Severe Threat TX Sunday

[southerngale]

Actually that day two outlook is now a moderate, they made some severe mistakes when outlining the outlook points. The graphic shows it correctly.

Thanks...I edited it.

[Yankeegirl]

Had a few sprinkles of rain on the winshield when I went to go get lunch...

[KatDaddy]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of Central TX. From San Antonio to Dallas.

Instabilty parameters are amazing. The Houston-Galveston including all of SE TX will not miss this severe weather outbreak. It looks to be a very rough night between midnight and 8AM Monday.

DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF WHEN TO END PRECIP...THE AREA IS
GOING TO GET POPPED TONIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE REACHING
OBSCENE LEVELS WITH LI'S BETWEEN -7 AND -10...CAPES AROUND 3000...
HELICITIES BETWEEN 250 AND 300 AND PW'S BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A DRY PUNCH AT 700 MB.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BETWEEN 05Z AND 13Z. MAIN THREAT BOW ECHOES...DOWNBURST AND LARGE
HAIL. HELICITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISOLATED TORNADOES.

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of Central TX. From San Antonio to Dallas.

Instabilty parameters are amazing. The Houston-Galveston including all of SE TX will not miss this severe weather outbreak. It looks to be a very rough night between midnight and 8AM Monday.

DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF WHEN TO END PRECIP...THE AREA IS
GOING TO GET POPPED TONIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE REACHING
OBSCENE LEVELS WITH LI'S BETWEEN -7 AND -10...CAPES AROUND 3000...
HELICITIES BETWEEN 250 AND 300 AND PW'S BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A DRY PUNCH AT 700 MB.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BETWEEN 05Z AND 13Z. MAIN THREAT BOW ECHOES...DOWNBURST AND LARGE
HAIL. HELICITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISOLATED TORNADOES.

It seems like lately when Central Texas gets hammered, it fizzles out before it gets here. My very NON-meteorological opinion would be to expect the same. However, you (they) seem fairly confident. What's different this time?

[Shoshana]

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE REACHING OBSCENE LEVELS

Hmmm ... I wonder how they measure this level?

And is that for Central Texas or SE Texas? I'm a little confused.

Overcast here.

'shana

[jeff]

Severe Thunderstorms Watch for most of N TX, C TX and SW TX until 1100pm.

TCu along dry line from W of Fort Worth to W of Austing starting to develop into CB's as noted by radar echoes and visible images.

Air mass is unstable along dry line with CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and LI's of -4 to -8. Severe convection will greatly increase by early to mid evening as strong lift overspreads the dry line and warm sector. Strong to severe squall line/MCS can be expected from SE OK into SW TX with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

Air mass over SE TX is very unstable with LI's from -7 to -10 and CAPES over 3000-3500 J/kg. Surface low forming over NE Mexico will ride NE tonight with numerous thunderstorms developing over SC TX and the coastal bend. Backed low level flow ahead of this feature will increase helicity values over the coastal plains with a slight increase in the tornado potential.

Hard to say how this will all play out as mesoscale effects will take over by late tonight into early Monday. However, SE and E TX into LA will get rocked pretty good with all severe modes possible along with excessive rainfall.

[southerngale]

Local NWS site seems to be down but 2 of the local stations here are calling for 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.

Lately, we haven't gotten anything remotely close to severe when it's been possible. In fact, last week we were in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and it broke apart and I didn't even get a drop of rain. lol

Locals have upped it from 70% to 80% FWIW. And NWS is up...80% for tonight (I'm assuming late tonight) and 80% tomorrow.

Excerpt from KFDM:
Things coming together for a Severe Weather event Monday between daybreak and noon as strong upper trough and cold front move across the region. Data shows very strong lift around 7-8 a.m Monday morning.

[JenBayles]

The latest from the Houston NWS office FWIW - which isn't much. So far today they've changed the chance of rain tonite from 70%, 80%, 90%, 100% and now back to 90%. Methinks I shall rely on jeff!

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then periods of showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, after 1am. Low near 69. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Monday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 78. South wind around 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

[Yankeegirl]

I hate those 90% over confident thoughts on rain and severe weather. Last time the chances were that high we got nuttin! Im still going to water my lawn tonight!

[jeff]

Dry line convection struggling this evening over N and C TX, however a look at the WV reveals a strong jet streak rounding through NC Mexico and heading for SW and SC TX. Strong ascent noted by mid level cloud enhancement over NC Mexico and N of Midland.

Low level winds have backed to the E over most of SE TX and the coastal bend and PWS are surging into the 1.4-1.6 range providing scattered areas of light rainfall around Houston right now under a still decent capping inversion.

As strong ascent overspreads the now very moist and unstable warm sector, capping should be removed and lots of energy released. Storms should quickly congeal into a cluster or MCS over C and SC TX and spread E to ENE through the night. Main threat will be damaging winds and large hail, although one or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the backed low level flow.

In addition to the severe threat very heavy rainfall will be possible. Surface dewpoints are now in the mid 60's to near 70 over SE TX and the coastal bend with PWS around 1.5 inches. PM soundings are saturated below 700mb with a dry pocket above that level. Storm motions will be fast (30mph) to the NE, however there is a decent potential for entrainment along any SW to NE oriented mesoscale boundary. Flash flood threat is more conditional on system speed and evolution.

