I did an analysis of the hurricane seasons of 1950-2004 and found the following with regard to ENSO as determined by region 3.4's AUG/SEP/OCT three month running mean:
Mod/Strong El Nino (+1.1 or higher): avg. of 8 storms
Weak El Nino (+0.5 through +1.0): avg. of 10 storms
Neutral (-0.4 through +0.4): avg. of 10 storms
Weak La Nina (-1.0 through -0.5): avg. of 11 storms
Mod/Strong La Nina (-1.1 or lower): avg. of 11 storms
Based on historical patterns as well as forecast models, the chances for any possible El Nino later this year being mod/strong are much smaller than it being weak. Based on what I'm currently seeing, the highest chances for the upcoming AUG/SEP/OCT period are that it would either be a weak El Nino or a neutral one. That would imply 10 storms on average either way. However, with the current very active period, the actual number would likely be higher than 10.
Strong El Nino avg 8 storms; Wk Nino/neut 10; La Nina 11
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Strong El Nino avg 8 storms; Wk Nino/neut 10; La Nina 11
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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HurricaneBill
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I think people are afraid we'll see a low amount of storms like in the 1970s-1990s el Ninos.
Keep in mind, this was when the Atlantic was in a period of less activity. Plus 1997 was one of the strongest el Ninos on record.
I doubt we'll have a season like 1969, but I doubt we'll have a season like 1972 or 1983 either.
Keep in mind, this was when the Atlantic was in a period of less activity. Plus 1997 was one of the strongest el Ninos on record.
I doubt we'll have a season like 1969, but I doubt we'll have a season like 1972 or 1983 either.
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