Your opinion on El Nino...

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Will there be an El Nino to hinder Hurricane Season 05'?

Yes, El Nino will develop and have a large impact
7
20%
No, El Nino will not develop or have a large impact
28
80%
 
Total votes: 35
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Anonymous

Your opinion on El Nino...

#1 Postby Anonymous » Wed Apr 06, 2005 11:53 am

What do you think?
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cyclonaut

#2 Postby cyclonaut » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:42 pm

Hows about the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino with little to moderate impact on the season.

Folks its April I dont see how a rip-roaring El Nino is going to get established in time to have a significant impact by the time the heart of the season arrives.
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:43 pm

I agree. If an El Nino does come, maybe like last season, where it starts by late October/November.
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Scorpion

#4 Postby Scorpion » Wed Apr 06, 2005 2:52 pm

It will have a minimal impact. Maybe 1 or 2 less storms than what I predicted.
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x-y-no
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:15 pm

For now, I remain an El Nino skeptic for this season. :-)

Ask again in mid-May. We ought to have a good idea by then whether I'm right or wrong.
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chadtm80

#6 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:35 pm

x-y-no wrote:For now, I remain an El Nino skeptic for this season. :-)

Ask again in mid-May. We ought to have a good idea by then whether I'm right or wrong.

Im with you x-y
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:47 pm

There are not clear signals about a El Nino developing right now in early April however a couple of months ahead will be a good timeframe to see what is going on at the subsurface of the equatorial pacific and if any other Wind Bursts form another Kelvin Waves.
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#8 Postby LarryWx » Wed Apr 06, 2005 4:39 pm

cyclonaut wrote:Hows about the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino with little to moderate impact on the season.


Very good point. My own analysis tells me that the chance for a moderate to strong El Nino this season is quite small whereas the chance for a weak El Nino is a good bit higher. I believe that either a neutral or weak El Nino is heavily favored.
Out of 11 weak El Nino heart of hurricane seasons since 1950, there have been 5 (45%) with 10 or more storms and 3 (27%) with 15+ storms. Weak El Nino's as well as neutral since 1950 have averaged 10 storms or near the longterm average for all years vs. only 8 storms for moderate to strong El Nino's.
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#9 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Apr 06, 2005 9:38 pm

Aren't twin cyclones (one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere at similar latitudes and longitudes) usually an indicator that an El Nino will develop?
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#10 Postby stormchazer » Thu Apr 07, 2005 7:54 pm

Weak El Nino with weak impact.
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#11 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Apr 08, 2005 10:41 am

HurricaneBill wrote:Aren't twin cyclones (one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere at similar latitudes and longitudes) usually an indicator that an El Nino will develop?


No ... the only good indicator with twin cyclones as you described is that there was usually a good westerly equatorial wind burst which helped induced cyclogenesis of the tropical cyclones.
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#12 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Apr 08, 2005 12:26 pm

Well x-y , you got me agree with you on one thing... wow!!

I am starting to think this talk of an El Nino is hog wash. Sudduth put up an interesting set of maps yesterday of the 1997 season at this time and this years SSTA maps. I think if you like hurricanes, your in for another long season. If you dont like hurricanes, maybe you should move to the west coast NOW!! lol

Jesse V. Bass III
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#13 Postby x-y-no » Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:09 pm

vacanechaser wrote:Well x-y , you got me agree with you on one thing... wow!!



Scary, isn't it? :eek:

No ... really. I bet we agree on more than one thing. 8-)
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#14 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Apr 08, 2005 3:49 pm

lol... i bet one of the things is i cant write... lol....

"you got me agree with you" .. lol.. pretty sad when you have nothing to do in the afternoon and i still dont read what i just typed..

Like you said in another post, the atlantic SST looks a lot different than in 1997... I think that may have more weight than a weak El Nino, if one even develops..


Jesse V. Bass III
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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