Snow Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>120-129>133-141-011600-
405 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH TX HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW ADVISORY REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME GEOGRAPHICAL AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BEGINNING
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DECATUR THIS MORNING. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TO ENCOMPASS
THE DFW METROPLEX BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS LAMPASAS...WACO...AND ATHENS BY THE TIME THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND
TO SHERMAN...WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX. UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA FROM LAMPASAS...TO WACO AND ATHENS BY
THE END OF THE EVENT.
Winter Forecast for North Texas
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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CaptinCrunch
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- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005
.DISCUSSION...
...ZONES TO FOLLOW SOON...
RATHER BUSY MORNING AS ONSET OF WINTER WEATHER APPEARS SOONER RATHER
THAN LATER. WE HAVE INTRODUCED THE RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING FOR THE WEST AND INCREASED AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT.
FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS MOST PRECIP WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
COMPLEX FORECAST AS UPPER LOW EJECTING ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE RAIN WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE WEST...THIS
MORNING. THIS RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SNOW IN
THE FAR WEST. BY THIS EVENING...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...THUS HAVE REPLACED
THE WATCH WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF AN EASTLAND...WEATHERFORD...SHERMAN LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ADVISORY AREA BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.
AS WITH MOST WINTER WEATHER EVENTS IN NORTH TEXAS...THE SMALLEST
DEVIATION OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM CAN DRAMATICALLY ALTER
THE EXPECTED OUTCOME. HENCE...WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS
MORNINGS DATA TO SEE IF CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER
TODAY. THUS...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO DALLAS AND BONHAM. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
EASTLAND TO SHERMAN...WITH ONE TO THREE INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS...TO WAXAHACHIE AND EMORY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005
.DISCUSSION...
...ZONES TO FOLLOW SOON...
RATHER BUSY MORNING AS ONSET OF WINTER WEATHER APPEARS SOONER RATHER
THAN LATER. WE HAVE INTRODUCED THE RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING FOR THE WEST AND INCREASED AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT.
FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS MOST PRECIP WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
COMPLEX FORECAST AS UPPER LOW EJECTING ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE RAIN WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE WEST...THIS
MORNING. THIS RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SNOW IN
THE FAR WEST. BY THIS EVENING...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...THUS HAVE REPLACED
THE WATCH WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF AN EASTLAND...WEATHERFORD...SHERMAN LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ADVISORY AREA BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.
AS WITH MOST WINTER WEATHER EVENTS IN NORTH TEXAS...THE SMALLEST
DEVIATION OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM CAN DRAMATICALLY ALTER
THE EXPECTED OUTCOME. HENCE...WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS
MORNINGS DATA TO SEE IF CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER
TODAY. THUS...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO DALLAS AND BONHAM. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
EASTLAND TO SHERMAN...WITH ONE TO THREE INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS...TO WAXAHACHIE AND EMORY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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CaptinCrunch
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- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005
.PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
WILL SOON BE UPDATING ZONES TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PERIOD. NEW MODEL RUNS SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THICKNESS COOLING...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...ON THE 12Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 4500 FT
THICK. IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF ENERGY TO COOL THIS LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION ALL THE WAY OVER TO SNOW. AS A RESULT
...IT NOW APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...I ONLY EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
ADVISORY TO GET ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW. TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER.
SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY...A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE THE ONLY
WINTRY WEATHER TO OCCUR TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANGES MAY BE MADE ON
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005
.PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
WILL SOON BE UPDATING ZONES TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PERIOD. NEW MODEL RUNS SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THICKNESS COOLING...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...ON THE 12Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 4500 FT
THICK. IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF ENERGY TO COOL THIS LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION ALL THE WAY OVER TO SNOW. AS A RESULT
...IT NOW APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...I ONLY EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
ADVISORY TO GET ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW. TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER.
SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY...A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE THE ONLY
WINTRY WEATHER TO OCCUR TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANGES MAY BE MADE ON
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST WED FEB 2 2005
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE ETA/GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGER BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WHILE SEVERAL
WEAKER UPPER SPEED MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN END OF THE SHEARING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL DEVELOP A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT MAINTAINING PLEASANT
WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHORTLY FOLLOWING. GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...WE WILL BEGIN
PRECIPITATION A BIT EARLIER THAN CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST...WITH SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN/THUNDER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT POPS AT THIS TIME.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST WED FEB 2 2005
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE ETA/GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGER BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WHILE SEVERAL
WEAKER UPPER SPEED MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN END OF THE SHEARING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL DEVELOP A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT MAINTAINING PLEASANT
WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHORTLY FOLLOWING. GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...WE WILL BEGIN
PRECIPITATION A BIT EARLIER THAN CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST...WITH SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN/THUNDER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT POPS AT THIS TIME.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2005
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THE RAIN TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY HIGH...EVEN WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH AMOUNTS WOULD RESULT IN RUNOFF THAT MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
SOME AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
AFTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK WHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
NEXT WEEKEND...AGAIN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2005
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THE RAIN TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY HIGH...EVEN WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH AMOUNTS WOULD RESULT IN RUNOFF THAT MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
SOME AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
AFTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK WHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
NEXT WEEKEND...AGAIN.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST THU FEB 10 2005
THICK CI/CS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES
TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THUS...WE
WILL USE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...AS CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO TOP-DOWN
SATURATION OF THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE
ETA/GFS/NGM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FORECASTING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY
ON FRIDAY...AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX PASSES ACROSS THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE STUBBORN RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IT
WILL DEAMPLIFY...BUT STILL RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS TO WARRANT POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
PLACE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND CLOSER
TO STRONGEST AVAILABLE QG FORCING. WE WILL ALSO USE SHOWER
WORDING...AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONVECTIVE THAN
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...AND WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST BY THE
ETA/GFS...WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW A DRYLINE TO QUICKLY BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTAINING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS-LR AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF A SPLIT FLOW BLOCK OFF THE
COAST OF WESTERN CANADA....WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD MIXTURE OF CANADIAN/PACIFIC AIR.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THIS AIRMASS IS STILL IN
QUESTION...QPF GENERATED IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE
THE COLD DOME SEEMS REASONABLE. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST THU FEB 10 2005
THICK CI/CS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES
TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THUS...WE
WILL USE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...AS CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO TOP-DOWN
SATURATION OF THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE
ETA/GFS/NGM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FORECASTING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY
ON FRIDAY...AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX PASSES ACROSS THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE STUBBORN RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IT
WILL DEAMPLIFY...BUT STILL RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS TO WARRANT POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
PLACE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND CLOSER
TO STRONGEST AVAILABLE QG FORCING. WE WILL ALSO USE SHOWER
WORDING...AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONVECTIVE THAN
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...AND WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST BY THE
ETA/GFS...WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW A DRYLINE TO QUICKLY BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTAINING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS-LR AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF A SPLIT FLOW BLOCK OFF THE
COAST OF WESTERN CANADA....WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD MIXTURE OF CANADIAN/PACIFIC AIR.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THIS AIRMASS IS STILL IN
QUESTION...QPF GENERATED IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE
THE COLD DOME SEEMS REASONABLE. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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CaptinCrunch
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- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
NWS FTW TX
02-14-05
SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL...RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY AND
TOMORROW BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO GFS MOS. WHILE 850
TEMPS ARE INCREASING TODAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AS
CENTER OF HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. WOULD PREFER TO SEE NW
850 FLOW...AND MORE SW SURFACE FLOW FOR GOOD WARMING. IN
ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...RESULTING
IN SOME CIRRUS RETURNING TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. BY TOMORROW
WINDS PICK UP...BUT WE EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SPEED OF NEXT COLD
FRONT...BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN BUT NOT MUCH MORE EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN GIVING US
UNSETTLED WEATHER THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
NOW. AS WITH PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
PASSING TO OUR NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. SO FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE
A FEW DAYS OF COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVER NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LIGHT RAIN...AND LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER.
02-14-05
SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL...RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY AND
TOMORROW BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO GFS MOS. WHILE 850
TEMPS ARE INCREASING TODAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AS
CENTER OF HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. WOULD PREFER TO SEE NW
850 FLOW...AND MORE SW SURFACE FLOW FOR GOOD WARMING. IN
ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...RESULTING
IN SOME CIRRUS RETURNING TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. BY TOMORROW
WINDS PICK UP...BUT WE EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SPEED OF NEXT COLD
FRONT...BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN BUT NOT MUCH MORE EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN GIVING US
UNSETTLED WEATHER THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
NOW. AS WITH PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
PASSING TO OUR NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. SO FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE
A FEW DAYS OF COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVER NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LIGHT RAIN...AND LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER.
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CaptinCrunch
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- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT 09Z AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. COOLER TEMPS MID 50S
WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-25 RANGE THIS MORNING THEN 10-20 IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
QUITE COLD OVERNIGHT MID 30S COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
.LONG TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK IN THE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN SLIDE EAST. ISENTROPIC OVER-RUNNING
OF THE COLD DOME SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS
CLOSE-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OPENS UP AND
EJECTS EASTWARD SATURDAY... CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND DEEPENS SUNDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW EXITS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY AND SPREAD OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME PERIOD AS SURFACE DEWPOINT RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S...LI/S FALL
TO AROUND ZERO...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN... AND 125KT 250MB
JET ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT 09Z AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. COOLER TEMPS MID 50S
WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-25 RANGE THIS MORNING THEN 10-20 IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
QUITE COLD OVERNIGHT MID 30S COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
.LONG TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK IN THE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN SLIDE EAST. ISENTROPIC OVER-RUNNING
OF THE COLD DOME SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS
CLOSE-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OPENS UP AND
EJECTS EASTWARD SATURDAY... CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND DEEPENS SUNDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW EXITS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY AND SPREAD OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME PERIOD AS SURFACE DEWPOINT RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S...LI/S FALL
TO AROUND ZERO...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN... AND 125KT 250MB
JET ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005
THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HAS CHANGED POSITIONING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOVING EASTWARD.
