MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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CaptinCrunch
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

#1 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:26 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 211343Z - 211515Z

INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO ERN/SRN PORTION WW AND
GENERALLY WEAKENED...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SRN AREA W AUS AND NW SAT...AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH
AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND
RAOBS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE BASED JUST ABOVE SFC IN
SAT-JCT-AUS AREA...WITH LESS OF A MIDLEVEL/CAPE-ROBBING WARM LAYER
THAN FARTHER N. SECONDARY LINE OF TSTMS FROM NEAR DUA SWWD TO
APPROXIMATELY 30 NNE JCT MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SRN PORTION IN TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ARE GREATEST. SFC DRYLINE IS ACCELERATING EWD ACROSS NW
TX...ANALYZED FROM NEAR GAG-FSI TO CLAY COUNTY TX...THEN SWWD TO
ABOUT 20 E JCT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BEHIND
WESTERN CONVECTIVE LINE...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER DRYING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED EWD SHIFT OF
SFC DRYLINE...MITIGATING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION FOR REMAINDER WW TIME FRAME.

Image
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Fri Mar 25, 2005 4:27 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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#2 Postby jeff » Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:30 am

Strong to Severe thunderstorms continue to development within an area
of enhanced convergance along the C TX dry line.

At 800am the dry line extended from W of Fort Worth to near Junction
and then to W of Del Rio. Numerous thunderstorms have develop over C
TX within deep WAA regime and forced ascent on the SE side of the
central plains surface low.

Visible images indicate low level stratus deck is breaking over the
coastal bend and SE TX allowing surface heating. CAPE values of 1500
J/kg are found east of I-35 over most of SE TX. Air mass is rapidly
becoming unstable with moisture advection and heating. with capping
starting to erode.

Southern tail end of the line over SC TX south of KAUS will probably
intensify over the next few hours as it encounters increasing
instability and low level inflow. Shear profiles remain favorbale for
tornadoes with 250 on the helicity scale and near 400 over N TX.
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#3 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:48 am

Some Strong Storms overnight produced small hail across the D/FW area, scattered showers continue across the area as the first line of storms continues to push eastward.

Second upper level wave is expected later this afternoon but most of the Severe weather should be over E.TX and SE OK. after 4pm.
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#4 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Mar 21, 2005 12:13 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX TO THE UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 211657Z - 211730Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX EWD INTO SE TX.

VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS INDICATED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN
VCT AND THE HOU AREA...ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF RICH MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN PORTION
OF WW 055 /IN HAYS COUNTY/ HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY PER
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTING THEY HAVE BECOME MORE ROOTED TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
AROUND SAT EWD INTO SE TX...WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

Image
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#5 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:02 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 212059Z - 212330Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX DURING
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND REGION IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2030Z CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE
VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER 15S DUA SWD TO NEAR ACT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. JTN PROFILER SHOWS STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX ATTM. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE
EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT
AND REMNANT DOWNSTREAM BAND OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF NERN TX. ADDITIONALLY... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG
IN THIS AREA WHICH IS WELL REMOVED FROM SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NWRN OK. ISOLATED WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST
IN ADVANCE OF CONVERGENT AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IF STORMS ARE SUSTAINABLE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. AREAS
OF N-CENTRAL TX FROM JUST EAST OF DAL TO ACT EWD INTO NERN TX WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

Image
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#6 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:04 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO SRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 56...

VALID 212114Z - 212245Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 56
AND SEWD ALONG/E OF DRY LINE.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR ACROSS NWRN OK...ALONG/JUST EAST OF A COLD FRONT SINCE 1930Z.
SURFACE ANALYSES/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A TRIPLE POINT IN ERN
KINGFISHER COUNTY OK...WITH THE DRY LINE EXTENDING SEWD TOWARD TIK
AND THEN SWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER IN GRAYSON COUNTY TX. ALTHOUGH
THE STRONGEST STORMS HAD BEEN LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF WW 56 IN SRN
KS...SIMILAR STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ALONG/E OF
THE DRY LINE AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EWD. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.

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#7 Postby jeff » Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:32 pm

Tornado Watch likely for SE, E TX, W LA, S AR within the next hour as dry line shifts E and strong upper level jet streak punches E

See SPC MCD
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#8 Postby jeff » Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:46 pm

Tornado Watch issued for all of E TX and SE TX into NE TX. Watch is mainly north of I-10.

Nasty supercell WSW of Giddings TX moving E at 30mph.
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#9 Postby jeff » Mon Mar 21, 2005 7:25 pm

Supercells developing from C Harris County TX to SW San Jacinto County TX.

Storm near Spring TX is showing some mid level rotation.

