In my opinion there will be no El Nino this season. I know that everything says there should be, but this thing has a mind of it's own now! The Kelvin wave is having no effect on SST anoms. They are dropping in all regions.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ssta_c.gif
Hello to El Nino? SOI falling bigtime,Kelvin Wave spreading
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snow_wizzard
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depotoo wrote:mike - can you explain for the dummy here - will it effect the huuricane season coming up? and if so how? thanks!
Just saw your note...wasn't around the computer much yesterday.
Usually...an El Nino will impede Atlantic development due to the pattern change associated with the warm Pacific sst's...El Nino years tend to bring lots of shear to the Atlantic.
A neutral pattern is not bad or good for development...and cool (Nina) conditions are supposedly conducive for Atlantic development...although there is some reason to believe that a season in transition from Warm to Cool or Warm to Neutral can also lead to active Atlantic seasons in terms of named storms.
There is little if any correlation between ENSO and total landfalls other than what can be explained by increased frequency of the storms themselves...
Hope this helps...
MW
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cycloneye
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Another image of the pacific where it shows the cool pool of water west of southamerica but also the warm area at el nino 4 near the dateline looks to increase somewhat.Let's see if the WWB is strong enough to transport those warm waters eastward or nothing will change that may trigger a more stronger el nino.
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cycloneye
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Here you can see better the different contrasts between the cool waters at el nino 1-2 and the warmer waters at el nino 3-4.
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cycloneye
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It will be very interesting to see in the next 2-3 months how the major cyclones in the Southern Pacific in the past weeks have an effect on the ENSO factor if any as they cause the kelvin waves to expand more eastward.
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AussieMark
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Weekly Tropical Climate Note
at 1300 CST Tuesday 15 March 2005
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
A combination of El Nino-like and neutral-ENSO indicators have persisted since the middle of 2004. The 30-day SOI fell rapidly during February. It has since returned to a slowly rising trend, and at 12 March was -25. The contributing pressure anomalies are +2.8hPa at Darwin and -2.1 at Tahiti. The official monthly SOI for February was -29 and its 5-month running mean centred on December was -10.
El Nino-like indicators are mostly apparent west of about 160W, and include the shift of the west Pacific SST warm pool to the near-equatorial date-line that occurred around the middle of 2004, and less than usual cloudiness with high atmospheric pressure about much of Southeast Asia and far-northern Australia. During January and February very active convection persisted through much of the western to central Pacific. During February, areas east of the dateline were also active, with several intense tropical cyclones forming. Low level westerly wind anomalies have been evident west of this convectively active area. Note that SSTs in the region have cooled slightly in response to persistent cloudiness, rainfall etc, though remain mostly warmer than average. Neutral ENSO indicators are most apparent in the eastern Pacific, and include near-average cloudiness over the central Pacific prior to January, less than average cloudiness over much of the near-equatorial eastern Pacific, and significantly, the east Pacific near-equatorial SST cold tongue has persisted at mostly near average SST. Other indicators typically associated with the state of El Nino-Southern Oscillation are not definitive; for instance the SOI was negative for a sustained period, but mostly within one standard deviation of the long-term mean, apart from the extreme negative excursion of the past few weeks. The 3-month and 5-month running mean values of the SOI had typically been about -6. See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml for a selection of ENSO model predictions, but note that confidence in model results spanning the southern hemisphere autumn is relatively low.
Intra-Seasonal Patterns
Broadscale areas of persistently active convection have formed over the tropical central Indian Ocean during the latter half of each month, since July. On most occasions the convectively active area progressed eastward, consistent with behaviour of active phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation [MJO]. See: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65205.gif. The convective signature of some events was weak over central Darwin RSMC* longitudes, where convection has been less than average since the middle of 2004 [see ENSO discussion above]. The late December event saw strengthening of the north Australian monsoon. The late January event was weak over the Indian Ocean, while an alternate region of enhanced convection persisted over the western and central near-equatorial Pacific. Nonetheless a weak monsoon developed over parts of northern Australia during early February, albeit for just a week or so. During the latter 3-weeks of February, northern Australia experienced a distinct suppressed phase of the MJO.
Around late February there was another increase in convection about the tropical central/eastern Indian Ocean. In early March the monsoon trough over Australian longitudes redeveloped, and tropical cyclones formed either side of the continent. This sequence of events is consistent with another [fairly weak] active phase of the MJO over Australian longitudes. STC Ingrid, which has had a path of about 2500km, crossing over coast in Queensland and the Northern Territory, has again been upgraded to intensity of Category 5 and is currently tracking toward the Kimberley coast in Western Australia. Most convection has been focussed close to the cyclones recently though. Further broadscale development of this monsoon may be possible over the next week, particularly if Ingrid makes landfall, which may yet partly alleviate wet season rainfall deficiencies that exist over much of northern Australia. The next active phase, which may have an influence a week or two into April, will most likely be too late in the wet season to rely on widespread rainfalls, but may produce more localised or short lived events.
at 1300 CST Tuesday 15 March 2005
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
A combination of El Nino-like and neutral-ENSO indicators have persisted since the middle of 2004. The 30-day SOI fell rapidly during February. It has since returned to a slowly rising trend, and at 12 March was -25. The contributing pressure anomalies are +2.8hPa at Darwin and -2.1 at Tahiti. The official monthly SOI for February was -29 and its 5-month running mean centred on December was -10.
