Higher Chance of FL Hurricanes = Sooner Rainy Season Starts

[gatorcane]

You know it's funny how everybody talks about a dry May for FL will indicate better hurricane chances...it all depends on where in FL you are using...that's because anybody along the west coast of FL (specifically west central FL) knows that last year was one of the wettest May's (and summers) in quite sometime. Yes, this is quite the opposite for the East coast...reasons follow. In fact, I had lived in Tampa over 20 years and do not remember a time where the summer time "regime" of afternoon/evening West Coast storms began in mid May and was very consistent day after day for several days straight. It was almost as if we were in mid July. At the time, I distinctly remember predicting that West Central FL was going to have an above average summer rainy season considering that the rainy season doesn't really get into full gear in until late June. In fact what we were seeing was the beginnings of a strong, stubborn Bermuda high building in the Atlantic as early as the beginning of May. Usually May features more rain in the interior and East Coasts of FL due to the lack of southeastly wind flow from a "weak" Bermuda high. Hence, the low rainfall in Southeast and East coast FL (Palm Beach County for example). Strong Southeast breezes means lower rain changes for the east and southeast coasts of FL. Also, we had very strong cold fronts moving down from the north as late as June but they would stall in the north and central parts of the state (due to the Bermuda high position). That further increased the rainfall in early summer. Charley came toward the West coast only because of a combination of a strong Bermuda high AND a strong cold front to the northwest which actually beat out the Bermuda high causing Charley to hit SW FL (usually there is no cold front to the northwest in August so Charley would typically have missed FL all together).

Bottom line: Let's see when the west coast rainy season kicks up this summer. Will it be mid May like last year? The earlier means the Bermuda high may be again be stubborn and strong this summer. The longer the rainy seas waits, the less chance I see of FL getting hit.

[Scorpion]

Seems like the rainy season has already started here. Temps in the mid 80's during the day and convective Tstorms in the afternoon. Gotta see if this holds.

[StormChasr]

No correlation between rain and hurricanes. Theoretically, if it were consistently rainy, it would REDUCE ocean temps. Last year was pretty DRY in May, and we got multiple hits. So, it seems almost contradictory with regard to rain and hurricane potential.

[tropicstorm]

Your statement that no correlation exists between rain and hurricanes is probably very inaccurate. The correlation that you stated about last year being a dry May with multiple hits was much more accurate. There is very high correlation which seems to prove out empirically in many active Florida landfalling years on record that the preceeding springtime weather produced drier than normal conditions, particularly in the month of May. This is almost certainly due to the more westerly shift in the Bermuda High that would dominate the mid-spring weather pattern for high pressure over the Florida peninsula, thus producing little rainfall. This westerly shift in the Bermuda High would then be more likely to steer hurricanes into the Florida peninsula, rather than allow them to move in a more northwesterly direction into say, the Carolinas. It would be more accurate to say that there is probably a very strong correlation between a lack of springtime rains in Florida and landfalling peninsula storms.

[StormChasr]

We have no idea that the Berrmuda high will be in the same position as it was last year. Right now, there are repeated lows, and severe T-storms in much of Florida---thus, there's no way to prognosticate in/re this coming season. If wet= fewer landfalls, then there will be NO lnadfalls, as we're innundated with rain. Frankly, I don't see how we can predict the season now, based on rainfall.

[gatorcane]

Thanks TropicStorm for the supported. Let's see what happens with the Bermuda high this year, but when will we know where it will set up fort for the summer????....how much ridging will we have in the west Atlantic...the Bermuda High position is absolutely key to where hurricanes are most likely going to hit. More E-W ridging will mean scenarios like Andrew, Jean, and Frances impacting East Central and South Florida...less means situations for South/North Carolina like Hugo.

[Scorpion]

We have been recieving alot of rain this month, way more than usual. I don't think this pattern will break any time soon. My call is for a normal to above normal May rainfall average.

[gatorcane]

I don't agree at all with your prediction of a rainy May...things can change within a few days. I predict a very dry May for South Florida...as the Bermuda high that has shown signs of stubornness over the winter in the West Atlantic begins to build and establish itself over FL...look for a fairly rainy April (as cold fronts can still beat out the Bermuda high) followed by a dry month of May (as the Bermuda high begins to win over cold fronts approaching FL)with general E to SE wind patterns (from the Bermuda high) building in early May.....

[rainstorm]

actually, the rain now has nothing to do with what causes the rainy season in florida. if this pattern persisted through sept, florida would be safe from canes

[gatorcane]

the rain now is simply caused by mid-level westerly features such as troughs. If these troughs remained through the summer (which they obviously will not) all hurricanes would be deflected out to sea. By May/June we'll see these features farther north along a more northerly aligned jet stream as the bermuda high builds in the western atlantic and hurricanes ride west along the southern periphery of the high.

[StormChasr]

which they obviously will not)

It is not at all obvious what will prevail in May-September. What we're all saying is that we are getting severe unseasonable rain, and that it is impossible to predict the position of the Bermuda high as it will be in the hurricane season. Any attempts at making a statement as to what will happen are merely conjecture.

[gatorcane]

agreed.