Lonely but intense mesocyclone moving toward Washington Co TX with hail the current threat.

Severe and tornado threat will be increasing across WW 57 for the next several hours. Highest risk extends from Houston to Fort Polk LA.
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#10 Postby jeff » Mon Mar 21, 2005 7:30 pm

Tornado on the ground in E Lamar Co TX.

Seek shelter now
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#11 Postby jeff » Mon Mar 21, 2005 8:33 pm

Long tracked supercell that developed SE of Austin TX now approaching NW Austin Co TX.

Cell has been maintianing good low level inflow and continuing redevelopment as the cell occludes and then refires.

This cell is approaching the west boundary of an instability axis laying across the central zones of SE TX. Damaging hail and tornadoes will be possible as this cell continues slowly E across Austin County TX

Other storms contiue to develop from SE Montgomery Co to near Lukfin. Severe hail is the main threats with these storms.
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#12 Postby jeff » Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:40 am

Dry line finally pushing through SE and E TX this morning about 10 hours behind forecast. Northern part of SE TX was rocked pretty good between mindinght and 400am with severe thunderstorms (mainly hailers). Better late than never I suppose.

Only POSSIBLE tornado report in TX was over Lamar CO where a barn was damaged. Everyone else saw hail including the size of a ping pong balls over Madison Co.

We should have dry weather for the next 2-3 days, before the next active system approaches Friday into the weekend. It appears there may be a severe threat by Saturday over some part of the soutnern plains, followed by unseasonably cold air.
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#13 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 9:12 am

Martin Lisius caught up with the storm in Lamar Co. and got some good video of the small tornado. It was very thin and lasted only 6 min. total time, ground time was even less.

As I got off work yesterday you could see each tower as it was forming to the E and SE of Tarrant Co. winds were 10 to 15 heading into the storms, very pretty pic, you could tell that the upper level wind were pretty strong as the tops were being blown off out ahead of the storms to the NE.
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#14 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 12:27 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 221654Z - 221730Z

Image

NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC.

THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN GA INTO SRN SC
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM
FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND SRN GA...WITH A
SECOND WARM FRONT LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN GA.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL JET. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY INDICATED
OVER MUCH OF ERN GA AND SRN SC SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED ORGANIZED STORMS...DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.
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#15 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 12:29 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 221538Z - 221745Z

Image

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM FRONT
OVER NRN FL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER FAR NRN FL / SRN GA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODIFIED 12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED CAP IS ESSENTIALLY GONE...THE
ONLY DETRIMENT TO RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION BEING POOR LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5-7.5 AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ONCE STORMS REACH PEAK INTENSITY /
ORGANIZATION.

AREA WIND PROFILES INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
TORNADOES...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 100-200 J/KG 0-1KM SRH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SURFACE
BASED UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID / UPPER 70S.
THEREFORE...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME.
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#16 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 2:21 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN AR / NWRN MS / EXTREME SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 221755Z - 221930Z

Image

A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ALONG WARM FRONT NEAR SFC
LOW OVER CENTRAL AR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SERN AR. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AIR MASS OVER FAR
NRN MS AND SWRN TN IS STABLE AS OF 18Z BUT WILL DESTABILIZE GIVEN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION.

GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT...AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE ABOUT 20 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR N OF WARM
FRONT.
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#17 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 2:22 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...64...

VALID 221851Z - 221945Z

Image

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO REPLACE
PORTIONS OF WW 64 ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL TO
SRN GA...GIVEN THAT PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN AL
EWD ACROSS FAR SRN GA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A
TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN THE SWRN GA COUNTIES OF EARLY/MILLER/SEMINOLE
AND A SECOND TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN TIFT COUNTY GA. DEEP LAYER AND
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN WW 64 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
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#18 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 2:59 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66...

VALID 221937Z - 222100Z

Image

THREAT EXISTS FOR STRONG TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SRN GA AND
EXTREME NRN FL. THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AS
WELL.

18Z TLH RAOB IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER IS SOMEWHAT COOL...STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS
FARTHER E WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.

HODOGRAPH IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1 SRH IN EXCESS
OF 200 M2/S2. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 200-300 0-1KM SRH VALUES
IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS WELL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ERN FL
PANHANDLE / NRN FL AND SRN GA. WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AND
SHIFTING EWD...ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN
FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL.
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#19 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:43 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR / NWRN MS / SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68...

VALID 222039Z - 222215Z

Image

STORMS ARE FINALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD
1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN
VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
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#20 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:06 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66...

VALID 222141Z - 222215Z

Image

THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO
REPLACE WW 66.

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN FL...
WHERE AREA VAD WINDS SHOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING
TORNADOES.
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