Severe Weather Event...South

[Brent]

The storm is Southern Mississippi is a textbook example of a violent tornado-producer. Anyone in the path of that needs to find the nearest underground shelter. I hope I don't have to deal with that in 6 or 7 hours.

[jeff]

New PDS watches out through the early morning hours Sunday.

Supercells some containing tornadoes continue to develop along northward moving warm front from C MS to S AL.

Meso analysis shows backed low level winds over C MS and C AL with 700mb winds out of the SW at 50kts and 500mb winds out of the WSW at 60-70kts. 850mb low level jet of 30-40kts extends from SE LA into C MS then ENE into WC AL. Low level shear is very favorable for tornadoes from C AL into C MS and south of this line to the Gulf coast. 0-1km helicity values of 200+ can be found from the MS coast to NW FL and then roughly 60-90 miles inland. A secondary area of of high helicity is also noted over N MS and along the surface warm front. The tornado threat will be spreading gradually northward tonight as warm front lifts north ahead of approaching surface low over E LA and SW MS.

Of note is strong nose of upper level jet heading for SE TX and C LA over the next several hours and large scale ascent with main upper trough over WC TX (note new elevated development over SC TX). New storms are already developing over NC LA and a re-development of severe weather across C and SE LA into W MS is likely by midnight or shortly after as large scale acesnt overspreads the moist and unstable warm sector.

[jeff]

Damaging tornadic supercell bearing down on Meridan MS.

Tornado Warning is in effect until 1015pm CST.

This cell has had a history of producing tornadoes and damage across SW and C MS.

Appears the potentail tornado will pass just south of the city over the next 30 minutes based on hook region and cell motion.

Seek shelter now, it is dark and likely rain wrapped so you will not see the tornado.

[hurricanefloyd5]

im in orlando florida so im wondering will i be in a slight or a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow??????????????????????????????

[jeff]

You are currently in the Day 2 slight risk outline.

Your area is far enough south that the main dyanmics will pass to your north where the more severe weahter will be. C FL will probably be on the tail end of the action with either scattered severe storms or an MCS/squall passing to your north with the tail end of the line slowing over NC and C FL.

[hurricanefloyd5]

what are the chances that a tornado watch be issued for me tomorrow and what time if yes???????????

[jeff]

what are the chances that a tornado watch be issued for me tomorrow and what time if yes???????????

For more information visit the below link. A lot depends on what happens tonight to your north over N FL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

thx and jeff e-mail me at hurricanefloyd5@aol.com if anything chances severe weather wise for me here in orlando ok and thx again jeff!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[therock1811]

Looking at that day 2, I'm in the slight risk area. Tomorrow night and Monday very well could be a bad time here.

[southerngale]

I thought our severe weather threat had ended but my weather alert went off a few minutes ago and I'm in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I checked radar and Houston, you're up first. These storms have been getting stronger for a little while. I'll be sleeping when it gets here...if it's a good storm, it might wake me up though.

[jeff]

Powerful upper low and cold front combo moving into LA now spreading deep layer lift across very moist and unstable air mass within the warm sector. Visible images show numerous breaks in the overcast over AL and GA allowing for some surface heating adding to an already unstable airmass. Profiles remain favorable for long tracked tornadoes as SE winds at the surface veer to SW and greatly increase with height.

Strong lifting will spread into MS and AL over the next several hours as the upper low moves E. Thunderstorms will increase in intensity and coverage from coastal MS into N AL and N GA. Additionally W/E warm frontal boundary stalled over SC GA will continue to focus vigorous covective developments through the early afternoon. Very heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches per hour, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible with this activity. Thunderstorms will also likely develop southward into NC FL with afternoon heating.

Many of these areas were hard hit yesterday with hail and excessive rainfall (3-5 inches) and will be hit again today multiple times.

This remains a dangerous weather situation across all of AL, GA, and N FL with the threat for numerous supercells with very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds.

[GulfHills]

I thought our severe weather threat had ended but my weather alert went off a few minutes ago and I'm in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I checked radar and Houston, you're up first. These storms have been getting stronger for a little while. I'll be sleeping when it gets here...if it's a good storm, it might wake me up though.

We're under a tornado watch here in Tallahassee. grrrrr.....have 26 people coming for Easter dinner.

BTW gale, love your avatar!! Brought tears to my eyes again.

[jeff]

Severe thunderstorms some with tornadoes will begin to develop over E MS into W AL and across much of AL and GA into N FL.

Surface cold front currently extends from SW TN through C MS into SE LA clearly dfined by surfac obs. Visible images show numerous breaks over AL ahead of surface boundary with temps. rising into the low to mid 60's and dewpoints in the upper 50's north to 70's near the coast. Supercells have been increasing W and NW of WW 97 over the last hour and a new WW will likely be needed W and N of 97 within the next few hours.

Shear profiles remain favorable for tornadoes and very large hail, and increasing instability across AL due to surface heating will support an increasing severe and tornado threat through the afternoon hours.

Thunderstorms will also likely increase over N FL where air mass is unstable and low level inflow of low to mid 70 degree dewpoints can be found. Thin low cloud/fog bank on visible images across the E Gulf into N FL should burn off within the next few hours allowing strong surface heating and rapid development of strong to severe thunderstorms.

I stress that many locations will be hit more than once today and have already been hit multiple times yesterday.

[Brent]

SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS ALABAMA...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED
SOON.

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ALABAMA...IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE
TROUGH. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED
NORTH OF MOBILE...BUT INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE
FLORENCE/DECATUR AREAS...WHERE DEEPENING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS...WHICH IS ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING FOR ONGOING STORMS.

THOUGH CONVECTIVELY COOLED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
GEORGIA INTO EASTERN ALABAMA WILL PROVIDE EASTERN LIMIT...AT LEAST
NARROW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS IS DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS
ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THIS LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS/AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR DEVELOPING LOW COULD AID
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM.

[brandybugg4180]

I noticed on the spc website that they had put the midlands of sc in the slight risk category this morning down from moderate earlier today. Is there a chance that will change again?

[Brent]

This may be a big one...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST

* AT 1142 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ECLECTIC...OR ABOUT NEAR WETUMPKA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
ECLECTIC BY 1155 AM CST
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KENT BY NOON CST

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.


TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

[PurdueWx80]

These cells in central and eastern AL, particularly the one north-northeast of Montgomery, look nasty. They are remaining discrete, and it is only a matter of time before they drop tornadoes. Storm relatively helicities remain very favorable for strong tornadoes, and as these storms find the warm frontal boundary being strengthened by the wedge in northeastern GA, the risk of tornadoes could increase.

[Brent]

Public report of a funnel cloud with the storm in Elmore County. New Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tallapoosa County(county to my west). Hail over 2 inches possible.

[Brent]

Extension of the Elmore County storm...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DADEVILLE

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1212 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DADEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
DADEVILLE AND JACKSONS' GAP BY 1220 PM CST

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
500 PM CST SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

[PurdueWx80]

Oops...posted warning at the same time as Brent...never mind!