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andycottle
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#4201 Postby andycottle » Wed Apr 06, 2005 6:58 pm

Justin...maybe you were getting a cool breez as to the reason of your temp hitting 63. Like Anthony, I too had a high of 70. Skies have been mainly overcast today. Currently 65 degrees here at 5:05pm. -- Andy
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#4202 Postby andycottle » Wed Apr 06, 2005 8:03 pm

Hmmm....not much action on the board today :roll: You all must be out enjoying the mild temps! 8-) -- Andy
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#4203 Postby W13 » Wed Apr 06, 2005 8:47 pm

Yes, we have been getting a very light NW breeze today. That must be it.
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#4204 Postby R-Dub » Wed Apr 06, 2005 8:51 pm

andycottle wrote:Randy....you should get your camera out and shoot some pics of the boats on the lake.8-)

Currently 69.3 degrees here with filtered sun. Baro at 29.59 and continuing to fall. -- Andy


Here you go Andy...............

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Currently 60.4 degrees at almost 7:00PM!
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#4205 Postby andrewr » Wed Apr 06, 2005 8:53 pm

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#4206 Postby andycottle » Wed Apr 06, 2005 9:02 pm

Good pics, Randy....and lol...someone sure looks to be have`n a blast out there! Currently cloudy and 61 degrees. -- Andy
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#4207 Postby andycottle » Wed Apr 06, 2005 10:42 pm

Latest 18z GFS this evening showing a rather cool trough moving through our area mid-late tomorrow that has 850MB heights of 1320 to 1350 and temps of around 0 to -2C per MM5 model. MM5 also shows 500MB temps of -26 to -28C and vorticity heights of 540DM. And if GFS along with MRF...is correct, we should see plenty of showers for tomorrow and lifted index near 0 or slightly above. CAPE values barely reaching 100 J/KG. Seattle MOS has high of 51 tomorrow with 12hr T-Storm probabilty of only about 20%. So any sunbreaks that we do get after the frontal passage, will likely aid in the develoment in isolate/scattered T-Storm activity.

In the extened outlook, some very warm and sunny conditions may be heading our was in little over a week from now....or roughly around the 15th/16th time frame of when the High starts to build. Though the high looks to only last a few days. -- Andy
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#4208 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Apr 07, 2005 1:04 pm

Thanks for positng that Andrew! I love it!

The 12z run is INCREDIBLE! It shows a massive, deep, and very cold trough for the 4.5 to 8 day period.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_120m.htm

If it verifies, we will see well below normal temperatures and frozen precip in the lowlands (that could even mean some wet snow). The most likely scenario would be as follows.

1. Partly cloudy and cold mornings

2. Rapidly increasing clouds as we reach convective temperatures (mid to upper 40s)

3. Showers and thundershowers by early afternoon. This will cause the temps in the late afternoon to be cooler than the late morning.

4. Partly cloudy by mid evening as the low levels become cold again and the covection dies out.

5. Clear to partly cloudy in the nighttime hours.

That could repeat for about three straight days next week. That situation brings our most below normal temps in April. Clear nights allow cold lows, and showers in the day keeps the highs very low!
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#4209 Postby andycottle » Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:13 pm

Viewing this mornings 6z and 12z GFS...it appears that our somewhat showery and cool weather will last right into next week, though systems don`t appear to be all too well organized and somewhat splitting apart as they head ashore. And like snow wizzard mentioned, a nice and very cool upper level trough could be over our region by the 12th to give us some very active weather during the afternoon hours. -- Andy
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#4210 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:00 pm

I saw a weather map last night or early this morning that showed snow all the way from the West coast across the rockies this weekend(I think). I mean it covered most of Washington, including the Seattle area, most of Oregon, a lot of N CA, etc. Is that at all probable?
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#4211 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:10 pm

Some interesting weather located between Seattle and Everett.

Currently experiencing a heavy rain squall with dark clouds visible in the north direction. Things could get more active this afternoon.

As for the person above, Seattle doesn't get snow in the middle of April...NO ACCUMULATING snow has ever fallen down to sea level after March. There's been one case of wet snow in the downtown region on April 24, but it did not accumulate. So I highly doubt that weather map is correct.

