Just some cloudy skies here and a temp of 45 with DP of 32, humidity 58%, and baro 29.62 and slowly rising a bit. No precip here tonight, or at least for the time being.
-- Andy
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
It looks like I might have been wrong about the really cold nights for tonight and tomorrow night. 
Usually, predicting cold low temps is my absolute strong suit, but this kind of fell apart. All of that really dry air that was in place has been moistened up and it's too cloudy. Oh Well...
No doubt, the big story is the long period of active weather that is going to begin this weekend. I still think that Steven's Pass could have 4 feet of snow (or even more) on the ground by the 5th of April or so. I just checked and they currently have 27 inches. We are going to pull this winter out of the fire at the VERY end this time!
I am almost awestruck by how wide open and strong that zonal flow is going to be next week. An absolute 180 from what we have seen for the entire winter. Very interesting to note that this same pattern is what brought the record snowfall to the Cascades just a few winters ago! My prediction right now is that much of this spring is going to be unusually cold and active. TT...You are right to be excited by this! It will go down as one of the all time great late season pattern shifts for us.
Usually, predicting cold low temps is my absolute strong suit, but this kind of fell apart. All of that really dry air that was in place has been moistened up and it's too cloudy. Oh Well...
No doubt, the big story is the long period of active weather that is going to begin this weekend. I still think that Steven's Pass could have 4 feet of snow (or even more) on the ground by the 5th of April or so. I just checked and they currently have 27 inches. We are going to pull this winter out of the fire at the VERY end this time!
I am almost awestruck by how wide open and strong that zonal flow is going to be next week. An absolute 180 from what we have seen for the entire winter. Very interesting to note that this same pattern is what brought the record snowfall to the Cascades just a few winters ago! My prediction right now is that much of this spring is going to be unusually cold and active. TT...You are right to be excited by this! It will go down as one of the all time great late season pattern shifts for us.
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Morning NWS Seattle discussion still not very impressed with weekend/next week storms.....................
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 230 AM PST THU MAR 24 2005
MODELS STILL INDICATE A RATHER RAINY DAY IN STORE FOR SAT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EVENING AND BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADIER PRECIP. MODELS ALSO HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF SWD INTO OREGON WHERE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HANG IT UP LONGER. A FLOOD OUTLOOK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SOUTHERN SHIFT OF HEAVIER QPF. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT...ADDITIONAL WEAKER FRONTS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE RAIN AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST...BUT HIGHLY SPLIT WHICH WILL PROBABLY SEND THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH INTO OREGON AND CA. THE FLOW MAY CONSOLIDATE A LITTLE MORE BY MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY USHERING SOME STRONGER SYSTEMS. MERCER &&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 230 AM PST THU MAR 24 2005
MODELS STILL INDICATE A RATHER RAINY DAY IN STORE FOR SAT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EVENING AND BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADIER PRECIP. MODELS ALSO HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF SWD INTO OREGON WHERE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HANG IT UP LONGER. A FLOOD OUTLOOK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SOUTHERN SHIFT OF HEAVIER QPF. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT...ADDITIONAL WEAKER FRONTS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE RAIN AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST...BUT HIGHLY SPLIT WHICH WILL PROBABLY SEND THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH INTO OREGON AND CA. THE FLOW MAY CONSOLIDATE A LITTLE MORE BY MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY USHERING SOME STRONGER SYSTEMS. MERCER &&
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Guest
I think we should stop posting the NWS forecasts on here... We know that they aren't impressed with this weekend... And we can all go look at it on our own its not too hard to find.
Yeah it started to get cold last night snow wizz.... It was 35* with no wind here and a really low dew point... I imagine since in the low 20's in Bellingham it was probably mid 20's here... Anyways, 35* and falling with no wind and clouds started showing up. I hate clouds that don't produce anything except moderating temperatures. What a waste.
Yeah it started to get cold last night snow wizz.... It was 35* with no wind here and a really low dew point... I imagine since in the low 20's in Bellingham it was probably mid 20's here... Anyways, 35* and falling with no wind and clouds started showing up. I hate clouds that don't produce anything except moderating temperatures. What a waste.