[Yankeegirl]

Severe thunderstom watch till 5 am just north and west of the houston area.. My weather radio is going off, different voices, sounds odd... also a hazardous weather outlook setting off the radio. never heard this before!

[Shoshana]

As far as I can tell from the tv and internet, we're in new Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 5am. Still hasn't done anything - radar shows that the line of storms is iiiinching closer.

I don't see any faraway lightning yet either.

Waiting waiting waiting...

Hope we at least get rain, we finally got the Weed n Feed down!

'shana

[Yankeegirl]

I hope we get some of the rain too! Im going to bed... maybe i will be woken up around 5 cause of thunder.... niters!

[Shoshana]

Just heard first thunder. Seeing general lightning, nothing major.

We're east of I-35, so it will go thru most of Austin before we see anything...

'shana

[Houstonia]

Fine time for the NWS to be moving! Well, I guess they had to do it before hurricane season starts.

Some of the forecasts seem to be coming from the Bay City office (this is as per my mother, Meteorological Mom). I guess it explains the different voices and not just the computer voice.

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NWS OFFICE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OPERATIONS FROM
THE NEW LOCATION ON APRIL 15TH.

WHILE MOST NWS PROGRAMS WILL CONTINUE NORMALLY...SOME NWS SERVICES
WILL BE INTERRUPTED OR PARTIALLY DEGRADED DURING THE MOVE. WARNINGS
AND FORECASTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL NOT BE IMPACTED...EXCEPT FOR
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO. NAHR WILL REMAIN IN SERVICE...BUT WILL BE
UNABLE TO GENERATE AUTOMATED TONE ALERTS WHICH ACTIVATE EAS AND RADIOS
EQUIPPED WITH THE SAME (SPECIFIC AREA MESSAGE ENCODER) FEATURE.
TELEPHONE TRAFFIC TO NWS FORECASTERS WILL BE RELAYED FROM THE OLD
OFFICE TO THE FORECASTERS AT JSC DURING THE BACKUP PERIOD...SO CALLS
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN USUAL...PLEASE BE PATIENT.

THE NEW NWS OFFICE WILL BE IN THE GALVESTON COUNTY EMERGENCY FACILITY
AT 1353 FM 646 IN LEAGUE CITY. WE WILL BE CO-LOCATED ON THE SECOND
FLOOR WITH THE GALVESTON COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THIS
NEW FACILITY WILL ALSO HOUSE THE GALVESTON COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS
DISTRICT ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICES AND A CONTINGENT OF THE TEXAS DIVISION
OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THE NEW FACILITY IS DESIGNED TO WITHSTAND
THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE...THUS ENABLING UNINTERRUPTED SERVICE FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND COUNTY AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGERS
IN ANY WEATHER.

[Shoshana]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 12:13 am CDT on April 11, 2005


The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the following counties...
Travis
Hays
Comal

* until 115 am CDT

* at 1205 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing large damaging hail up to
Golf Ball size. This storm was located 8 miles west of Fischer...
and moving northeast at 40 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include Wimberley... Woodcreek...
Driftwood... Buda... Tanglewood Forest... Onion Creek... West Lake
Hills... Rollingwood... Austin... Bergstrom and Garfield.

Lat... Lon 3008 9766 2988 9828 2986 9835 2987 9838
2994 9842 3004 9829 3007 9829 3010 9826
3037 9762 3036 9759 3020 9752

VTEC:/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0088.050411T0513Z-050411T0615Z/

I guess that's what I'm hearing!

'shana

[Shoshana]

Now they're naming neighborhoods.

he National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the following counties...
Travis

* until 215 am CDT

* at 110 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail. This
storm was located near Mansfield dam... and moving east at 45 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include West Lake Hills...
Rollingwood... Anderson Mill... Austin... Windemere... Pflugerville and
Manor.

Lat... Lon 3042 9801 3029 9798 3020 9754 3043 9738
3050 9759 3044 9783 3056 9793

VTEC:/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0090.050411T0614Z-050411T0715Z/

[Portastorm]

Hey all ... I had to get online and post this. We just had an incredible hailstorm here in far north Austin (about 8 miles NW of the city proper). Hail about quarter sized fell for 5 minutes straight. I thought the windows were going to break at one point.

So weird to have a hailstorm this late at night it seems. Anyhow, don't know about you Shoshana .. but we got nailed here ... this storm by far was the worst.

And the strangest? Our dog was acting very peculiar from 30 minutes before until the storm and kept trying to wake us up (I was already awake). His behavior was unusual ... like this late-night, rock-n-roll storm. Sheesh ... gotta try and go back to bed now!!

Michael

[Yankeegirl]

uh.. we still havent gotten squat....

[jeff]

Severe Thunderstorms continue to develop along a stalled dry line from W Colorado County TX to C Walker County TX.

Large scale ascent ahead of approaching upper level trough along with very moist and unstable air mass should continue and increase the thunderstorm coverage this morning along and E of the dry line. Cell entrainment is leading to high rainfall totals over Grimes int Trinity coutnies where Flood advisories are in effect.

Large hail and damdging winds will be the main threats although one or two tornadoes will be possible as cells stay scattered.

WW 149 in effect until 1100am