MOREOVER...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET OF THE SPLIT FLOW HAS
INTENSIFIED...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WEAKENED. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...THE SWITCH TO A DOMINANT SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW FIRST APPEARED
AT THE HIGHER LEVELS...FROM 30,000 FEET UP. THE 200 AND 250 MB JETS
WERE MUCH STRONGER IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH LAST WEEK...AND NOW THE
MORE POWERFUL JET STREAM FLOW IS ARCING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS. ALSO, THE FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CONVERTING
FROM A CONFLUENT FLOW (FROM WEST TEXAS EASTWARD)...TO A DIFLUENT
FLOW...ONE THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL.
SEVERAL RAIN PERIODS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. THE FIRST OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND (MAINLY AS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER JET
LIFT)...AND THE SECOND IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME (MAINLY
FROM INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL/DRY LINE LIFT). THERE ARE SOME LOW
CHANCE RAIN EVENTS DURING THE LATE WEEK...BUT THERE IS MUCH LESS
CERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ARE THIS WEEKEND AND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GRADUALLY...WE WILL BECOME WARMER AND MORE HUMID...RESULTING IN A
CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. BY LATE WEEK...A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN/
WHERE IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE
BEST CANDIDATES FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY...MAINLY UPWARDS
IN PERIOD 4. WE HAVE COOLED DOWN THE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHEN THE COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WE NOW
ARE MORE IN LINE WITH ADJACENT GRIDS CONCERNING LATE WEEK
TEMPERATURES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005
THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HAS CHANGED POSITIONING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOVING EASTWARD.
MOREOVER...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET OF THE SPLIT FLOW HAS
INTENSIFIED...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WEAKENED. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...THE SWITCH TO A DOMINANT SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW FIRST APPEARED
AT THE HIGHER LEVELS...FROM 30,000 FEET UP. THE 200 AND 250 MB JETS
WERE MUCH STRONGER IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH LAST WEEK...AND NOW THE
MORE POWERFUL JET STREAM FLOW IS ARCING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS. ALSO, THE FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CONVERTING
FROM A CONFLUENT FLOW (FROM WEST TEXAS EASTWARD)...TO A DIFLUENT
FLOW...ONE THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL.
SEVERAL RAIN PERIODS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. THE FIRST OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND (MAINLY AS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER JET
LIFT)...AND THE SECOND IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME (MAINLY
FROM INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL/DRY LINE LIFT). THERE ARE SOME LOW
CHANCE RAIN EVENTS DURING THE LATE WEEK...BUT THERE IS MUCH LESS
CERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ARE THIS WEEKEND AND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GRADUALLY...WE WILL BECOME WARMER AND MORE HUMID...RESULTING IN A
CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. BY LATE WEEK...A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN/
WHERE IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE
BEST CANDIDATES FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY...MAINLY UPWARDS
IN PERIOD 4. WE HAVE COOLED DOWN THE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHEN THE COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WE NOW
ARE MORE IN LINE WITH ADJACENT GRIDS CONCERNING LATE WEEK
TEMPERATURES.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005
.DISCUSSION...
NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT WEAK. EXPECT A WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY UNDER HIGH CLOUDS. FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES ARE SEEING SOME STRATUS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT IN THE
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN COMES BACK SATURDAY...BUT BEST LIFT AND
DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND RAINFALL SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...30 PERCENT...ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS STAY IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...BUT BY TUESDAY WE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH RIDGE SITTING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK FRONT OR TROF
MOVES INTO AREA WEDNESDAY AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN STRONGER FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH. TEMPERATURE WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH THURSDAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE
50S BY WEDNESDAY SO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE. IT/S A BIT
EARLY FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER/MCS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE HOT NOR HUMID ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING BIG...BUT
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL DEVELOPS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005
.DISCUSSION...
NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT WEAK. EXPECT A WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY UNDER HIGH CLOUDS. FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES ARE SEEING SOME STRATUS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT IN THE
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN COMES BACK SATURDAY...BUT BEST LIFT AND
DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND RAINFALL SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...30 PERCENT...ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS STAY IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...BUT BY TUESDAY WE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH RIDGE SITTING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK FRONT OR TROF
MOVES INTO AREA WEDNESDAY AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN STRONGER FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH. TEMPERATURE WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH THURSDAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE
50S BY WEDNESDAY SO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE. IT/S A BIT
EARLY FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER/MCS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE HOT NOR HUMID ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING BIG...BUT
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL DEVELOPS.
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CaptinCrunch
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- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Well it has been fun this past winter, we saw a light snow just before Christmas that really got people in the hoilday spirit, and that was just about it for NTX. January and February was just about avg for the month's as far as temps go and Feb was a little above avg in rainfall. March has been so far below avg in the temps and precip thru the 22nd.
Thanks to all who visited this thread and I hope the info found here helped. I look forward to doing all over again next Fall and Winter, This will be my last post here, you can now check the NTX weather thread in the U.S Weather forum for Spring and Summer Wx info.
HAPPY SPRING to all and I'm glad it's here!!
Christopher,
Thanks to all who visited this thread and I hope the info found here helped. I look forward to doing all over again next Fall and Winter, This will be my last post here, you can now check the NTX weather thread in the U.S Weather forum for Spring and Summer Wx info.
HAPPY SPRING to all and I'm glad it's here!!
Christopher,
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