Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #3381 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 12:49 pm

Yes... the 12Z run of the GFS looks VERY nice.

Awesome actually.

And its within 7 days so I am gaining confidence!!

Those who doubt this pattern change are going to be wrong.

TT-SEA · #3382 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 12:58 pm

And the Seattle NWS has started to recognize the pattern change...

THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY IF THE 12Z GFS 515DM LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND 12Z SUN TURNS OUT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF FRI AND SAT JUST SORTA SPINS UP RIGHT THERE...WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING FROM 1015DM 00Z FRI TO A 992MB CENTER NEAR FORKS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. INTERESTING. THE EXTENDED PROGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP AND THIS SOLUTION MAY BE BUNK...BUT IT WOULD BE FITTING IF AFTER A LOVELY EARLY SPRING WE NOW REGRESSED. I HAVE CREATED A SINGLE GRID FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 30PCT BLANKET POPS FOR ALL WRN WA AND CHANCE SHOWERS WITH A LOW SNOW LEVEL AND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THAT IS A GOOD START AND WILL BREAK IT UP TO BLEND WITH THE OTHER OFFICES THIS AFTERNOON

andycottle · #3383 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:28 pm

Good morning all.

Looking at latest 6z and 12z GFS...looks like we have a pretty cool and very showery trough droping down on us from the North by tomorrow morning as a 1000MB low drops through the upper NE corner of Eastern Wa. 850MB winds are from the WSW at 25kts with heights of around 1350M and 500MB vorticity heights in the 534DM range with very gusty winds of 50 to 60+kts out of the West and NW. Main shower focus appears to be from the Central sound and points Northward. Showers linger into the 17th, with a short lived dry period for the 18th and part of the 19th, before we again have more cool and very unsetteled weather for later on in the week and toward the weekend.

-- Andy

TT-SEA · #3384 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:30 pm

We have agreement from the new ECMWF run on a wet, cold weekend with rain and heavy mountain snow.

My confidence is excellent now that we have turned the corner and are heading solidly into a wet pattern!!

Guest · #3385 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:36 pm

Yesss! The 12z continues the trend towards colder and wetter pattern. It could very well continue to trend better as well. By the 0z, we could be getting into some pretty freakin cold weather. It is about time we start evening things out here.

AnthonyC · #3386 Postby **AnthonyC** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:41 pm

Wow, should I be eating my own words?!

Within the past 24 hours, ALL models have done a 180. What's up with this?! The latest GFS has frickin' arctic air over us by day 5. Well, at least we finally return to a wet/colder pattern. I'm still not buying the dramatic change, but as I look out the window right now, it looks like the change is already starting. We had a good stretch. Just sad to see it go.

Anthony

AnthonyC · #3387 Postby **AnthonyC** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:47 pm

Dude, I have to admit that I'm getting excited looking at the latest models!! The next two weeks show alot of possibility ranging from heavy mountain snow, significant lowland rain and possible high wind events. It's time for some exciting weather!!

Anthony

Guest · #3388 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:53 pm

Yeah Anthony this is getting pretty intense. LOL. I think with the trend of the models we could still get some snow. By any means we are going to get significantly colder... Highs in the 40's for sure... MAYBE LOWER... We don't need much to happen to be in the arctic stuff. SNOWFLAKES??????????

TT-SEA · #3389 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:57 pm

Anthony... welcome aboard.

You should have known something was going to happen when I started getting excited last week!! I knew this was going to be the real deal. Its two weeks late but its here now.

Last month I was not just being an a**hole to annoy people. I knew it was too early for this massive pattern shift.

Not anymore.

snow_wizzard · #3390 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 2:02 pm

Brennan...I would say that Whatcom County has a very good chance of seeing some real winter weather out of this. This is close to the time it happened in 2002. I seem to remember that places like Lynden actually got snow drifts from that one.

As a NWS forecaster said earlier in the season...I will be watching the next few runs with bug eyes! :eek:

Guest · #3391 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 2:47 pm

Yeah I am really hoping so about the winter weather. I wouldn't be surprised. As for today, it is not nearly as warm as the past few days and it's really cloudy. I can feel the change already... by tomorrow, things will be in full swing.

