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Winter Weather Discussion

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#3981 Postby Guest » Wed Mar 30, 2005 8:05 pm

Oh and you say arguing with me is not worth it? That's what they all say Anthony...
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#3982 Postby Guest » Wed Mar 30, 2005 8:10 pm

I am Proud to present the 200th page :lol: LOL...
Welcome to a whole new century of pages full of fun wintery type weather in Spring. This is what we have all been waiting for and now it is finally here. Mountain snow and exciting lowland weather. Today was a nice break in the action but I am ready for more. What do you say? Anyone going up to the mountains this weekend? I want to be up there for the next snowstorm... I can't stand coming on here and listening to snow totals piling up and wishing I was up there. So this time I am going to be there. :D

The snow levels look to stay at or below pass level right on through the end of the week, weekend and early next week until we come to a close call around mid next week. It could happen like it did last weekend or close to it where the precip starts as snow and changes to rain and then back to snow... or it could happen like last weekend where it stayed snow the whole entire time which would be a much better solution I would say. It is going to be a close call... But despite that, the mountains should be getting another 1-2 feet of snow by saturday and then another foot or more with the storm on sunday... Pleasent skiing and snowboarding folks.
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andycottle
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#3983 Postby andycottle » Wed Mar 30, 2005 8:58 pm

Hey Randy.....don`t forget to show us your pics from yesterday...;)
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andycottle
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#3984 Postby andycottle » Wed Mar 30, 2005 9:08 pm

Good evening folks! Not too bad of a day here. A partly cloudy day with a high of 57 and low of 38, though did feel a little cool at times when the clouds were covering the sun. -- Andy

PS: currently 50 degrees with partly cloudy skies at 6:15pm.
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#3985 Postby R-Dub » Wed Mar 30, 2005 10:44 pm

Here are my pics from yesterday, they are not great, but they do show how hard it was raining work yesterday!!

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
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AnthonyC
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#3986 Postby AnthonyC » Wed Mar 30, 2005 10:48 pm

Hey Brennan,

Chill dude!! I'm not trying to start any beef with you...I was just making an observation, just as you were. So let's calm down...you're taking this too far. Can't a person want warm, sunny weather? I don't think that's a crime. So just chill dude!! You're blowing this out of proportion.

Anthony
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#3987 Postby W13 » Wed Mar 30, 2005 10:52 pm

Great pictures, Randy. It looks as if it was really coming down out your way. 8-)
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#3988 Postby andycottle » Wed Mar 30, 2005 11:09 pm

Though you cant see the rain too well, you can however tell that it was a very wet afternoon/evening in some areas yesterday. -- Andy
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#3989 Postby andrewr » Wed Mar 30, 2005 11:09 pm

Here is a Local Storm Report, must have gotten very windy where it happened:

03/29/2005 0100 PM

Seattle, King County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


Shingles ripped off shed and tiled roof blown off
carport.
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andycottle
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#3990 Postby andycottle » Wed Mar 30, 2005 11:51 pm

Taking a look at tonights 00z run of the NAM through next 84hrs....tomorrows weather will feature plenty of showers and coolish temps. High 53 with low of 45...per GFS-MOS. Rain reaches the WA coast by late morning and then inland during the early noon hours and continuing through evening time. The cold front comes through sometime late tomorrow evening/night or into early morning hours of friday. Yet another trough comes through over the weekend to keep us in a nearly zonal flow with cool showery and more unsetteled weather. Looks like we stay pretty wet through mid-week next week along with a bit warmer temps. Though it wont be a complete wash out theme, we should get some small breaks in between systems as they come through our area.

-- Andy
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#3991 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Mar 31, 2005 12:44 am

This is my 2 cents worth for the Anthony and Brennan debate...

Anthony...I have a feeling you are going to be really disappointed when we start to really get our big winters again. That is because the periods that produce such winters are normally marked by very cold and nasty springs, and more often than not cool summers. In 1955 the monthly average for April was 44.6, which is roughly the average for the past 10 days. On top of that it was wet, windy, and nasty. There are many similar examples when you look through our cold periods of the past.