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Guest
Morning BLH forecast not very impressed with NWS this morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION BRENNAN FORECAST NOT IMPRESSED WITH NWS STORM FORECAST.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A RATHER FREAKIN STORMY WEEKEND BUT NWS CAN'T PULL THEIR HEAD OUT OF A DARK PLACE. NWS IS WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE AND SKEPTICAL 95% OF THE TIME AND CHANGE THEIR MINDS LAST MINUTE BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY KNOW MORE THAN EVERYONE ELSE SO THEY CAN DO WHATEVER THEY WANT. ALSO, THEY ASSUME THAT A SPLIT FLOW IS GOING TO RUIN EVERYTHING LIKE IT HAS THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE WINTER. BUT REALLY, THEY ARE JUST SAYING THAT BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED ALL WINTER AND THEY THINK, WELL JEEZ ITS HAPPENED ALOT THIS WINTER WHY DONT WE JUST ASSUME IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN? HMM WE MAYBE IT COULD CHANGE THIS TIME BUT WE DON'T FEEL LIKE DOING THE RESEARCH AND WHAT NOT TO FIGURE THAT OUT SO WE'LLWAIT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND DO IT. "I THINK WE'LL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE"
MERCER($^&#&^#(**@^$JINKINS!@#!@)@(#%*@#$%@(*%&$&**%
so
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION BRENNAN FORECAST NOT IMPRESSED WITH NWS STORM FORECAST.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A RATHER FREAKIN STORMY WEEKEND BUT NWS CAN'T PULL THEIR HEAD OUT OF A DARK PLACE. NWS IS WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE AND SKEPTICAL 95% OF THE TIME AND CHANGE THEIR MINDS LAST MINUTE BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY KNOW MORE THAN EVERYONE ELSE SO THEY CAN DO WHATEVER THEY WANT. ALSO, THEY ASSUME THAT A SPLIT FLOW IS GOING TO RUIN EVERYTHING LIKE IT HAS THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE WINTER. BUT REALLY, THEY ARE JUST SAYING THAT BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED ALL WINTER AND THEY THINK, WELL JEEZ ITS HAPPENED ALOT THIS WINTER WHY DONT WE JUST ASSUME IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN? HMM WE MAYBE IT COULD CHANGE THIS TIME BUT WE DON'T FEEL LIKE DOING THE RESEARCH AND WHAT NOT TO FIGURE THAT OUT SO WE'LLWAIT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND DO IT. "I THINK WE'LL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE"
MERCER($^&#&^#(**@^$JINKINS!@#!@)@(#%*@#$%@(*%&$&**%
so
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Wow Brennan...That was some mighty fine sarcasm!
I am beginning to get really excited by the latest model runs! The 12z is fabulous. It shows a series of strong cold fronts with associated surface lows slamming into us next week. If this run verifies we will be getting the nastiest weather in the country!
We will be talking fairly heavy rainfall, winds gusting 40 - 50 mph at times, tons of snow in the mountains, and probable thundershowers and hail in the lowlands.
The low at day 7 really bears watching because some very cold air from the Bering Sea will sweep in behind it and lower snow levels to UNSEASONABLY LOW values. In fact this run shows bitterly cold air will build over Alaska and then spill out over the gulf. This could be some of the wildest early spring weather in many years! I would not rule out ANYTHING if this run verifies. This is the type of pattern that has been known to produce tornados and even some wet lowland snow. For example April 1972 had a similar scenario that brought an outbreak of tornados and significant snow to parts of western Washington. Sea - Tac picked up over 2 inches in mid April that year! I am not saying this is likely, but anytime this pattern develops this time of year, people should be watching things very closely...
TT's wild March is about to become reality. I would be surprised if some records of some kind don't fall with this event!
I am beginning to get really excited by the latest model runs! The 12z is fabulous. It shows a series of strong cold fronts with associated surface lows slamming into us next week. If this run verifies we will be getting the nastiest weather in the country!
We will be talking fairly heavy rainfall, winds gusting 40 - 50 mph at times, tons of snow in the mountains, and probable thundershowers and hail in the lowlands.
The low at day 7 really bears watching because some very cold air from the Bering Sea will sweep in behind it and lower snow levels to UNSEASONABLY LOW values. In fact this run shows bitterly cold air will build over Alaska and then spill out over the gulf. This could be some of the wildest early spring weather in many years! I would not rule out ANYTHING if this run verifies. This is the type of pattern that has been known to produce tornados and even some wet lowland snow. For example April 1972 had a similar scenario that brought an outbreak of tornados and significant snow to parts of western Washington. Sea - Tac picked up over 2 inches in mid April that year! I am not saying this is likely, but anytime this pattern develops this time of year, people should be watching things very closely...
TT's wild March is about to become reality. I would be surprised if some records of some kind don't fall with this event!