El Nino-like indicators are mostly apparent west of about 160W, and include the shift of the west Pacific SST warm pool to the near-equatorial date-line that occurred around the middle of 2004, and less than usual cloudiness with high atmospheric pressure about much of Southeast Asia and far-northern Australia. During January and February very active convection persisted through much of the western to central Pacific. During February, areas east of the dateline were also active, with several intense tropical cyclones forming. Low level westerly wind anomalies have been evident west of this convectively active area. Note that SSTs in the region have cooled slightly in response to persistent cloudiness, rainfall etc, though remain mostly warmer than average. Neutral ENSO indicators are most apparent in the eastern Pacific, and include near-average cloudiness over the central Pacific prior to January, less than average cloudiness over much of the near-equatorial eastern Pacific, and significantly, the east Pacific near-equatorial SST cold tongue has persisted at mostly near average SST. Other indicators typically associated with the state of El Nino-Southern Oscillation are not definitive; for instance the SOI was negative for a sustained period, but mostly within one standard deviation of the long-term mean, apart from the extreme negative excursion of the past few weeks. The 3-month and 5-month running mean values of the SOI had typically been about -6. See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml for a selection of ENSO model predictions, but note that confidence in model results spanning the southern hemisphere autumn is relatively low.
Intra-Seasonal Patterns
Broadscale areas of persistently active convection have formed over the tropical central Indian Ocean during the latter half of each month, since July. On most occasions the convectively active area progressed eastward, consistent with behaviour of active phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation [MJO]. See: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65205.gif. The convective signature of some events was weak over central Darwin RSMC* longitudes, where convection has been less than average since the middle of 2004 [see ENSO discussion above]. The late December event saw strengthening of the north Australian monsoon. The late January event was weak over the Indian Ocean, while an alternate region of enhanced convection persisted over the western and central near-equatorial Pacific. Nonetheless a weak monsoon developed over parts of northern Australia during early February, albeit for just a week or so. During the latter 3-weeks of February, northern Australia experienced a distinct suppressed phase of the MJO.
Around late February there was another increase in convection about the tropical central/eastern Indian Ocean. In early March the monsoon trough over Australian longitudes redeveloped, and tropical cyclones formed either side of the continent. This sequence of events is consistent with another [fairly weak] active phase of the MJO over Australian longitudes. STC Ingrid, which has had a path of about 2500km, crossing over coast in Queensland and the Northern Territory, has again been upgraded to intensity of Category 5 and is currently tracking toward the Kimberley coast in Western Australia. Most convection has been focussed close to the cyclones recently though. Further broadscale development of this monsoon may be possible over the next week, particularly if Ingrid makes landfall, which may yet partly alleviate wet season rainfall deficiencies that exist over much of northern Australia. The next active phase, which may have an influence a week or two into April, will most likely be too late in the wet season to rely on widespread rainfalls, but may produce more localised or short lived events.
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AussieMark
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
Weekly Tropical Climate Note
at 1300 CST Tuesday 15 March 2005
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
A combination of El Nino-like and neutral-ENSO indicators have persisted since the middle of 2004. The 30-day SOI fell rapidly during February. It has since returned to a slowly rising trend, and at 12 March was -25. The contributing pressure anomalies are +2.8hPa at Darwin and -2.1 at Tahiti. The official monthly SOI for February was -29 and its 5-month running mean centred on December was -10.
El Nino-like indicators are mostly apparent west of about 160W, and include the shift of the west Pacific SST warm pool to the near-equatorial date-line that occurred around the middle of 2004, and less than usual cloudiness with high atmospheric pressure about much of Southeast Asia and far-northern Australia. During January and February very active convection persisted through much of the western to central Pacific. During February, areas east of the dateline were also active, with several intense tropical cyclones forming. Low level westerly wind anomalies have been evident west of this convectively active area. Note that SSTs in the region have cooled slightly in response to persistent cloudiness, rainfall etc, though remain mostly warmer than average. Neutral ENSO indicators are most apparent in the eastern Pacific, and include near-average cloudiness over the central Pacific prior to January, less than average cloudiness over much of the near-equatorial eastern Pacific, and significantly, the east Pacific near-equatorial SST cold tongue has persisted at mostly near average SST. Other indicators typically associated with the state of El Nino-Southern Oscillation are not definitive; for instance the SOI was negative for a sustained period, but mostly within one standard deviation of the long-term mean, apart from the extreme negative excursion of the past few weeks. The 3-month and 5-month running mean values of the SOI had typically been about -6. See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml for a selection of ENSO model predictions, but note that confidence in model results spanning the southern hemisphere autumn is relatively low.
