Will Southern CT See Snow in April?

[donsutherland1]

The issue of possible additional later snows for this region arose on another message board. In my view, per ENSO analogs taking into consideration the PDO, QBO, etc., I believe that southern CT might see additional accumulations of snow in April, but probably nothing substantial and perhaps less than an inch. A greater likelihood for at least an inch exists up in Boston, but even that is not assured.

Close ENSO Region Matches:
Boston: Average Snowfall: 1.9”; 6/24 (25%) years with 1” or more; 10/24 (42%) years with more than a trace
New York City: Average Snowfall: 0.7”; 6/24 (25%) years with more than a trace; 16/24 (67%) of years with a trace or more

If one took into consideration excessively snowy January-March periods, the snows typically let up even in Boston in April. Of the 4 seasons that saw 30" or more in January; 15" or more in February; and 10" or more in March, just 1 saw more than an inch in April (1995-96: 7.3"). 1977-78 saw a trace. 1947-48 and 1993-94 saw no accumulations.

In New York City, of the 4 seasons that saw 15" or more snow in January; 15" or more in February, and 5" or more in March, 2 saw accumulations of less than 1" and the other two saw a trace of snow.

In addition, all remains on course for moderation around 3/24 +/- a few days and then the arrival of a sustained positive NAO regime sometime during the first 10 days of April as discussed in another thread.

In short, I believe that southern CT will likely see some additional snow in April, but odds are against anything significant. A more detailed look at the ENSO analogs in combination with a number of the other global indices for DCA to BOS will be provided in the weekly pattern discussion on Friday.

As for the current situation, the Superensemble's "super suppression" idea will triumph this week as the tale of too many shortwaves contributed to weaker and more easily suppressed systems.

Finally, the block is now eroding. As stated in a past weekly pattern discussion, once the NAO goes positive, the prospects for a KU snowstorm will likely be all but finished for Winter 2004-05 even if that reading is not sustained. Looking even farther ahead, sometime during the first 10 days of April, I believe a sustained positive NAO regime will lock into place.

In short, time is running out for a significant snowfall and nothing looks favorable through at least the weekend.