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Looking the latest GFS this morning....this weekend is still loking like a real soaker and with lots of rain. 24 to 36hr precip totals over the weekend range to near 1.50" for greater Seattle area, with 2.00" or more for Washington coastal inland areas. Western Oregon still appearing to recieve the bulk of the precip. And GFS still going with the theme of a nice zonal flow over the next couple weeks, which will have moderately breezy/windy system slamming Western Wa. And interesting to note....looks rather windy for thursday the 31st, as a 984MB low comes swinging across central Vancouver Island. So if things pan out, should see some pretty strong gusty winds.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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TT-SEA
I agree.
Anything can happen with this type of pattern. It should be a fun couple of weeks.
Unfortunately... most of March has been pretty tame. So my "Wild March" is not going to be very accurate. Maybe a "Wild Late March and Early April"!!
My timing was off. This persistent pattern took much longer to breakdown than I thought.
But... maybe this is better. If the mountains get slammed with tons of snow (and it will happen) won't we better off than if we got slammed in January and it was melting already. We might go into summer with a deeper snowpack than normal since it is coming so late in the season.
Just a thought.
Anything can happen with this type of pattern. It should be a fun couple of weeks.
Unfortunately... most of March has been pretty tame. So my "Wild March" is not going to be very accurate. Maybe a "Wild Late March and Early April"!!
My timing was off. This persistent pattern took much longer to breakdown than I thought.
But... maybe this is better. If the mountains get slammed with tons of snow (and it will happen) won't we better off than if we got slammed in January and it was melting already. We might go into summer with a deeper snowpack than normal since it is coming so late in the season.
Just a thought.
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TT-SEA
Nice to the see the Seattle NWS changing its tune. Its about time they catch up with reality!!
From the 18Z run of the ETA (NAM)... the predicted precipitation for the upcoming weekend (Friday night through Sunday night).
Come on. You guys HAVE to believe now. This is in the "short term" at this point.
From the 18Z run of the ETA (NAM)... the predicted precipitation for the upcoming weekend (Friday night through Sunday night).
Come on. You guys HAVE to believe now. This is in the "short term" at this point.
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TT-SEA
Wow.
Seattle NWS is on board now.
They must have been reading my posts!!
DISCUSSION...THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW IN TIME. THE BROAD MULTI-CENTERED UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS EWD TONIGHT. THEN A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI GIVING THE BEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY A SERIES OF DIFFICULT TO TIME PROGRESSIVE AND COOL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ONE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING LATER MON THRU EARLY TUE AND ANOTHER LATER WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOL AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER FOR THE AREA WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF FEB OR EARLY MAR...AND THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RATHER HIGH QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET...TO BUILD UP A BIT HELPING POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS THIS SUMMER. HEAVY MTN SNOW MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS ON THE HIGHER WASHINGTON PASS...HOWEVER...THAT OPENED UNUSUALLY EARLY THIS YEAR.
Seattle NWS is on board now.
They must have been reading my posts!!
DISCUSSION...THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW IN TIME. THE BROAD MULTI-CENTERED UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS EWD TONIGHT. THEN A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI GIVING THE BEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY A SERIES OF DIFFICULT TO TIME PROGRESSIVE AND COOL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ONE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING LATER MON THRU EARLY TUE AND ANOTHER LATER WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOL AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER FOR THE AREA WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF FEB OR EARLY MAR...AND THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RATHER HIGH QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET...TO BUILD UP A BIT HELPING POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS THIS SUMMER. HEAVY MTN SNOW MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS ON THE HIGHER WASHINGTON PASS...HOWEVER...THAT OPENED UNUSUALLY EARLY THIS YEAR.
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Another sunny day...but it looks like the dry stretch is about to end. One final day tomorrow...and then a definite pattern change.
As for this weekend, nothing extraordinary but a decent sized storm will affect all of the PNW. Moderate rain, moderate wind and moderate snow levels...typical of late March. Hopefully the snow level isn't too high...Stevens Pass could get slammed this weekend.
And then some better news...next week looks awesome for mountain snow. With a progressive zonal flow, expect dry conditions in the main Seattle metro...blame the rain shadow...but plenty of orographic lift and mountain snow. Temperatures will be cooler than average...about 50F.
Two to three weeks of this weather could really reduce the drought situation.
Anthony
As for this weekend, nothing extraordinary but a decent sized storm will affect all of the PNW. Moderate rain, moderate wind and moderate snow levels...typical of late March. Hopefully the snow level isn't too high...Stevens Pass could get slammed this weekend.
