Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Justin...I think we are going to do very well this week! The models are showing that the upper level flow will be WSW for much of the week, which will allow the moisture to hook around the south end of the Olympics, and into south King County. By Thusday night or so the trough is supposed to move inland and put us into a true NW flow. If the flow is actually NW and not WNW the C zone will make it to south King County. The really good news is that with 850mb temps of -5C at that time, frozen precip of some kind is very possible. I would say that places like Palmer have a good chance of seeing some wet snow on Thursday night, IF the GFS is correct.

In general, I think the NWS is underestimating just how cold this trough is going to be. The GFS is showing 850mb ranging from -3 to -6C all the way from tomorrow morning through Friday! That is exceptional for this time of year. Any clear nights will have frost and any days that are totally cloudy and wet will have highs below 50. I will say again...this is 1950s type weather. I am sure that you will all be believers by the time next winter is over!

[snow_wizzard]

Wow!! Have you guys seen the MONSTEROUS pool of cold air showing up behind the cold front? This is going to be an awsome weather week for us! The ECMWF is now on board in showing a second trough for us in the 8 - 10 period. Keep it coming!

I think some people are going to be astounded at how cold and nasty this week is going to be. This seige of cold air looks like it will exceed anything we have seen since the massive weather change came a couple of weeks ago (especially for duration). Nobody is going to dampen my spirits on this one.

[TT-SEA]

This will be an exciting week. Should be some fun convergence zones setting up.

But again... this is not that unusual for April. It has happened many times outside of the 1950's. Even last year had some cold troughs in April. In fact... it happens to some degree almost every April.

And analogs from the 1950's right now are meaningless for next winter. The chances of a pattern exactly the same as the 1950's holding for months on end is ZERO.

Those analogs years change every time you run the models.

Lets just enjoy this week for what it is and not try to use it as an indicator of next winter. That is just silly.

We are just balancing out our dry winter. This is our February weather. Nothing more.

[andycottle]

Good evening all. Just a quicky on the weather outlook from the GFS and then I`ll be back here at the board later on tonight after I do some school work.

Ok....from the looks of the GFS, our very cool and showery weather continues right through Thursday with maybe a couple dry days on Friday and Saturday. Then the Sunday - Monday period(17th/ 18th), another cool and showery trough sets up over our area to gives more active and very unsetteled weather. So....we should have an interesting weather week ahead.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... you know quite a bit about local weather but this article makes me think you are not so wise and much too easily excited to be objective.

Although I want to end this drought... I know better than to laugh at state officials that have to make decisions that affect millions of people's lives.

This drought is not over.

http://www.komotv.com/stories/36201.htm

[TT-SEA]

The radar sure showed that was a downpour! It sure is hard to believe that some people think we are still in a drought. This is certainly the soggiest drought in the history of mankind!

I knew they should have waited a month before they declared the drought emergency. What a joke....

This is what I am talking about. We are in a drought. You lose credibility when you make comments like this.

[andycottle]

Hey I`m back now. Currently we have light rain with a temp of 45, humidity 100%, and baro 29.68 and slowly falling. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Looking at tonights GFS...looks like a very active few days here in Western Washington as a cool upper trough will be over our area. Wednesday could especaily be VERY active with T-Storms, as the NGM model is showing lifted index of -4. Per Seattle NWS AFD from early this afternoon, CAPE could be well into the 300 J/KG range. Not to sure on how strong shearing will be....but seeing the models and reading what NWS has to say....this tells my that the real likely hood exitist for some T-Storms to go severe with probably the main threat being small hail and maybe an isolate funnel cloud or two. This could very well be the most active weather day out of the three or four day(Mon - Thurs) time span!

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I happen to think the state is lying to us in calling this a severe drought. That is just plain proposterous! The rainfall total for Seattle and much of western Washington for this year, is only a few inches below normal. We have had many, many years that have been dryer, in the past. They are making way too much of the low snowpack. It will be going up at a time of year when it's normally dropping. I will say the state was irresponsible in raising the red flag so prematurely. I will stand by my prediction that we will come out of this with little more than some minor inconvenience. It just kills me that they have so little imagination that they can't envision a wet spring and or summer. They just make it seem like it's a fait accompli that we are going to wither up and blow away this year. Oh the horror of it all! They are going to spends million of dollars preparing for a non event. Mark my words.

Whether you like Rush Limbaugh or not, he is correct when he says that liberals are never comfortable unless they have a "crisis" to worry about. Our unfairly elected new governor is a liberal with a capital "L"!

