Better news for Florida

[boca]

The Bermuda High that caused the 4 hurricanes last year has weakened according to Jim Lushine of the national weather service.If we have a dry May that means the high has strengthened. If its rainy that's a good sign. Let's hope. The article is in the Sun Sentinel.

[cycloneye]

The Bermuda high may not be strong now in early April however it means anything because what matters is how strong and in what position it will be when the peak of the season August and September arrive and then we will see how Florida will be threatened or not depending on those both things.

[boca]

Luis read this:
Hurricane expert foresees flurry of named storms

By Ken Kaye
Staff Writer
Posted April 2 2005

The early prediction for this year's Atlantic hurricane season: anxiety.

Noted prognosticator William Gray on Friday forecast the season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, would be considerably more active than normal, with 13 named storms. Seven would be hurricanes, including three intense systems -- and one or two of those could easily strike the U.S. coast.











The season could be even busier, Gray said, if El Niño, an atmospheric condition that inhibits storm formation, fails to emerge by summer.

If his forecast holds true, this year would be similar to last year, when 15 named storms, including nine hurricanes -- six intense -- formed. As Florida residents well know, four of the hurricanes pounded this state.

"We expect this year to continue the trend witnessed over the last decade of above average hurricane seasons," said Gray, saying an average season has 10 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of them intense.

Some good news, at least for now: the Bermuda High, the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that drove the four hurricanes west toward Florida last year, has weakened, said meteorologist Jim Lushine of the National Weather Service in Miami.

If the ridge continues to deteriorate, that would allow storms to turn north, possibly before they reach the U.S. coast. However, forecasters are unsure whether the ridge will rebuild.

They will have a better read in May, when the amount of South Florida rainfall will be a critical indicator. If low, it means the ridge likely has strengthened. If rains are plentiful, the system likely has weakened, Lushine said.

"We're not sitting pretty, but the outlook is a little brighter," he said. "But it's still too early to call."

Gray and other experts doubt four hurricanes again will slam Florida because that kind of catastrophe happens once every 100 to 200 years, on average. Yet many of the same ingredients that made last year's season so devastating remain in place, including warm Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.

Gray, a Colorado State University professor, forecasts a 73 percent chance at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline, a 53 percent chance one will hit the East Coast, including Florida, and a 41 percent chance one will find the Gulf Coast.

All told, he calls for U.S. landfall probability to be about 140 percent of average.

"As it stands today, conditions in the Atlantic are very favorable for an active hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher on Gray's team.

Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com or 954-385-7911.

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[cycloneye]

Interesting articule there.He says it is early to tell what will happen with the ridge.But boca I agree that May and maybe June will be the important months to see how the Bermuda High settles.

[boca]

Another odd point is that its early April and were still getting cold fronts sweeping thru Florida and continuing beyond into the Bahamas which means weak Bermuda high.If the fronts were stalling over us that would mean the high is rebuilding.Too early too tell yet.

[StormChasr]

There is NO Bermuda high right now, whatsoever. Look at the radar, and watch cold front low, after cold front low sweep across Florida. Why don't all of the so-called "Experts" put a sock in it, and just wait and see? There has been 10 inches of rain in the last 3 weeks here, and T-storms are continuing as we speak.

[Scorpion]

The Bermuda High isn't supposed to be near Florida at this time. This is the season for cold fronts. Once summer takes a hold the Bermuda High will get stronger.Last summer we had plenty of thunderstorms as well, does that mean there was no Bermuda High? There are way too many people who think that just because Florida got hit in 2004 that we will never get hit again.

[StormChasr]

There are way too many people who think that just because Florida got hit in 2004 that we will never get hit again.

There are also way too many people who get their jollies forecasting doom and gloom for Florida. Right now, the conditions aren't setting up for the same situation as last year, and a repeat of 2004 is virtually impossible, even in an active hurricane season. If one uses 2003 as an analog (Dr.Gray's choice, not mine), Florida didn't get slammed by 4 storms then, nor is it likely to get the same treatment. There may be 15 named storms, and everyone of them might be fish, or there may be 15 named storms, and 5 of them hit Texas, Mississippi, or North Carolina, just as easily as 4 hit Florida this past year. It is anybody's GUESS--and should be treated exactly as that---a GUESS.

[Scorpion]

Nobody says that there will be a repeat of 2004. However, it is not out of the question for Florida to recieve a major hurricane.

[StormChasr]

Nobody says that there will be a repeat of 2004. However, it is not out of the question for Florida to recieve a major hurricane.

It is NEVER out of the question for Florida to receive a hurricane hit. Look at the Tropical Landfall project. Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties are almost a 100% chance of a hit in those areas in 50 years.

