Severe Threat....TX to MS

#21 Postby **jeff** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:02 pm

Severe thunderstorms moving into SE TX and much of E TX ahead of strong cold front/ dry line. Cell just west of College Station is very nasty looking and producing very large hail.

Low level inflow may be increasing just a little bit ahead of the broken line from HOU to VCT. Cells have been maintaining some degree of organization and intensity as they move east. Strong NW winds may help keep enough convergence through the late evening to keep storms alive into SE TX although they will be fighting an increasing cap as they move ESE.

Storms should also increase across the C and E parts of WW 115 as deep layer lift and cold pool moves into the WW area. Tornado threat may increase over SW into W and C LA later this evening as storms encounter greater low level moisture and slightly more backed low level winds north of old outflow boundary from earlier today.

#22 Postby **jeff** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:29 pm

New WW will be issued S of WW115 soon. Long tracked supercells approaching SE TX with very large hail and damaging winds can be expected.

This is a serious hail situation.

sunny · #23 Postby **sunny** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:34 pm

They have that "crawl" on the bottom of the tv about the severe storms expected here.

JenBayles · #24 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:35 pm

I hope enough of it holds together to get some rain in Houston. I've already started the watering season this week. Last system that went through pretty much laughed at us, so bring it on!

#25 Postby **jeff** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:52 pm

JenBayles wrote:I hope enough of it holds together to get some rain in Houston. I've already started the watering season this week. Last system that went through pretty much laughed at us, so bring it on!

Evening KLCH sounding showing a very weak capping inversion remains, but it is very much weaker than earlier today. As low level jet increases and low level inflow increase, severe thunderstorms should continue to move into SE TX and should remain intact.

Cells west of KHOU appear to be developing into a small scale bow echo which will help increase meso scale pressure falls and low level inflow.

KatDaddy · #26 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:52 pm

BAMMMMM!

Houston-Galveston now in a watch. We have been very lucky the last few weeks with severe weather being much further E.

Jeff your concern was correct and precise as always.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL
400 AM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...WW 116...WW 117...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL TX WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO SE TX. THE SUPERCELL AND BOW
STRUCTURES WILL BE MAINTAINED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SW LA WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

southerngale · #27 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 9:54 pm

Severe thunderstorm watch just issued here. Some of the storms look pretty strong now so my guess is they'll weaken some before they get here. Just a guess!

#28 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:46 pm

The southern end of the line disappated before it got to Houston.

PTrackerLA · #29 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:00 am

Looks like most of the activity will remain north of us tonight, unless more convection develops to our south and east. This is just like the last system which skipped us as well...if this continues we might be talking dry spell/drought again like we have for the last 3 or 4 springs

.

#30 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:11 am

Well I spoke too soon. The southern end has reintensified and is a strong storm(I don't think anything severe)is now about 5 miles to my west.

Yankeegirl · #31 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:38 am

We had a pretty impressive looking line, but all it was, was a downpour that lasted 10 seconds... I am truely dissapointed!!! :roll:

#32 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 1:36 am

I didn't even hear it rain when it happened. :roll:

Shoshana · #33 Postby **Shoshana** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:12 am

Sheesh... hail yet again with that thunderstorm yesterday evening. Didn't get our house but fell to our north and just west of our neighborhood.

'shana

JenBayles · #34 Postby **JenBayles** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 8:26 am

vbhoutex wrote:I didn't even hear it rain when it happened.

Drat! Foiled again! :lol:

Guess I'll be unwinding the garden hoses again this weekend - after raking up all the leaves and oak flowers that is. The wind has got tree trash raining all over everything - including our pool. Gonna take at least 2 hours to get all that crap cleaned out. <sigh>

sunny · #35 Postby **sunny** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 8:28 am

This just in from wwltv.com:

A severe weather threat is in effect for Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parishes. The threat may increase later this morning.

Johnny · #36 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:51 am

Yep, just a sprinkle in Conroe that lasted a minute or two.

southerngale · #37 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:08 pm

southerngale wrote:Severe thunderstorm watch just issued here. Some of the storms look pretty strong now so my guess is they'll weaken some before they get here. Just a guess!

Well, I was right. I heard some thunder from far away for a little while but nothing made it here. Didn't even get a drop!

Severe Threat....TX to MS

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