I guess we will see who is losing credibility this year, won't we? I do not apologize for the fact that I know more about our weather history than all but MAYBE 5 or 6 people. It seems that should give me the right to go out on a limb when I recognize something is up. The day will come that you'll see I do know something!

[W13]

What is with the temperature swings today? Over the last several hours the temperature has been going up a few degrees, then down a few degrees, then up again and so on and so forth. Been doing that all morning. Currently 46 F (was 48F just a few minutes ago, and around 44F a few minute before that). Puzzling.

[snow_wizzard]

Justin...It's the power of the sun fighting with the very cold airmass we have over us. Every time the sun peeks out the temperature is "artificially" raised and then when it goes away the temperature falls back very quickly.

The fun is already beginning! There is already hail being reported at a number of location, and this should become widespread as a band of showers makes its way NE. The real fun is going to be tomorrow and Wednesday when things really get unstable. Large hail, and some thunderhsowers bordering on severe are going to be possible in all areas! The models are clear that low number 2, which will arrive over the weekend, will be a closed low that will park itself right on top of us. Historically, that is a great thunderstorm pattern. With a closed low showers can become nearly stationary, thus clobbering the area where they set up with copious amounts of rain or hail.

As for my last post...Sorry if I went a bit over the top. I just cannot stand so called experts saying that several feet of snow and several inches of rain did no good. I could buy them saying it was a start, but we need more. But, thses clowns said it did NO good. Give me a break!

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... I agree with your last comment. To say the rain and snow has done "nothing" to reduce the threat is just as extreme.

[W13]

Currently 39 F and dropping as we have moderate rain and breezy winds. Could this possibly be a second C Zone setting up in south King County/Pierce County? I sure hope so.

Pictures to follow ....

[snow_wizzard]

39 degrees on the East Hill of Kent at 11:30am! Now that is cold for this time of year. That report is from Millennium Elementary. In Covington a 25 mph west wind just blew in here with plunging temps. I love it! Yee haw!!

[W13]

Here are some pictures I took about 10 minutes ago:

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/xbmedia/detail?.dir=/102d&.dnm=fff2.jpg

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/xbmedia/detail?.dir=/102d&.dnm=6eb6.jpg

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/xbmedia/detail?.dir=/102d&.dnm=17e0.jpg

I will take some more if the conditions change. At the moment, the rain looks to be getting heavier.

snow_wizzard,

Can't wait until we finally get some thunderstorms and hail around the area. It has been ages!

[W13]

39 degrees on the East Hill of Kent at 11:30am! Now that is cold for this time of year. That report is from Millennium Elementary. In Covington a 25 mph west wind just blew in here with plunging temps. I love it! Yee haw!!

Yep, my outdoor thermometer says 37-38F, so I would say the Millenium ES site is pretty acurate for my area (only about 2.5 miles away from me, and -150 feet of elevation or so).

[TT-SEA]

O.K... here is proof that this current pattern does NOT mean a cold, snowy winter to come.

The analog years with a similar pattern in early spring are...

1955
1957
1963
1989
1991


The following are the snowfall totals for Seattle the following winters:

1955-56 - 19.6 inches
1957-58 - NO SNOW
1963-64 - 1.5 inches
1989-90 - 9.8 inches (all in one storm on 2/17/90 followed by record warmth)
1991-92 - NO SNOW


It could be snowy next winter. But this pattern is not an indicator of that at all. Enough of this speculation.

One more thing to note... all of these years had fairly normal summer weather. Not entirely dry... not exceptionally wet. The months of May and June in all 5 years were notably drier than April though.

Summer is coming and it should be pretty nice!!

[andycottle]

Good early afternoon you all! So far skies have been partly cloudy, though we did have a few showers late this morning. Also...we are having breezy winds at times, so will have to go to a check of the wind with hand held anemometer. Currently my temp is 50 with partly skies and baro 29.77 and steady. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

A nice red blip on the radar heading right for Covington! I hope it hits us.

TT...We will have agree to disagree...you are never going to change my mind about this. I have been looking at the analogs that have been coming up consistently. 1951, 1955, 1988. To a lesser extent 1953, 1971, 1984. All good winters.

[W13]

We have another heavy shower over us. The winds are picking up a little bit and the temperature has dropped down to 40 F from 43 F just a few minutes ago. The sky is absolutely dark grey. Very gloomy.