Floydbuster's 2005 Hurricane Season Forecast

[Anonymous]

Since 2002, I have given my annual forecast, so here it is::

NEUTRAL ENSO- Not too favorable, not too unfavorable.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES- Above average, especially in the East Atlantic.

EL NINO- Of everything I have heard, from Bill Gray, to other's opinions, I do not foresee an El Nino, atleast not any sigificant effects on this season.

QBO- I am mixed on this. Although, it seems to be less and less of an issue nowadays.

RIDGE- I am mixed on this as well, although, from what I heard, it appears likely that the ridge will build similar to last season.

NAMED STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 8
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

I think the United States will see about 5 impacts from systems, including three hurricanes, two of those being major hurricanes.

To see my "HYPOTHETICAL FORECAST" for individual storms, you may see it here:
http://www.freewebs.com/naso2005forecast/

Leave a comment if you like.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is a personal opinion forecast, and you should not rely on this forecast for anything other than opinions.

[boca]

Flydbuster you seem to out due yourself evey year it gets better and better great read especially living 30 miles from Hallandale.

[Stormtrack03]

Thanks for your thoughts floydbuster .

[Anonymous]

Outdue myself? Is that a bad thing or a compliment? LOL...I remember I was too much in 2002... too little in 2003.... and 15/10/9 in 2004...I was one hurricane too many. I try my best, and we'll just see what happens, thank you for the compliment.

[boca]

Floydbuster this is up your alley I need hurricane wallpaper for my computer is their such a site?

[cyclonaut]

just go to any site where there are pics of canes,save the pics you like & use them as wallpaper.

[Anonymous]

Floydbuster this is up your alley I need hurricane wallpaper for my computer is their such a site?

My wallpaper is a space image of Hurricane Ivan while in the Caribbean.

[cajungal]

You got Hurricane Gert making landfall at Grand Isle as a Category 4! I know the forecast was just for fun and unless you are phychic, you don't know what is going to happen. I enjoyed reading it; though. I hope Grand Isle does not get a hurricane. It will wipe them off the map. Even a Tropical Storm puts the island under. I hope nothing happens in Destin, Florida August 4th through the 11th. That is when my condo is booked. And I want nothing but sunshine on my vacation.

[Anonymous]

GUT. My gut has been odd and close some years, I can remember a few...

2002:
Hurricane Lili as a Cat 1 into SE Florida

2003:
Hurricane Fabian as a Cat 4 into Florida, and Isabel as a strong TS into the Panhandle.

2004:
Hurricane Charley as a Strong Cat 4 in the Gulf hitting Mexico.
Hurricane Frances as a strong Cat 1 into SW Florida
Hurricane Ivan as a major hurricane into North Carolina
Hurricane Karl as a Cat 2 into Gulf Shores, AL

[cajungal]

I go by gut; too. But, only when the actual Hurricane would form never before. I predicted Bill would hit Cocodrie, LA as a tropical storm. I correctly predicted Lili, I knew we would be under the gun. But, at the last minute, I knew in my heart, we would once again be spared. I also was almost dead on for Ivan. I knew we would at least go under a warning, but I correctly predicted Gulf Shores, Alabama. I love reading your forecasts. Keep them coming. Who knows? Those predictions just might happen.

[T'Bonz]

LOL, no offense man, but I hope your scenario is dead wrong, especially concerning "Gert".

**books flight up north for early September, just in case.**

[Andrew92]

Nice forecast Mike! Here's mine:

Arlene - Out to sea TS

Bret - Ditto to Arlene

Cindy - Strong GOM TS, hits MS, minimal damage, but near hurricane

Dennis - Brushes southern FL, then Outer Banks, both as C1, then out to sea, little damage

Emily - C2 fish

Franklin - See Emily

Gert - The One, path is similar and cyclogenesis make this one almost a Frances clone, though not nearly as much damage....still, bad enough hitting Florida as a C3 (but weakened from a C4) and the central GOM as a surprising C2.

Harvey - C4, strongest of the year, threatens Outer Banks but heads out to sea

Irene - Similar to Cindy, but hits FL panhandle, little damage

Jose - A monstrous October C3 for the Keys before heading out to sea.

Katrina - Weak TS fish, but a caveat that if Jose isn't big, Katrina might be instead

Lee - Out to sea C1

Maria - Weak out to sea TS

No Nate or any further in 2005.

-Andrew92

[Anonymous]

I remember back in early 2004...I thought about the 2005 name Gert. I said to myself, "That sounds like a Category 4 that would hit SW Florida and move across".....

[James]

That was a good forecast and your individual storm accounts were interesting.

[vacanechaser]

Nice forecast FB... The only thing I think I would disagree with you on is the lack of a Carolinas threat. I think Mark and I will be there again this year but this time dealing with a major hurricane. For some reason I have this feeling that it would be close to a cane like Floyd, Gloria, Emily, something like that. Huge hurricane with a real threat but pulls an Alex and skirts the coast..


Gulf Of Mexico may see a repeat of the 2002 season with one headed for the Texas coast. Could rival Bret in 1999.

Just a few of my own thoughts..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Anonymous]

Some of my forecast was optimistic. Hurricane "IRENE" for instance. What are the chances that, if the ridge were in place, a weakness would occur to stop it from hitting the USA? Not that high. Nevertheless, let's hope the USA gets a break.