Pacific Northwest Weather

Guest · #4101 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:49 pm

W13... yeah me and a couple of friends will just be up exploring as well... We will probably be building some snowtunnels and what not since the snow is going to be so AMAZINGLY DEEP up there. I want to sled by i don't know how possible that will be... Maybe down the roads LOL

Guest · #4102 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:06 pm

Very Quiet on here today for the amount of weather we got going on

AnthonyC · #4103 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:35 pm

Where is everyone?! lol.

Pretty quiet day...cloudy with mild conditions. A moderate cold front passes through tonight, so expect rainfall to increase. This is not a big snowfall producer for the mountains, but with an easterly flow through the passes and weak westerly flow behind the front, expect 4-8 inches...except Mount Baker where another 1-2 feet could fall.

After that, latest GFS models are back to a wetter solution. But temperatures will be milder than the past week, so snow levels should average around 4k...good for Stevens, bad for Snoqualmie.

Anthony

Guest · #4104 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:45 pm

http://img156.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img156& ... newinc.jpg

Mount Baker at it's best... i think this is thursday or friday morning

andycottle · #4105 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 9:32 pm

Like some of us in the working field....I worked today and work again tomorrow and Monday, but will be off Tuesday and Wednesday.....that if I don`t get called in.

OK, back to weather. A mostly cloudy to overcast day here, but with a little filtered sun at times, and even a few light showers. My high today was 57 with a low of 39. so far precip has been non measureable.
-- Andy

andycottle · #4106 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 9:34 pm

*Brennan* wrote:http://img156.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img156&image=mountbakerapril1st200517newinc.jpg

Mount Baker at it's best... i think this is thursday or friday morning

Great pic, Brennan! And Wow....that is A LOT of snow! - -Andy

andycottle · #4107 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 9:42 pm

Ahhh Ha! Looks like Seattle NWS is also going with the idea of thunder showers/storms tomorrow afternoon. Break out the cameras if you have them!

Here`s a litte sinpit from this afternoons AFD. -- Andy

ON SUN...COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WILL LIKELY BE MET...PLUS MODELS DEVELOPS WEAK CAPE AND -1 TO -2 LI`S ACROSS WRN WA. THIS BODES WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH SMALL HAIL MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY.[/b]

andycottle · #4108 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 10:44 pm

Viewing this evening 12z and 18z GFS, the cold front is timed to come through our area by early/late tomorrow morning. So during this time, expect moderate to steady rains until the passage of the front exits our region in which then we will see scattered showers, breezy winds of 15kts or more, and sunbreaks. How ever, after the front passes by, airmass becomes moderately unstabel and 850MB temps drop near -4C per MM5 model. MM5 also showing CAPE values of 100 to 200 J/KG`s. And Lifted index is looking even better than this morning, as the AVN and NGM models have them anywhere from -2 to -4.

Last visable satellite images showing plenty of shower activity behind the front, with a nice little convective short wave of enery almost directly behind the front per infered satellite imagery. Case in point....that mini short wave should be the main focus point of the thunder showers/storms early tomorrow afternoon as 500MB temps plunge to -30C with WSW winds of 20 to 30kts and heights of 534DM.

As for the work week and into the weekend....expect our cool and very unsetteled weather to continue and weather systems coming in about every day and a half or so. And for the 6th/7th time frame....a cold front and or stationary front looks to stall on us to give Western WA plenty of benifical rains.

-- Andy

andycottle · #4109 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 10:46 pm

Here`s the min short wave that I mentioned about. As you can see, it`s right behind the weather system. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... _common+12

R-Dub · #4110 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 10:53 pm

Not a bad day at all today, rain didn't start in until about 5:00PM and it didn't last very long. Was out walking the dogs, and mowing the lawn, was a pleasant day!

Currently its mostly cloudy with a temp of 43.0 degrees.

andycottle · #4111 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:54 pm

Hey guess what. My rain gage finally reached .04" with in the last few minutes. So that will be my total for today. -- Andy

TT-SEA · #4112 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 1:09 am

Don't forget to "spring ahead" tonight.

Get used to late sunsets and waiting one extra hour for the latest models!!

Speaking of which... the latest GFS shows the active pattern continuing reversing the trand of last night's models to severly split the flow.

Good news for active weather lovers.

andycottle · #4113 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 1:16 am

Yep...thanks Tim. Will set my watches ahead one hour, and then it`s off to bed for me. Good night all!:)

snow_wizzard · #4114 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 2:17 am

Andy...your analysis and forecasts have gotten really good as of late! Good work!