Remember, 1992 was a very sub-average hurricane season, only 4 hurricanes. We all remember the "A" storm

[Scorpion]

Exactly, so I believe noone should say that Florida is out of the woods this season. It only takes one.

[MGC]

A replay of 2004 for Florida is highly unlikely. Sure there is a chance of a hurricane or two for Florida any given hurricane season. I'm sure there is someone in Vegas willing to take a wager that Florida don't see a active season like 2004.......MGC

[gatorcane]

you all are so naive....the Bermuda High is very strong...it's ONLY APRIL people...wait until May/June and you will see the Bermuda High takeover....Florida WILL GET HIT BY A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 2005.....I absolutely guarantee it. The Bermuda high will establish itself in about one month from now....I bet anybody...Florida is in trouble for the next 20-40 years. People in S. Florida (Palm Beach/Ft. Lauderale/Miami) should be particularly concerned.....remember what I said....and email me at gatorchris78 at Yahoo dot com in a few months when you realize what will happen.

[Derek Ortt]

lasy post seems like either a wishcast, or a wild guess

[StormChasr]

Bermuda HIgh Strong???? You clearly don't live in Florida, whatever your nickname is Boca Chris. You're obviously a troll, and frankly, you're quite tiresome. If you did live in the Sunshine State, you'd know that there have been endless lows, and cold fronts streaming acroos the state for the last month---very heavy rainfall, and no "high pressure" sort of weather. Thus, you're not knowledgeable about Florida weather.

[boca]

Stormchasr what's your take on the Sun Sentinel article I posted and your right, no Bermuda high whatsoever. That's why cold fronts are still coming thru and I'm not complaining about 55 degress in April especially being in S FL when it could easily be 75 at night.

[StormChasr]

My take? I see a season with 11-14 named storms, but a very different pattern from last year. First, there's NO Bermuda High, and I don't even think that was the culprit. Derek Ortt alluded to a different set of circumstances, and I think he's right--there were troughs that set the landfall conditions in a unique, and statistically unpredicatable manner. I'd bet on an active season, with much fewer landfalls--and I think the area SOUTH of Cuba looks vulnerable, given the SSTs. If I were a betting man, I would say Mexico and the equatorial areas are most vulnerable, with a possible increase in the Gulf risk. I just don't see a repeat of 2004 in any way--if the troughs don't play "welcome home" for hurricanes, there may be a lot of fish--like previously active seasons. Look at the end of 2004---Karl and Lisa went fishy, as did others, as the pattern was in the process of changing.

Also, the water is just NOT warming up--it is unseasonably cold for April, and I just went scuba diving--BRRRRH--wet suit absolutely mandatory!!!

Last (note--this is not a negative, but a fact as shared with me). I got my Ph.D in math from Brown. I know several ppl in Brown, harvard, and MIT that are looking at this from a probability aspect, and they're not wild about Dr. Gray's forecasts--they dispute his variables, and claim that there are far too many variables to chart as neatly as he does. This is their opinion---I don't know what to think, as my backround is not very heavy in weather, and I never pretended to be a Met.

[Wnghs2007]

Stormchasr what's your take on the Sun Sentinel article I posted and your right, no Bermuda high whatsoever. That's why cold fronts are still coming thru and I'm not complaining about 55 degress in April especially being in S FL when it could easily be 75 at night.

The cold fronts are still coming thru because of the strong Pacific Jet that is blowing down the PNA ridge just long enough for closed lows and troughs to escape out of the Northwest. Since these dont have to go over the top of the ridge, (but right thru the remains of it), these systems dont lose as much punch and can plow thru the growing SE Ridge.

Soon however with the growing warm anomilies off the West Coast of North America (Which in term favor's a PNA Ridge), The Ridge will return and be able to withstand the force of the Pacific Jet.

However this will take atleast 2 to 3 weeks or maybe even longer for that to happen if the latest ECMWF is correct.

But there will still be plenty of time for the bermuda high to strengthen once the upper level convergence(at 500 mb hieght) of the Southeast Ridge Develops later this spring.

The main point is a lot is going to change within the Next Few months before the Peak of the Season Nears and the Cape Verde Season Begins. If were lucky the southeast ridge will weaken and an upper level trough will help guard the east coast from landfalling Storms. But until later this year we will not know if this is the case.

Sincerely, Wnghs2007

[Windtalker]

There really has not been that much rain...all the rain is falling from just north of Palm Beach and up through the southern states. I too think the high will be strong again come june and even reach lower in ladtitude than last year.

[The Big Dog]

Nobody says that there will be a repeat of 2004. However, it is not out of the question for Florida to recieve a major hurricane.

Well, you can only hope, and I'll know you'll be right there, guiding them all into Jupiter Inlet.