Update about ENSO=Neutral thru Hurricane Season 2005

[cycloneye]

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... nical.html

A interesting long discussion about the latest on ENSO that says el nino wont appear when the hurricane season arrives and is at the peak by august and september.

[AussieMark]

This is great news. Maybe now the rainfall in our area and across most southern Australia in particular can get back to normal.

[Scorpion]

Good .

[Brent]

Sweet.

[StormChasr]

I am skeptical. The ocean around FLA is unusually cool. The PAC is unusually warm. Unless something changes in 70 days, well? Who knows?

[Brent]

I am skeptical. The ocean around FLA is unusually cool. The PAC is unusually warm. Unless something changes in 70 days, well? Who knows?

It's MARCH.

[StormChasr]

Yeah, it is MARCH. But I know the weather around here. It isn't usually 43 DEGREES in March, nor has it been at all warm recently, except for a FEW scattered days--abnormally cool since middle of FEB. Even normal winter temps (65-68 degree highs) for this area have been 50's to 60's--about 5-6 degrees LOWER than normal.

[Scorpion]

I agree. This is one of the coolest Feb-Mar's I have seen. Last night it was 49 degrees! Just 2 years ago during this time it was in the low 90's.

[StormChasr]

Yeah, doesn't it follow the 2002-2003 pattern, when both years had abnormally low temps in the Fall-Winter-Spring? Both seasons had active tropics (2003 was very active), but no big hits for Florida of the magnitude of 2004.

[cyclonaut]

It all depends on where the hurricanes are & what kind of weather pattern is in place @ the time the hurricanes are there.Florida has been hit by hurricanes during al types of weather patterns.Florida has been hit following cold winters & following warm winters.In El Nino years,nuetral & La Nina years.I dont think that people should let their guard down because it was 49 degrees last night .In Aug & Sept it will be nowhere near that & I guarantee that cold water your seeing will be bath water in just a little while.

[Scorpion]

Well actually 2003 had very hot temps in March, record breaking. I believe it was in the upper 80's to low 90's at least half the month here. And we didn't get hit that year. So im not sure, but I doubt that winter and early spring temps here correspond to whether we will get hit.

[StormChasr]

Well actually 2003 had very hot temps in March, record breaking. I believe it was in the upper 80's to low 90's at least half the month here. And we didn't get hit that year. So im not sure, but I doubt that winter and early spring temps here correspond to whether we will get hit.

I agree with ya completely Scorp. The only thing I believe is that ppl are underestimating the El Nino. Most individuals are forecasting "neutral," but I believe that the combination of cool Atlantic, and warm Pac will mean that El Nino conditions will be stronger than first thought, bringing a fairly active season to the pac, and less threats for Florida in '05. Just a hunch, watching the water temps, which may well relate to the air temps.

[Andrew92]

It usually gets into the 70s and 80s regularly throughout the summer months in Michigan, with a few days hitting the 90s. Last summer, I don't think we once hit 90 and we struggle to even stay in the 70s.

Last summer was not a warm one, but look at the hurricane season.