Guest · #3392 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 5:55 pm

The first 9 days of the 18z are awesome. It shows snow for places at day 5 with heights down to 516 in extreme northwestern portions of Washington, 850mb temps below 6, and a 993mb low off the north coast. Heights rise after that but thicknesses fall as well as 850mb temps. Thicknesses get as low as about 520 in there with 850mb temps reaching
-9C in northern washington. THIS IS GETTING SOOOO EXCITING... EACH RUN GETS COLDER AND WETTER... THE 0z will be the icing on the cake if it is still trending towards colder and wetter...or SNOWIER... :lol:

R-Dub · #3393 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 5:58 pm

Another awesome day here in the LK Goodwin area!! The low clouds broke up by 11:00AM and its once again a bright sunny day. Cooler though, we are currently at 2:50PM sitting at 52.2 degrees.
As for this major pattern change.........I want it to happen, hope it happens, but even though the GFS did a 180 in favor of this change, the 00z could be 180 the other way once again. I DO trust what TT and snowwiz are saying, but I DO NOT trust the GFS. I will be a believer when I look out my window and see it pouring rain outside, with a temp in the low 40's.
I spent most of today working on the irrigation system at work today, if we don't get rain tomarrow, I will be forced to irrigate everything for the first time this yr on Thursday. Something I normally do in May or June :eek:

Guest · #3394 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 5:58 pm

After the next 7-8 days things go extreme zonal with TONS OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS... I'd say within the next 2 weeks we are going to get just about everything we want/need. Cold weather down here, possible snowflakes in some places... And next week, LOTS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS.... Sorry for those SUN lovers, but your day has passed.

snow_wizzard · #3395 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 6:03 pm

You are so right Brennan! Each run is colder and for a longer time. I had a suspicion last night that the models would continue to delay the breakdown of the block. The block (tremendously negative NAO and AO) continues but it has shifted dramatically westward. Every model was insisting the block would collapse by now about a week ago, and now they put it off for a full week. This thing could hold together for a few more weeks. If so the second half of this month could average 5 or more degrees below normal for us.

My main focus is going to be on how the surface pressure gradients set up, and who may end up being blocked by the Olympics for moisture. This could be a great snow situation for the mountains. They could have nearly constant powder falling for days! The ski areas may have to think about a nice late season opening! I would also say there is a better than 50% chance that the lowlands will see some flakes.

R-Dub · #3396 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 6:10 pm

NCEP agreeing with a wetter pattern, but not colder apperently. They show Temps for the 6-10 day to be Normal, and above normal for the 8-14 day outlooks.

What's up with that?

W13 · #3397 Postby **W13** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 6:11 pm

Well, I must say congrats to TT on his prediction weeks ago on a shift to much more active weather. Looking at the latest model runs, that is exactly what will be happening around here the next few weeks, if not longer.

I can't wait to see some heavy rain, high winds and maybe, just maybe some lowland snow. 8-)

Currently 56 F as of 3:10 PM, quite a change from yesterdays high of 69 F. :wink:

AnthonyC · #3398 Postby **AnthonyC** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 6:46 pm

A change is coming, but how extreme and when are the big questions. Right now, I think we can rule out any lowland snow. Come on...it's the middle/end of March and you just don't get lowland snow that late in the season. But, I still have hopes for a decent windstorm once that zonal flow develops. The mountains REALLY need this weather...right now, Snoqualmie Pass has NO snow...first time there hasn't been any snow at the pass in March EVER!!

I'm getting excited. Today was a nice day, but if it's not going to be perfectly sunny and warm, I do want some weather.

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #3399 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 6:50 pm

I don't know...We have had snow later than this many times. There have been several years with measurable snow in Seattle in the month of April. Keep in mind...We are in an "olden days" setup now!

TT-SEA · #3400 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Mar 15, 2005 8:05 pm

Remember this is ME talking here...

Anything can (and probably will) happen over the next week!!

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