"March Monster"... The Thesis

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

After getting drunk and reviewing too much stuff to go through, I've decided that I don't know that much about what's going to happen... But I did learn some neat stuff and I will share that now with all of you...

First of all the March 1958 Storm...

This was one weird freaking storm as you will see from the snow totals below, there is two facst that jumps out at me though... Philadelphia recieved 11" and get this the temperature never went below 33, how weird is that ? They almost got a foot of snow and it was never below freezing, I wonder how wet and heavy that snow was... Anywho, you go 50 miles NW and you find snow totals in the 50"+ range are you kidding me ? Over 4 feet ? Let me just go through this one more time, you travel 50 miles and there is over a 40" difference in some spots...

Can this happen again... Why not ? It happened once and it was even later on the calendar than it will be for our storm, also I've come to the realization that if such a situation were to occur the models aren't going to see it anyways...

Here are the snow totals from that storm...


By the way I thought I thought I'd mention the fact that at the time of my writing this no model is showing my storm, I've lost them all to the south and out to sea, The GFS still wants quite a snow event for the Southern Appalacian Mountains, but that's it...

So does that mean this is over ???

No... As there are teleconections in certain parts of the world that argue for this storm to be a reality...

First Ridging in Europe with big trof amplification near 155 west and in far east, along with the fact that the weather maps match the analog from the year above tell me that this isn't over yet...

Next we go to climatolgy... Which is arguing against the storm...

First of all you have this...



So big snowstorms in March are not very popular

Alright folks I think that I've about had it for one night, I was going to make this really long post... But I've realized that I'm way too tired so I will save more for tomorrow...

So where does that leave us, I have no model support except for the DGEX, so what am I going to do, I'm going to put out a first call on a storm that no model is seeing... Maybe I'll learn my lesson on this storm, or maybe i'll out smart these multi million model computers, time will tell...

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Alright so where were we ??? Oh yeah I'm saying there will be a big storm even though no model is showing what I think will happen, and why not I was calling for an event like this two days before the models started showing my beliefs so really I'm just back where I'm started...

Actually though the models even with there horrible looking runs are actually feeding me some more evidence for such a storm... There is pretty good agreement between all models that there will be a storm just off of Florida's Coast (JAX) at the end of this week... Only thing is the models now take the storm east and out, Ironically the furthest model north is the hated GFS, but it too only has Mountain snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic and nada north of DC...

Lets's go back to 1958 for a second, similar situation (very similar infact) Storm system off of Jacksonville and by all rights the storm should have moved out to sea... Part of me wonders what the models would have looked like forecasting that storm back then would they have got it ??? I doubt it... Well instead of going east this is what happened...



I will say again that the upper air pattern in various parts of the world argue for this thing to come up, I honestly don't care what the models are saying at this point... They have performed horribley recently and quite frankley this pattern may just be too complicated for them to figure out...

This storm (if it occurs) will start that ultimate question... Analogs or Computer Models ??? I've laid out some eveidedce based on the former and have lost sll support for the latter.

Or have I ??? The GFS ensemble runs have been interesting in the sence that there is alot of disagreement within the model, there is at least 1 run that thinks there will be 2" liquid equivelent with below freezing cold...

So the fight continues my friends

[Jrodd312]

Man Jer you must have a lot of guts going out on that. I am right with you Jer, but i mean not one local met here is saying it. When will the site be updated?

[krysof]

I told you so! lol

My scenario 2 will work out, I was right again.
I call it quits untill next winter, but I'm looking forward to what's ahead in the next few months and especially hurricane season. I going to Europe July 1st and be back August 22nd hopefully when the hurricane season is in full effect.

[krysof]

What I still don't understand is how models could change so rapidly after several days of consistensy. It only took a day if not less to change the models. Maybe the models have no idea, the low would form a few days from now so maybe there is a slim chance of the storm happening.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Guys... I'm not going to start flip flopping with every run, besides I've come to the realization that if this happens the models are not going to see it... I'm not the only one, there are several senior forecasters that think this should happen, local mets will not say a word until it is obvious...

