Poll: How Many People Think S. Florida Will Get hit in 2005?

[gatorcane]

My vote: YES:

[gatorcane]

By South Florida I mean West Palm Beach/Ft. Lauderdale/Miami

[Scorpion]

You should make it a poll . I think that S FL will be spared this year, but a threat isn't out of the question.

[Derek Ortt]

maybe a late season cat 1 or TS from the Carib.

Again, look to NC. They were "spared" this year (only had 2 hurricanes within 10 days)

[Scorpion]

IMO the biggest threat this year will be late season from the Caribbean.

[HurricaneBill]

maybe a late season cat 1 or TS from the Carib.

Again, look to NC. They were "spared" this year (only had 2 hurricanes within 10 days)

Or maybe a storm like Erin from 1995 in early August.

[StormChasr]

Boca Chris seems to be the purveyor of doom and gloom. What will happen is anybody's guess. The only conclusion that seems to make sense is Dr. Gray's prediction of a "slightly above average hurricane season, and nothing like 2004."

[Cookiely]

Boca Chris seems to be the purveyor of doom and gloom. What will happen is anybody's guess. The only conclusion that seems to make sense is Dr. Gray's prediction of a "slightly above average hurricane season, and nothing like 2004."

I realize they are treating 2004 as some sort of freak year an not in keeping with the norm. But what happens if the same thing happens this year? Is it still considered an anomaly? Would it be factored into the averages?

[gatorcane]

I don't want to be the gloom and doom guy...but give me reasons why this year will be a quiet year. I'm not quite sure last year was such fluke. Let's keep in mind the hurricane season began getting active again several years ago in 1995 but fortunately the Bermuda high has been in an auspicious position to ensure most hurricanes are "fish" storms that curve into the northern atlantic. If the Bermuda high decides to stay where it was last year at the same strength I would be surprised if FL gets a couple more storms. The same fundamental conditions could easily be there this year and I forsee FL (specifically S FL) getting hit. It's been way too long since Broward/Palm Beach have been nailed.

[Rainband]

it's too early to say anything but if this currnet pattern stays in place then Florida will get a much needed break.

[gatorcane]

what current pattern do you speak of? The current pattern that most people are agreeing to is that FL will be getting hit more frequently over the next 20 years or so...is there another pattern that I don't know about???

[Scorpion]

I think he means just the fact that its been raining so much and there is no Bermuda High out there right now. However, that has little effect on what it will be like 5 months from now.

[StormChasr]

My opinion is that Boca is trolling here---nobody knows what will happen, and hopefully it will be a quiet season for South Florida. I guess he's not an owner of his own home, as -removed- a hit for South Florida would affect his own property values.

[boca]

Just remember I"m Boca and theirs Boca Chris. Same city different people.

[gatorcane]

exactly Boca...you want meet up for a drink sometime to discuss weather?.....probably not that far from you. lol.

[The Big Dog]

My opinion is that Boca is trolling here---nobody knows what will happen, and hopefully it will be a quiet season for South Florida. I guess he's not an owner of his own home, as -removed- a hit for South Florida would affect his own property values.

I don't think he's trolling, but I do sense that he's disappointed that Frances and Jeanne only swiped Boca Raton. There's another one in this thread who's like that, but I won't name him.

[StormChasr]

don't think he's trolling, but I do sense that he's disappointed that Frances and Jeanne only swiped Boca Raton.

Yeah, I hear ya dog. If he's disappointed, I can show him where Charley hit on the exit path over my neighborhood, with winds in excess of 100 mph (NOT GUST-SUSTAINED!!). Around here, many believe that Charley was not a Cat 1 upon exit, but was probably a weak CAt 2. My neighbor still has a blue roof, and she just got the rear of her house grafted back on where an 85 foot tree removed the upstairs.

[Patrick99]

I think there's a real chance S. FL gets hit, each and every year. 2004 was no fluke, nor was 1992. It can happen in an active season, and it can happen in an inactive season.

The real "fluke," IMO, was the east coast of Florida going for so long without any meaningful hurricane activity.

[Huckster]

I know it's fun to speculate during the pre-season where hurricanes might strike, but overall, I think this practice of pinning things down to particular counties or regions of a state is at best borderline voodoo meteorology. The fact is, and I know it's an oft repeated cliche now, is that it only takes one storm. But it is true. There have been many years been a certain storm just happened to be in the right place to hit Florida, and it was the particular synoptic setup at that time that dictated where that storm went. Look at the hurricanes that hit Florida in 1947, 1965, and 1992, just to name a few off the top of my head. Seriously, it does not matter what the heck the weather is doing in March. Rain and cold fronts in March do not equal no hurricanes. I know some are talking about a correlation between dry Mays and Florida hits. I remember correctly, someone mentioned a figure that something like 50 percent of the years with driest Mays brought hurricane hits to Florida. Though it's rainier this year in Florida than it was last year, as far as I can tell, it's still March, so let's touch base on that issue again later once we know when has actually transpired. Also, I don't know much about Florida's rainfall climatology, but what about all the other years when the state was hit? Did they bring dry or wet springs? El Nino is another issue. Since El Nino seemed to be trying to make a return a couple of weeks ago, some were trying to kill off hurricane season. I haven't researched El Nino hurricanes in Florida, but my state, Louisiana, has been hit by some major hurricanes during El Nino years, and I know for a fact that Florida is not immune to storms in El Nino years either. Even the 1997 season, Louisiana still managed to get hit by a weak hurricane. Anyway, not trying to be critical to any one person, just making some points.

[T'Bonz]

By South Florida I mean West Palm Beach/Ft. Lauderdale/Miami

No thanks! The close calls last year were excitement enough for me. Besides, I don't yet have hurricane shutters.