I'm no expert, but I refuse to buy any claim that cooler-than-average temps make an inactive hurricane season.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
Av.SOI Av.SOI
----------------------------------------------------------------
19-Feb-2005 1007.04 1008.20 -28.30 -15.20 -8.67
20-Feb-2005 1006.38 1009.20 -36.30 -16.18 -9.04
21-Feb-2005 1007.36 1009.20 -31.60 -17.07 -9.28
22-Feb-2005 1007.34 1010.95 -40.10 -18.21 -9.60
23-Feb-2005 1005.49 1011.45 -51.30 -19.90 -10.12
24-Feb-2005 1003.93 1009.90 -51.40 -21.59 -10.68
25-Feb-2005 1004.33 1009.55 -47.80 -23.14 -11.19
26-Feb-2005 1004.78 1010.90 -52.10 -24.73 -11.63
27-Feb-2005 1005.14 1010.75 -49.70 -26.31 -11.99
28-Feb-2005 1006.45 1009.15 -35.70 -27.44 -12.24
1-Mar-2005 1009.18 1009.30 -20.20 -28.18 -12.32
2-Mar-2005 1011.21 1010.15 -14.60 -28.68 -12.29
3-Mar-2005 1011.99 1010.40 -12.00 -29.16 -12.10
4-Mar-2005 1011.33 1011.20 -19.00 -29.67 -11.89
5-Mar-2005 1011.60 1011.15 -17.50 -29.44 -11.78
6-Mar-2005 1012.21 1010.55 -11.70 -28.83 -11.67
7-Mar-2005 1013.44 1010.35 -4.80 -28.11 -11.61
8-Mar-2005 1013.58 1011.45 -9.40 -27.56 -11.74
9-Mar-2005 1013.61 1011.40 -9.10 -27.06 -11.94
10-Mar-2005 1012.28 1010.50 -11.10 -26.55 -12.21
11-Mar-2005 1010.31 1008.65 -11.70 -26.08 -12.50
12-Mar-2005 1008.91 1007.10 -11.00 -25.34 -12.72
13-Mar-2005 1008.81 1003.80 4.30 -24.06 -12.70
14-Mar-2005 1011.48 1001.70 27.10 -22.15 -12.47
15-Mar-2005 1013.54 1004.65 22.80 -20.62 -12.27
16-Mar-2005 1013.68 1006.60 14.20 -19.75 -12.09
17-Mar-2005 1013.01 1005.25 17.40 -18.74 -11.85
18-Mar-2005 1012.56 1003.70 22.70 -17.23 -11.45
19-Mar-2005 1012.28 1004.20 19.00 -15.80 -11.00
20-Mar-2005 1011.84 1006.70 4.90 -14.82 -10.69

SOI index has gone positive comming up from the very low data in Febuary and this means if it stays that way a less chance for el nino to make an appearance by next summer.

[Wnghs2007]

Yeah, it is MARCH. But I know the weather around here. It isn't usually 43 DEGREES in March, nor has it been at all warm recently, except for a FEW scattered days--abnormally cool since middle of FEB. Even normal winter temps (65-68 degree highs) for this area have been 50's to 60's--about 5-6 degrees LOWER than normal.

yeah well a couple of years ago in 2002 or 2003 it was 47 degrees in August in Daytona. Upwelling did that and widespread fog developed. 43 in march is nothing...Things will change.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I read that article that was posted and I don't see any better chance of neutral conditions vs El Nino conditions. The sub surface is mainly above in 3.4 region and there is a possibilty of El Nino returning but 0% of La Nina coming. So will probably get a la Nina. LOL

[cycloneye]

Blue colors are growing west of South America indicating cooling waters are expanding westward.Looks like the last Kelvin Wave was not strong enough to trigger a el nino event although some warming took place in the last couple of weeks.Looks neutral to me the pacific right now with some warmer anomalys at the dateline but cooler ones at el nino 1-2.As I posted before the SOI is up from the down trend it was in febuary.

[cycloneye]

It all depends on where the hurricanes are & what kind of weather pattern is in place @ the time the hurricanes are there.Florida has been hit by hurricanes during al types of weather patterns.Florida has been hit following cold winters & following warm winters.In El Nino years,nuetral & La Nina years.I dont think that people should let their guard down because it was 49 degrees last night .In Aug & Sept it will be nowhere near that & I guarantee that cold water your seeing will be bath water in just a little while.

Your statement is right on target 100%.

[Scorpion]

Wow, it looks as if the pattern has suddenly reversed. Very cool anomlies occuring now.

[cycloneye]

Wow, it looks as if the pattern has suddenly reversed. Very cool anomlies occuring now.

However the cooling is not at all the el nino areas like el nino 3-4 where that area is still warm.Only el nino 1-2 region is the one that is cooling.What we have to watch in the next few weeks is if that blue area expands westward and if a new kelvin wave warms things up.