[Jrodd312]

Guys... I'm not going to start flip flopping with every run, besides I've come to the realization that if this happens the models are not going to see it... I'm not the only one, there are several senior forecasters that think this should happen, local mets will not say a word until it is obvious...

Jer do you think this could be another january 24-25 2000 event (the one on your website)????But of course not widespread snows down to south carolina.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Jrodd...

That is my exact fear, as for updates to the site I can't log on to update it, I will try again soon, but all day it wouldn't let me

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I might have this all wrong though, maybe its the storm on the 20th that will do it... I don't know yet but here are some quotes from senior forecasters from accuweather

"Over the years, blocking patterns have (among other things) been associated with two opposite and yet extreme situations. If one of the shortwaves passing south of the block is fed by some energy rotating southeast around the Canadian vortex, the two systems can phase, or combine, to form a monster storm. The 1958 storm JB has referred to dumped heavy wet snow on the Middle Atlantic states just in time for the spring equinox. I was an 11 year-old in Philadelphia at the time."

-Elliot Abrams

"The subject of this post is the first impulse coming out tonight and tomorrow and then moving off the south Atlantic coast Wednesday. The first of what will be a series of systems, which I still believe will end with snow all the way up the coast to New England and a nor'easter for the mid and north Atlantic states under this block, but the evolution is tricky. I will talk more about that later, but the closest analog now is the March 1958 storm that was about the same time of the year and did feature the escape. "

-Joe Bastardi

"Our next event has me frazzled already. At first I thought this was going to be a one piece storm that comes out that hits with a vengeance and goes away. It now looks like a two piece storm with one initial wave coming out with snow across Virginia again, then the upper low comes through with it Mid-Atlantic. I still think, despite the block across Canada, that the storm will come further north then what the models are showing and that someone is going to get a heck of a snowstorm"

-Henry Margusity

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Make that 4 met's as Joe Sobel has added his agreement with his colegues conclusions

[Jrodd312]

Are all those people talking about the storm this week or the 20th?

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Yes Jrodd, and you will be the first to know the good news... The 18z ETA has started a trend further north

[Jrodd312]

Yes Jrodd, and you will be the first to know the good news... The 18z ETA has started a trend further north

Thanks Jer that makes me feel a little better. Do you still really think this will get up far enough to affect you and I?

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Nothing has changed, everything I said would happen is happening, the only thing I don't have is model support, models that have been doing a horible job as of late... It's true that I've been very depressed since the model flipped last night, but please keep in mind just 24 hours before that some models were forecasting a storm going staight up the Mississippi River now they have it exiting off the Southeast coast, that's only about a 1000 mile change in track and a complete reversal in direction... I said from teh get go even before a model showed this that the models are not to be trusted and many others agree as well... Ultimately time will tell

More updates later this evening

[Jrodd312]

Nothing has changed, everything I said would happen is happening, the only thing I don't have is model support, models that have been doing a horible job as of late... It's true that I've been very depressed since the model flipped last night, but please keep in mind just 24 hours before that some models were forecasting a storm going staight up the Mississippi River now they have it exiting off the Southeast coast, that's only about a 1000 mile change in track and a complete reversal in direction... I said from teh get go even before a model showed this that the models are not to be trusted and many others agree as well... Ultimately time will tell

More updates later this evening

Do you think the models will catch on or do you think that this will be analogs?

[Jrodd312]

Anymore updates jer (I wonder where he is)????

[snow_wizzard]

Put me down for saying this thing is going to be a bust. There is absolutley no support for it. Looking at it from the NW part of the country I am completely unbiased. I often have problems in forecasting my own area, because I let my own wishes enter into it too often. Everyone has got to realize that few things have done what they SHOULD do this winter!

[wxfixer]

Anymore updates jer (I wonder where he is)????

Looking for this storm.