And then some better news...next week looks awesome for mountain snow. With a progressive zonal flow, expect dry conditions in the main Seattle metro...blame the rain shadow...but plenty of orographic lift and mountain snow. Temperatures will be cooler than average...about 50F.
Two to three weeks of this weather could really reduce the drought situation.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
R-Dub...It has been a tad puzzling why the days are so warm. The low 850mb temps and low thicknesses would argue for below normal temps. It may be the fact the air is so dry. It is just like a desert...very large diurnal temperature changes.
At any rate...forget about the irrigation for about the next two months, at least. This pattern coming up is so reminscent of early spring in the good ol days! The 18z run is beginning to show that a monster trough may carve out over the eastern Pacific and western US by days 13 - 15. That type of thing could leave us in cold showers for a long time. Before that, zonal flow with a series of cold lows will keep thing wild and wooley. It is incredible how much cold air is progged to pour out over the Gulf of Alaska around day 7. That cold of air over the ocean in the spring can fire up some huge cumulonimbus cells! 
For any one who thinks it's too late for big time snow in the mountains, consider that April 24, 1970 had 25 inches of snow on Stampede Pass. By the way...1970 was one of those years that had warm weather in March and then a BIG change.
Anthony...You are correct that Seattle will be in rain shadow, AT TIMES. There will be other times that the trajecotry will be favorable for Seattle to get nailed too. We will have a nice variety of trajectories over the next two weeks so everyone will have their turn at some fun stuff!
EDIT: In actuality the temps today are only normal...mid 50s. I guess it's just the power of the spring sun that makes it feel so warm.
At any rate...forget about the irrigation for about the next two months, at least. This pattern coming up is so reminscent of early spring in the good ol days!
The 18z run is beginning to show that a monster trough may carve out over the eastern Pacific and western US by days 13 - 15. That type of thing could leave us in cold showers for a long time. Before that, zonal flow with a series of cold lows will keep thing wild and wooley. It is incredible how much cold air is progged to pour out over the Gulf of Alaska around day 7. That cold of air over the ocean in the spring can fire up some huge cumulonimbus cells! For any one who thinks it's too late for big time snow in the mountains, consider that April 24, 1970 had 25 inches of snow on Stampede Pass. By the way...1970 was one of those years that had warm weather in March and then a BIG change.
Anthony...You are correct that Seattle will be in rain shadow, AT TIMES. There will be other times that the trajecotry will be favorable for Seattle to get nailed too. We will have a nice variety of trajectories over the next two weeks so everyone will have their turn at some fun stuff!
EDIT: In actuality the temps today are only normal...mid 50s. I guess it's just the power of the spring sun that makes it feel so warm.
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sad evening as the Huskies loose
An awesome season though! They did a great job
There is quite an odd look to the sky this evening. Looks like some instability in the air!!
Currently 45.4 degrees
In a way I hope you are right Snowwiz, I wouldn't mind not having to worry about irrigation for the next two months seeing how the irrigation system is 30 yrs old now!! Though I hope we get some good weekends for playing on the lake as well!!
An awesome season though! They did a great job
There is quite an odd look to the sky this evening. Looks like some instability in the air!!
Currently 45.4 degrees
In a way I hope you are right Snowwiz, I wouldn't mind not having to worry about irrigation for the next two months seeing how the irrigation system is 30 yrs old now!! Though I hope we get some good weekends for playing on the lake as well!!
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TT-SEA
Rainfall estimates going UP.
Here is the new 00Z run of the ETA (NAM) with predicted precipitation for the upcoming weekend.
R-Dub... you say "in a way I hope you're right". You don't sound like you believe or want this stormy pattern??!!
Look at these rainfall totals for the first of many storms...
Here is the new 00Z run of the ETA (NAM) with predicted precipitation for the upcoming weekend.
R-Dub... you say "in a way I hope you're right". You don't sound like you believe or want this stormy pattern??!!
Look at these rainfall totals for the first of many storms...
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
A rather nice partly cloudy day here with high of 61 and low of 39. Though late this afternoon, we did have a few light sprinkles...but VERY short lived in nature. Any other sprinkles that did fall, fell in the form ov virga...or at least from what I could see this afternoon.
Here`s some pics I took this afternoon here in Woodinville that better shows what I`m mentioning. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/fdb6
-- Andy
Here`s some pics I took this afternoon here in Woodinville that better shows what I`m mentioning. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/fdb6
-- Andy
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