va, and leave those in dc, philly, and nyc hi and dry? Lots of questions to be answered this week.. Hopefully, we wont have to wait til Thurs morning for the answers!!
0 likes   

krysof

#12 Postby krysof » Sun Mar 13, 2005 6:07 pm

My question to all of you is

"WILL THIS EVENT HAPPEN LATE THIS WEEK"

and Jer if it does happen could you possibly post a snowfall map for this event sometime tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
Noreaster_Jer_04
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:19 am
Location: Reading, PA (65 mi NW of Philly)
Contact:

#13 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 6:24 pm

I don't trust this situation, as is well known I do not trust the GFS either...

I remember Mar 4-6 2001 a little too much, as that storm was supposed to miss the big cities to the south and then it was supposed to nail them with 2-4 ft of snow, the the whole ends up coming together 500 miles north and it nails New England

Add in the fact that everything this year has come further north than expected and its hard for me to say that this will just be a Mid-Atlantic storm even though that is the model concensus at the moment...

That's why my threat zone map is the way it is... I think the axis of heaviest snow will run from just south west of Washington DC and run just west of Philly and then just south of NYC 70 miles on either side of that line
0 likes   

User avatar
Noreaster_Jer_04
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:19 am
Location: Reading, PA (65 mi NW of Philly)
Contact:

#14 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 6:33 pm

Krysof... Confidence level is about the highest it can be for how fa away we are from the storm... For Sure though ??? I'm not ready to make that statement... March snowstorms are weird and do alot of weird things, keep in mid that since weather started being recorded their have only been 3 storms that have dropped more than a foot of snow in Philadelphia

Mar 1889
Mar 1956
Mar 1993

So in theory we're not due, but it almost happened in 2001, we'll have to see... this could be very tricky.

As for an accumulation map... No way, not yet for the above reasons, saying wide spread 6" + is all that I will say for now, is a foot possible... Yes, Is 15" possible... Yes, but I didn't say that yet, lol... This will be a tricky week
0 likes   

krysof

#15 Postby krysof » Sun Mar 13, 2005 6:43 pm

well I certainly remember March 2001, I was so excited when the mets and TWC's paul cocin said 2 feet or more for my area, that storm must of been the most painful disappointment I have ever encountered. We only had a couple of inches that's all. I certaintly respect your predictions with a possible 6+ widespread which may be very conservative but it's good for now, the event is too far away.
0 likes   

Jrodd312
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:06 pm

#16 Postby Jrodd312 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:23 pm

Man krysof this past friday you were saying that this wasnt going to happen and that Jer and I would agree with you. Well it looks like it flipped the other way. :wink:
0 likes   

krysof

#17 Postby krysof » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:25 pm

8-)
0 likes   

Jrodd312
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:06 pm

#18 Postby Jrodd312 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:28 pm

krysof wrote:8-)
LOL
0 likes   

User avatar
Noreaster_Jer_04
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 12:19 am
Location: Reading, PA (65 mi NW of Philly)
Contact:

#19 Postby Noreaster_Jer_04 » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:41 pm

This probably won't happen after I say this but the 10 year old me just wants to so bad... "I Told You So"... LOL

Seriously though there are alot of questions about this thing that needs to be answered, honestly I like it better when the models don't agree with me (The GFS) I mean, right now it will miss us to the south according o the GFS remember that when this whole thing is over... We'll see how bad the model did... Actually that is what I will do I will post todays 18z map on friday as it's snowing everywhere where its not supposed to... Then I'll post that times map and we'll compare just how bad this model is.
0 likes   

DS
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:06 pm
Location: chapel hill, nc

#20 Postby DS » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:43 pm

Nice post JER. Taking a look at the model images you provided, I had a few things in mind:

1. The models are more or less in agreement with the position of the low until after it passes Hatteras. However, they are definitely NOT in agreement with all the low pressures in the midwest and rocky mts. This could be key.

2. Several long term studies of the NAO (including several comments from this message board) reveals that major amplification/ phasing/ bombing out is highly likely when the NAO goes from such low values as it has been recently towards neutrality.

3. Timing. With the march sun, the ideal situation is to get a snowastorm starting shortly after sunset, with major accumulations before sunrise. Although not as fun to watch, this will prevent much snow from melting if the sun was shining through on say, concrete or asphaul.

For now, its just a watch and wait mode though.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests