slight risk in sc

[brandybugg4180]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EDT WED APR 6 2005

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-071000-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AIKEN...AUGUSTA...BAMBERG...BARNWELL...
BATESBURG...BELVEDERE...BISHOPVILLE...BROOKDALE...CAMDEN...CAYCE...
CHERAW...CLEARWATER...COLUMBIA...DENMARK...DENTSVILLE...
EAST BOUNDARY...EVANS...FOREST ACRES...FORT GORDON...GROVETOWN...
IRMO...LANCASTER...LEXINGTON...MANNING...MARTINEZ...NEWBERRY...
NORTH AUGUSTA...OAK GROVE...ORANGEBURG...RED BANK...SEVEN OAKS...
SOUTH AUGUSTA...SOUTH SUMTER...SPRINGDALE...ST. ANDREWS...SUMTER...
THOMSON...VALENCIA HEIGHTS...WAYNESBORO...WEST AUGUSTA...
WEST COLUMBIA...WILKINSON HEIGHTS...WINNSBORO AND WOODFIELD
1034 PM EDT WED APR 6 2005

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 4 AM
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 6 AM. A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 8
AM AND NOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP 3/4 INCH HAIL WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH FROM NOON THROUGH 2
PM IN THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WEAKEN.


STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT http://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/CAE.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON.

[Stormsfury]

Severe threat may be a little overdone for SC today as limited insolation (sunshine limited) due to high cloudiness as not allowed for good destabilization of the atmosphere. The MCS that currently is ongoing in Florida continues to steal a lot of the thunder (and moisture) from the upstream squall line currently progressing thru South Carolina.

Tomorrow may be interesting ... with height falls and temperatures at the 500mb level (15,000 ft) falling to as low as -20ºC, any thunderstorm developing around the upper low will likely produce hail b/c of steep lapse rates, and such cold air aloft.

Nevertheless, isolated SVR remains a possilbility given with good divergence aloft, but limiting factors are poor SFC-based instability, and the MCS in the Gulf robbing a lot of the moisture upstream.

Heavy rains are still quite possible with 1"-2" possible since the overall rainshield w/thunder isn't progressing very fast.

SF