Intra-Seasonal Patterns
Broadscale areas of persistently active convection have formed over the tropical central Indian Ocean during the latter half of each month, since July. On most occasions the convectively active area progressed eastward, consistent with behaviour of active phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation [MJO]. See: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65205.gif. The convective signature of some events was weak over central Darwin RSMC* longitudes, where convection has been less than average since the middle of 2004 [see ENSO discussion above]. The late December event saw strengthening of the north Australian monsoon. The late January event was weak over the Indian Ocean, while an alternate region of enhanced convection persisted over the western and central near-equatorial Pacific. Nonetheless a weak monsoon developed over parts of northern Australia during early February, albeit for just a week or so. During the latter 3-weeks of February, northern Australia experienced a distinct suppressed phase of the MJO.
Around late February there was another increase in convection about the tropical central/eastern Indian Ocean. In early March the monsoon trough over Australian longitudes redeveloped, and tropical cyclones formed either side of the continent. This sequence of events is consistent with another [fairly weak] active phase of the MJO over Australian longitudes. STC Ingrid, which has had a path of about 2500km, crossing over coast in Queensland and the Northern Territory, has again been upgraded to intensity of Category 5 and is currently tracking toward the Kimberley coast in Western Australia. Most convection has been focussed close to the cyclones recently though. Further broadscale development of this monsoon may be possible over the next week, particularly if Ingrid makes landfall, which may yet partly alleviate wet season rainfall deficiencies that exist over much of northern Australia. The next active phase, which may have an influence a week or two into April, will most likely be too late in the wet season to rely on widespread rainfalls, but may produce more localised or short lived events.
at 1300 CST Tuesday 15 March 2005
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
A combination of El Nino-like and neutral-ENSO indicators have persisted since the middle of 2004. The 30-day SOI fell rapidly during February. It has since returned to a slowly rising trend, and at 12 March was -25. The contributing pressure anomalies are +2.8hPa at Darwin and -2.1 at Tahiti. The official monthly SOI for February was -29 and its 5-month running mean centred on December was -10.
El Nino-like indicators are mostly apparent west of about 160W, and include the shift of the west Pacific SST warm pool to the near-equatorial date-line that occurred around the middle of 2004, and less than usual cloudiness with high atmospheric pressure about much of Southeast Asia and far-northern Australia. During January and February very active convection persisted through much of the western to central Pacific. During February, areas east of the dateline were also active, with several intense tropical cyclones forming. Low level westerly wind anomalies have been evident west of this convectively active area. Note that SSTs in the region have cooled slightly in response to persistent cloudiness, rainfall etc, though remain mostly warmer than average. Neutral ENSO indicators are most apparent in the eastern Pacific, and include near-average cloudiness over the central Pacific prior to January, less than average cloudiness over much of the near-equatorial eastern Pacific, and significantly, the east Pacific near-equatorial SST cold tongue has persisted at mostly near average SST. Other indicators typically associated with the state of El Nino-Southern Oscillation are not definitive; for instance the SOI was negative for a sustained period, but mostly within one standard deviation of the long-term mean, apart from the extreme negative excursion of the past few weeks. The 3-month and 5-month running mean values of the SOI had typically been about -6. See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml for a selection of ENSO model predictions, but note that confidence in model results spanning the southern hemisphere autumn is relatively low.
Intra-Seasonal Patterns
Broadscale areas of persistently active convection have formed over the tropical central Indian Ocean during the latter half of each month, since July. On most occasions the convectively active area progressed eastward, consistent with behaviour of active phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation [MJO]. See: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65205.gif. The convective signature of some events was weak over central Darwin RSMC* longitudes, where convection has been less than average since the middle of 2004 [see ENSO discussion above]. The late December event saw strengthening of the north Australian monsoon. The late January event was weak over the Indian Ocean, while an alternate region of enhanced convection persisted over the western and central near-equatorial Pacific. Nonetheless a weak monsoon developed over parts of northern Australia during early February, albeit for just a week or so. During the latter 3-weeks of February, northern Australia experienced a distinct suppressed phase of the MJO.
Around late February there was another increase in convection about the tropical central/eastern Indian Ocean. In early March the monsoon trough over Australian longitudes redeveloped, and tropical cyclones formed either side of the continent. This sequence of events is consistent with another [fairly weak] active phase of the MJO over Australian longitudes. STC Ingrid, which has had a path of about 2500km, crossing over coast in Queensland and the Northern Territory, has again been upgraded to intensity of Category 5 and is currently tracking toward the Kimberley coast in Western Australia. Most convection has been focussed close to the cyclones recently though. Further broadscale development of this monsoon may be possible over the next week, particularly if Ingrid makes landfall, which may yet partly alleviate wet season rainfall deficiencies that exist over much of northern Australia. The next active phase, which may have an influence a week or two into April, will most likely be too late in the wet season to rely on widespread rainfalls, but may produce more localised or short lived events.
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