In the extended, the GFS insists on a decent trough setting up on Sunday through most of next week. Hopefully this helps the mountain passes...currently they're both experiencing rain with temperatures in the middle 40s. If this continues, they won't be open for much longer. But frozen precipitation in the lowlands? I don't think so. Not saying it can't happen, but I find it hard to believe in the middle of April. Next week is my SPRING BREAK...not WINTER BREAK!! lol.

Anthony
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#4212 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:13 pm

Just heard a clap of thunder in the northwestern distance. Looks like an intense squall line should move through my area in the next 20 minutes. I'll keep you informed.
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#4213 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:20 pm

No doubt about it! A very intense C Zone is showing up on the radar. Very unusual with a SW flow! To mkae things even more improbable the zone looks like it moving southward quite quickly and is almost to Seattle. A very strange sequence of events today for sure.

Anthony...you are forgetting about the 2.5 inches that Sea - Tac had in mid April of 1972. We have also had lowland snow in April on a number of occaisions in the past. I may post those later! Palmer (near Ravensdale) had 12 inches in April 1945. As for frozen precip in the lowlands next week...I think hail and graupel are almost certain.
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#4214 Postby R-Dub » Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:57 pm

Pouring with a temp of 46 degrees at 3:00PM. Been a very wet day!!
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#4215 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Apr 07, 2005 5:36 pm

It's been pooring rain for over an hour now. I would say at least a quarter of an inch...if not approaching a half an inch.

The PSCZ is starting to fizzle and move off to the east...though R-Dub might experience it for a few more hours. As for the next system, not looking too impressive for Western Washington as the jet stream is aimed at northern California. A moderate surface low is projected to make landfall around Portland which should help wrap-around moisture make it as far north as about Everett. But not too much impact from this system.

The GFS continues the cool trough beginning Sunday thru at least Tuesday...afternoon high temperatures below normal and a showery pattern...perfect for the mountain passes as snow levels should remain below 3k for that extended period. I guess perfect weather for Snow_Wizzard. lol.

Anthony
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#4216 Postby W13 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 7:29 pm

snow_wizzard,

Where do you get all of this weather data from Palmer from way back in the 70's and even earlier? If you have it on your computer, share the wealth. :D
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#4217 Postby R-Dub » Thu Apr 07, 2005 8:47 pm

Has not rained like this up here in a long time! The rain has finally let up a bit, still coming down though. We have had about .75" for the day. Oh yesterday seems so long ago now with a high of 70 degrees and partly cloudy skies :lol:
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#4218 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Apr 07, 2005 11:25 pm

Where's the activity?

Looking at latest satellite images, a fairly compact system is heading into Oregon. The surface low is rapidly deepening, but should have little affect on Western Washington. Areas from Olympia south should see some decent rainfall tomorrow...Bellingham might stay dry. It's a quick mover and pressures aren't too low...thus southern Oregon should not see a windstorm.

Anthony
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#4219 Postby invisible » Fri Apr 08, 2005 12:20 am

I am a little surprised that the mountain called Coqihulla (1,220 m) is getting some snow right now. The currently temperature for Hope, B.C. is 47 F with sw wind. That town is right below of the mounatin. On the top of the mounatin usually get 10-12 degrees colder than that town.
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#4220 Postby snow_wizzard » Fri Apr 08, 2005 12:31 am

Justin,

I have the daily records for Palmer back to 1930. It is a huge file that is rather hard to post or share. I will tell you one thing for sure...there are some snowstorms and cold spells in there that would knock your socks off! Would you believe they had 116 inches of snow in Jan 1950 with a maximum depth of 62 inches! The winter of 1948 - 49 was also totally amazing out there. They had snow on the ground every day from early Dec through early March. Even Jan 2004 had some pretty serious drifts that I saw! I might be able to email you the file if your email is capable of handling a few megabytes at one time. Those records cost me $70.00, but I am glad to share them. For anyone that's interested I also have records for Clearbrook, which is very close to Sumas back to 1930. Talk about some bloody cold stuff! This is all part of my project to pick out the ultimate place to live in Western WA.

Invisible...The 850mb temps are down to about -3 or -4 right now, so snow could fall down to about 1500 - 2000 feet! This is the way April used to be...back in the good old days!
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