As for the Seattle area missing the fun stuff yesterday....I hardly think so! Thunderstorms, hail, and heavy rains were widespread. On top of that, Issaquah actually had an accumulation of frozen pricip!
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invisible
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#3992 Postby invisible » Thu Mar 31, 2005 12:52 am

Andrew-How strong did wind go in a storm?
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snow_wizzard
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#3993 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Mar 31, 2005 1:09 am

The latest GFS and Canadian seem to show a parade of cold troughs for at least the next week! The GFS is trying to hint at what might be 3 or 4 days of realtivley dry and warm weather somewhere in the 8 - 13 day period, but I am not convinced yet.

There is some pretty good news for those of that live in SE King County! The trajectory of the jetstream, even behind the cold fronts, is supposed to remain W or WSW. That trajectory highly favors the most exciting weather, such as thundershowers and hail to be south of Seattle. With a WSW flow the moisture banks up along the southern slopes of the Olympics and then the line of enhanced showers usually streams into southern King County. In the five years I lived in Covington, I have seen some really awsome hail and thunderhsowers here! So, it's not always in the C zone. I still remember the one half inch of graupel we got in mid May a few years ago. The ground was white and the late afternoon temp was 41 degrees! As you might have guessed this setup also favors TT's area. He gets it no matter what. :(

The latest ETA show 850mb temps plunging to -6C again on Friday night. That is just as cold as the airmass that caused the frozen precip on Tuesday afternoon and evening. No matter how you slice it, the ski area operators will not be disappointed that they decided to open for this weekend. It should be prime up there on Saturday!
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#3994 Postby andycottle » Thu Mar 31, 2005 1:55 am

Here`s a look at the short term weather as shown by the graphic below. Looks like winds are pretty strong out of the SW at 800 and 700mb. Though if we get any thunder showers again for real late friday night into wee early hours of saturday....it appears that instability may not be all that great and maybe marginal at best. -- Andy

Image
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TT-SEA

#3995 Postby TT-SEA » Thu Mar 31, 2005 2:22 am

snow_wizzard wrote: As you might have guessed this setup also favors TT's area. He gets it no matter what. :(



Yep... North Bend is a great place for weather lovers!!
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#3996 Postby Guest » Thu Mar 31, 2005 10:15 am

Whatever Anthony... I don't think I'm blowing anything out of proportion... I'm not starting Balance, Eyes, Elbow in, Follow through (BEEF) with you either... It would help your three-point shot though.

I wasn't blowing things out of proportion... Just typing.
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#3997 Postby Guest » Thu Mar 31, 2005 10:19 am

Well it's starting to get a LITTLE stormy here. The winds are picking up and the rain is about here. Let the storm begin... Snowing at Mount Baker already :-)
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#3998 Postby gunner1551 » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:17 am

Winter isnt quiting just yet up here is southern bc. the base right now is at 237 cm or 93 inches. the ski hill should stay up in for at least another month maybe more. as always depends on the temps up in the mountains and radational cooling.

Below are some really cool pics that were taken in March pics 4-6 are the best!

http://www.bigwhite.com/photo_showPhotoGallery.html
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snow_wizzard
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#3999 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Mar 31, 2005 12:35 pm

TT...When I move to Palmer it will be interesting to compare notes, to see who gets the best weather! I would guess it will be close in many cases.

Gunner...Those are fabulous pix! That is amazingly high quality snow for this late in the season, and MUCH more is on the way.

I cannot wait for things to get rolling again! The latest GFS shows we will almost constantly be under a strong W to WSW flow with cold 850mb temps, and low heights for at least the next 10 days. It has trended deeper on the troughs for next week, and given up the idea of a break. In fact, it looks like a full latitude trough may carve out over us around day 10. That could bring the temps well below normal, and produce more instability!
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#4000 Postby andycottle » Thu Mar 31, 2005 12:49 pm

Good morning folks. Viewing this mornings latest 6z and 12z GFS....our cool and unsetteled weather continues through this weekend and well into the work week as a series of very cool upper level troughs enter our area roughly every day or so. However, with the systems riding on a 130+ knot jet, the breaks will pretty short lived. But frist half of next week shouldn`t be too rainy as the jet will be directed to our south and heading into Oregon. And for the second half, that`s when we get back in on the action and jet stream being more aimed at the PNW. In the extened, looks like a small ridge of high pressure may try and build along the WA, OR coast to give us much warmer and nicer weather as 850mb temps appearing to be +9C to +12C and 500mb heights near 570DM. Ensemble model also tring to hint at high pressure in the longer range outlook.

-- Andy
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