
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 171041 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 330 AM MST THU MAR 17 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS UTAH TODAY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF A FEW DEGREES. THE FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE UTAH BORDER OVERNIGHT. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHC`S OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE TWO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE 2ND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC LIFT...OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL (WEAK AT BEST) WITH THE 1ST SHORTWAVE. THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WORKING... IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MODERATE OROGRAPHICS. THESE SYSTEM MOVE ON BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE SETTING IN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES BY LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE AREA AS INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEARS TO BEGIN BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
Dennis