The shower band that Andy has been speaking of tomorrow is starting to look REALLY impressive! A well defined comma shaped band like that could indicate the potential for a period of borderline severe weather, when it moves through tomorrow! I would certainly say that thundershowers and hail are in the likely category now. The trajectory of the flow will be favorable for the most exciting activity to be in King and Pierce Counties.

snow_wizzard · #4115 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 2:35 am

Yes indeed! The new GFS looks wonderful for at least the next 10 days. Conitnued cool and unsettled. I am betting on some very interesting weather as that deep cold trough digs in for the 8 - 10 day period. Certainly a lot of potential for hail and even graupel. It goes without saying that the mountains will continue to get more precious snowfall! The setup for the 10 - 12 day period could spell some record lows coming up also. The big analog year for about two weeks now has been 1953, and that year did see some nice record lows in the spring.

It is interesting that the current state of the MJO said yesterdays 0z run was very unlikely, and now it looks that run was bogus!

R-Dub · #4116 Postby **R-Dub** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 10:02 am

OKAY I am having enough of this type of weather now, would like to have the sun back! Just been WAY too dark over the last several days now.
I am all for active weather in the winter, buts its spring now! Would like to go fishing, or wakeboarding and not freeze to death with pellets of rain hitting me in the face! I know I will be hated for this, but since next year will be back to normal I am sure, lets bring back the sun and warm, because soon enough we will be in for this type of active weather from next OCT, through next April!!

Lets bring that sun back!!!!!!

Currently at 8:00PM its raining with a temp of 42.8 degrees.

Looks like chances for thunder today is fading fast, also doesn't sound like much snow for the mountains today either.................

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PDT SUN APR 3 2005

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT JUST OFFSHORE MOVING MORE SLOWLY EASTWARD. COASTAL
MARINE OBS SHOWED A WIND SHIFT AT 10Z WITH A PRESSURE RISE AT BUOY
41. EITHER THE FRONT MIGRATED WELL UNDER CLOUD SHIELD OR THIS WAS
JUST AN EMBEDDED WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUDS
TO THE WEST OF THE COAST WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BAND
STILL ABOUT 150 NM OFFSHORE. FINE TUNED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THEM
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR 128.5W
TRAILING THE MAIN FRONT. 00Z NAM SHOWED A DEFINITE VORTICITY LOBE
DRIVING THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT INLAND THIS EVENING ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE TEMPORARILY INCREASED
THE CONFIDENCE FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT 06Z NAM IS WEAKER
WITH THE VORT LOBE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND.
WON`T YANK THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT IT`S CERTAINLY LOOKING LESS
LIKELY. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
AND LIFTED INDICIES NEAR ZERO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL END THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP HASN`T
DEVELOPED VERY STRONGLY YET...ETA12/MM5GFS QPF IS BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS AND POST FRONT WESTERLIES ARE WEAK.

andycottle · #4117 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 10:40 am

Thank you snow-wizzard! I do my best ...or at least try to do my best when it comes to picking out the details of the upcoming weather. Sometimes I get specific with my weather outlooks, and other times it`s less, with just a general outlook. And I think we all here do that here.

-- Andy

R-Dub · #4118 Postby **R-Dub** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 11:24 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SUN APR 3 2005

DISCUSSION...FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS A SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...PROBABLY DUE TO SPLITTING NATURE OF SYSTEM. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO JUST SAY RAIN TODAY AND TAKE OUT THUNDER.

FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH WEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT ENOUGH QPF EXPECTED TO GET SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS HOWEVER.

AnthonyC · #4119 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 11:55 am

Steady rain this morning as the cold front finally approaches the WA coast. As has been the case for all of Winter, the front split off the coast and most energy is heading into CA. A few inches of new snow for the cascades, but nothing to write home.

As for the extended, the GFS keeps us in a cool/wet pattern for the forseeable future. The troughs aren't as cold/strong as the past two weeks, but they will continue to reinforce the mountain snowpack and fill our reservoirs.

Nothing too exciting, but active for April.

Anthony

TT-SEA · #4120 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 03, 2005 12:08 pm

Wait a second here Anthony... you were the one telling us that the past few fronts were boring and uneventful. You seem to be injecting personal opinion (you want sun) rather than reporting facts!!

The overall pattern is very different than the one we had all winter. Hence... there are storms moving through every other day. There is a slight split right now... but that will once again consolidate and continue this wonderfully wet period.

At our house... we are at 10.08 inches of rain since this started on March 16th.

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